Poll: Ron DeSantis maintains slight edge on Nikki Fried
Conflict for Governor, Commish.

DeSantis Fried 3.25.21
It's close, but outside the margin of error.

If Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried wins the Democratic nomination for Governor, incumbent Ron DeSantis remains the favorite for reelection. But he still doesn’t have the support of a majority of voters, and she’s within striking distance of the incumbent more than a year out from the vote.

That’s according to a new survey by St. Pete Polls. More than 45% of respondents would vote to reelect DeSantis to a second term in a head-to-head matchup between the two statewide elected officials, while just under 42% would pick Fried.

Fried, the only Democrat holding statewide office, announced earlier this year she would challenge DeSantis instead of seeking another term at her current post.

Pollsters included respondents from a substantial number of likely voters, 3,952 of them. That gives pollsters high confidence in results in the head-to-head, and they report just a 1.6% margin of error. That puts DeSantis’ lead just barely outside the margin.

The same poll found U.S. Rep. Charlie Crist, the other major Democratic candidate in the race, with a narrow 45% to 44% lead over DeSantis.

More than 13% of voters remain undecided in their choice between Fried and DeSantis, a higher percentage of unsure voters than in the Crist-DeSantis matchup. That may indicate voters have less familiarity with Fried than Crist, a three-term Congressman and former Governor.

But there’s also a greater partisan loyalty toward DeSantis than Fried, the only Democrat now holding statewide office. About 68% of Democrats would vote for Fried, compared to 75% of Republicans who stick with DeSantis. Both candidates swipe about 17% support among the opposition party, but 15% of Democrats remain on the fence while only 8% of Republicans would be undecided in this matchup.

Of note, while Fried would be Florida’s first woman elected Governor, she performs better among men than women. More than 42% of male voters pick Fried, while just 41% of female voters prefer her over DeSantis. DeSantis boasts support from 46% of male voters and 45% of women.

But among voters under the age of 50, Fried leads the Governor. If only voters under 30 get included in the results, the Democrat holds a 48% to 40% lead. Voters older than 30 but younger than 50 break her way by a 45% to 42% margin.

But DeSantis leads among voters over 50 and younger than 70 by the same 45% to 42% gap, and among older voters, he wins more than 51% of the vote, and Fried takes just around 35%

Jacob Ogles

Jacob Ogles has covered politics in Florida since 2000 for regional outlets including SRQ Magazine in Sarasota, The News-Press in Fort Myers and The Daily Commercial in Leesburg. His work has appeared nationally in The Advocate, Wired and other publications. Events like SRQ’s Where The Votes Are workshops made Ogles one of Southwest Florida’s most respected political analysts, and outlets like WWSB ABC 7 and WSRQ Sarasota have featured his insights. He can be reached at [email protected]


  • Jan D

    August 4, 2021 at 8:27 am

    Florida has a chance to make the necessary change in leadership next election by voting out this Trump puppet. DeSantis lacks the ability to make good decisions because he would rather stay in the good graces of his party than represent ALL of citizens fairly and equitably in Florida. He is a FOLLOWER, not a leader.

    • Ed

      August 4, 2021 at 12:14 pm

      Really Jan. A man that was the Captain of his baseball team at Yale and served as a USN officer is not a leader? So Nikki, who needs weed to sleep at night, and still hasn’t filed her 2020 financial report would be a better choice? Wait till you see her new found wealth. I can’t wait to lmao.

      • Tjb

        August 4, 2021 at 10:40 pm

        Not every Captain, I have met, has been a leader. Many have been, but a title doesn’t always makes you a leader.

  • Tom

    August 4, 2021 at 8:51 am

    You read your Manchurian talking points early this morning. Desantis by 10pts.

  • Elizabeth Cassese

    August 5, 2021 at 8:37 am

    Wow Tom. I’m going to guess white male over 50. Trump was referred to as the Manchurian president if you recall. DeSantis as a leader has proven to be a failure and is personally responsible for the deaths of thousands.

  • Tom

    August 9, 2021 at 10:29 pm

    The Democrats are Manchurians.
    They can’t think independently on anything. Just slander all. You obviously are a bot. You are foolish. America’s Governor has been anything but not successful. The list of accomplishment is endless, only schools open, highest seniors vaccinated, Teacher pay raises and bonuses, Environmental waterways gains, charter schools expanded, prosperous economy, work and families saved, and several more accomplishments. You live in your liberal cocoon. You and the Manchurian bots have no chance, none. Nikki Fraud is a joke and crispy Critters is not welcomed by your extremist fringe. Please compare America’s Governor to predator Mario, the grabber and recall Newsom. They’ve decimated their States. How bout black face Northam in Virginia. Age has nothing to do with this except to say I’ve seen this dance. Pathetic it is. You are a sick human to suggest that the Governor is responsible for that. Which is a total lie. Typical liberal hater.

  • Tom

    August 10, 2021 at 12:37 pm

    Cuomo resigned, he fondled dozens and decimated people lives-in state. He wrote a book and collected $5 million for it on Covid related. Pathetic. Now the incompetent lockdown Gov Newsom of Cali faces recall so as to be defeated.
    Meanwhile America’s Gov will be re elected in Nov/22, by 10 pts. Dems are are a disaster. US House and Senate will flip. Cry eye Dems!

Comments are closed.


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