Email insights: Are prediction markets turning on Ron DeSantis?

Is it time to sell short on “America’s Governor?” While that might be premature, downward trends for Gov. Ron DeSantis may be coming in one prediction market.

A “Predictable Insights” email from PredictIt focuses on the rhetorical battles between DeSantis and President Joe Biden in recent days, and Democrats newly seen as “providing a challenge” to what was seen as a “procession towards reelection.”

“The largest market shift seen across three market areas of interest covered above this week was undoubtedly within the 2022 Florida Governor’s race. Entering trading on Monday, DeSantis’ contract opened at 81¢ — slightly down from the 90-day high of 83¢ achieved at the end of July — but by Wednesday had fallen to 73¢ and on Thursday hit an intraday trading low of 69¢ before closing back up at 73¢,” the email contends.

Meanwhile, the two most viable Democratic candidates are rising, with Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried and U.S. Rep. Charlie Crist both surging toward the 20¢ mark.

“Fried’s contract opened at 8¢ to start the week and climbed 10¢ to an 18¢ close price on Thursday. Crist started the week a little higher at 10¢ before hitting 16¢ in the same time frame. Both contracts are now trading at 90-day highs and for the first time in the market’s duration, providing a challenge to what has appeared at times as a DeSantis procession toward re-election next year,” the email contends.

The investors are considering polling, including the St. Pete Polls surveys that rocked the political landscape earlier this week.

“Released on Tuesday, the incumbent now trails former governor and Republican-turned Democratic congressman Charlie Crist in a hypothetical match-up 45% to 44%. In a sign of how things can change quickly, the same poll released in May found would-be Florida voters more enchanted by fellow Democratic gubernatorial candidate Nikki Fried, the state’s current agriculture commissioner, than Crist. The silver lining for DeSantis — if he is looking for one — is that the poll also found 11% of responders undecided on whom they want as Florida’s next Governor,” the email contended.

While there has been turbulence regarding 2022, the more hypothetical 2024 scene still looks good for DeSantis, who did not lose appreciable ground to former President Donald Trump in investors’ views of who the Republican nominee might be. DeSantis, at 22¢, is a dime behind Trump, one cent worse than before.