Duval Democrats attempt to cast doubt on new poll showing Lenny Curry on path to victory

Introduction

An automated phone poll conducted on the weekend of January 23-25 of 1,247 likely Jacksonville voters by StPetePolls.com gives the best data so far on voter preference regarding the current mayoral race.

In summary, the poll bodes well for the Republican candidate, Lenny Curry, and somewhat less favorably for incumbent Mayor Alvin Brown. Meanwhile, the insurgent candidate – Bill Bishop, who has gotten a lot of rhetorical support – is polling in single digits.

The poll data merits a deep dive, given that there has not been a poll conducted for public consumption since Curry started advertising, and because there are elements in the poll that belie conventional wisdom, in ways that alternately favor Alvin Brown and Lenny Curry.

Four questions were posed in the poll:

• Do you feel that Jacksonville is on the right track or the wrong track?
• Should Mayor Alvin Brown be re-elected, or is it time for a new mayor?
• If the election were held today for Jacksonville mayor, would you vote for Alvin Brown, Lenny Curry, Bill Bishop or someone else?
• If the election for Jacksonville mayor were between Alvin Brown and Lenny Curry, who would you vote for?

Data Analysis

The first question posed was “Do you feel that Jacksonville is on the right track or the wrong track?” By a 2.6% margin – 43.2%-40.6%, a number within the 2.8% margin of error – the “wrong track” prevailed. An additional 16.2% of respondents were unsure.

Some interesting demographic points regarding this question. A majority of Democrats polled – 53% — asserted that Jacksonville was on the right track; neither Republicans nor Independents concurred with that, with nearly 55% of GOP voters asserting that Jacksonville was on the wrong track. A similar split surfaced between whites and nonwhites: 33% of whites believe that Jacksonville is on the right track, with majorities of blacks, Hispanics and Asian Pacific Islanders stating that Jacksonville is on the right track.

Slight pluralities of both genders indicated that Jacksonville was on the wrong track. Curiously, majorities of those over 70 and those between 30 and 49 asserted that Jacksonville was on the right track.

A question like that indicates general dissatisfaction. The next question – should Mayor Alvin Brown be re-elected, or is it time for a new mayor? – indicated a more specific disquiet. The re-election supporters measured a mere 38.9% of respondents, a full 14% below those who would prefer a new mayor.

The splits in a deeper dive were somewhat as expected: 62.9% of Democrats support Brown’s re-election, a number that indicates dissatisfaction with him among white liberals, including LGBT community members and their allies. 76% of Republicans, meanwhile, want a new mayor, an indication that “he didn’t raise our taxes” didn’t necessarily convince GOP voters. Almost 48% of Independents, meanwhile, think it’s time for new blood in City Hall.

While 74% of blacks support Brown’s re-election, in other demographic categories his support does not exceed 47%. He faces particular issues with Hispanics and whites. Over 67% of all whites polled want a new mayor, and the same can be said for over 57% of Hispanics. Majorities in both genders, meanwhile, think it’s time to replace Brown.

The age breakdowns do him no favors, either; 50% of those 30-49 want to see him re-elected, while the 18-29s narrowly prefer replacing him. Meanwhile, those over 50 years old – typically, the most dependable Duval County voters – want him gone. Over 57% of those 50-69, and a staggering 62.9% of those over the age of 70, want a replacement.

Despite registering below 40% support in the “should he be re-elected?” category, the incumbent mayor nonetheless was the preference of a plurality of poll respondents when they were asked who they would vote for if the election were held the day they were polled. Alvin Brown registered 37.9% support, significantly over Lenny Curry, who was the preference of 30.6% of respondents. Bill Bishop, meanwhile, was at a mere 8.9%. “Someone else” and “undecided,” meanwhile, combined for 22.5% of those surveyed.

Brown’s support in a multiparty race, when broken down, may not be as encouraging as the initial number. Almost 62% of Democrats would vote for him against Curry and Bishop – another indication of the erosion of white liberal support for the incumbent. One encouraging augury: the fact that, among all races except for whites in a multipolar contest, Brown holds an advantage over Curry and Bishop. One more discouraging finding: If these results hold true in March, only 23% of whites will vote for the incumbent.

There is a generational divide when it comes to support in a multiparty race, and it comes at the age of 50.  Brown is up 22 points among those 18 to 29, and has double the Curry support among those 30-49 – though not a clear-cut majority in either category. Brown is up just 1.8% against Curry among those 50-69, and those over 70 strongly prefer Curry – 45.9% to 26.3%.

Brown’s support in a contest including Bishop and other options among men is striking. He has nearly 40%, approximately 12 points ahead of Curry.

While Brown did well in a multipolar contest, he polled less well in a binary contest against Curry, who won a hypothetical two-way matchup 45.3% to 41.5%, with just over 13% undecided. Curry’s jump suggests that it is in his campaign’s interest to eliminate Bishop as quickly as possible, not because Bishop is a threat for the runoff, but because his presence clouds Curry’s ability to message and make the race a referendum on the Brown administration’s failings.

The two-way race numbers break down interestingly.

Both candidates had support between 65 and 70% of their own parties in the hypothetical binary matchup. Curry still has some work to do with Independents, meanwhile, as Brown holds a 6% advantage with them in this poll. 46.2 to 40.1%, with 13.7% undecided.

Meanwhile, there is a gender gap in support – and, surprisingly given Brown’s party identification, he does better with men than with women. He has a 1% lead among male voters; among women, however, Curry holds a 47-40.8%  advantage.

The age breakdown, meanwhile, splits at age 50. Brown has strong numbers with the 18-29 and 30-49 year old cohorts, Curry almost has a full majority with poll respondents aged 50-69 and, as expected, dominates the “70 and over” demographic.

Curry’s numbers in a two-way race illustrate the need to play hardball when it came to securing the Republican Party’s endorsement last week: the sooner he emerges as the undisputed Republican candidate, the easier it is to fit his campaign into the traditional R-vs-D paradigm that has favored candidates in Duval County reliably in recent election cycles – most notably, the Rick Scott trouncing of Charlie Crist in Duval County last year. These poll numbers make it clear that the Curry operation benefits from Bishop leaving the race by any means necessary, and the sooner the better – a framework that explains the need to assert formal endorsement consensus at last week’s Duval REC meeting.

Bishop’s departure is no sure thing at all, which is something the Curry team has prepared for in a number of ways. One of which being the hiring of veterans from the Bill Cassidy campaign in Louisiana – a team that lost the general election to a candidate, Mary Landrieu, with a plurality… only to win the runoff comfortably, drawing on support from the defeated third-place candidate.

With the lessons of this poll, each candidate has something to learn from. We reached out to the campaigns of Alvin Brown, Lenny Curry, and Bill Bishop for comment.

Reactions

I asked Brown’s senior campaign adviser, Dave Beattie, about what the poll revealed regarding his candidate’s problems with women voters, apparent weakness with Democrats, and attrition among conservative Republicans. Beattie disputed the poll’s methodology.

Brown’s adviser expressed a “high level of skepticism” in this poll, claiming that “autodial polls often aren’t scientific” and are “one of the less effective ways of measuring support.”

“You can do an auto dial poll to get press,” he continued, adding that “media releases can say anything you want.”

Regarding only 39% of Jacksonville residents favoring re-electing the mayor, Beattie was unconvinced. “60 days out from the election, the alternative always does better. The election is going to be determined on Election Day.”

And indeed it will, but there are fissures in the Brown coalition that will have to be resolved before then. Despite the poll indicating that less than two-thirds of Democrats favor Brown’s re-election, Beattie is unconvinced that will matter in the end.

“No Democrat or Republican gets less than 75% of the vote when party identification is on the ballot. This is the first time in [recent Florida political history] that would be the case… even people who go to jail get over 70%” he said. Beattie also discounted dissatisfaction among the LGBT community.

“It’s not that they’re disaffected, it’s that you’re asking the wrong question,” he claimed, regarding speculation that Brown’s soft Democratic support was attributable in part to the mayor’s positions in the Human Rights Ordinance and same-sex courthouse wedding debates in the last few years. Party support, Beattie adds, is “significantly stronger than this flawed poll shows.”

Compared to the reaction from the Brown camp, Team Curry’s reaction was considerably more muted. Curry spokesman Brian Hughes issued the following statement:

“Given Brown’s fiscal mismanagement and the dangerous spikes in violent crime, it’s no wonder that people are abandoning Brown. They know Jacksonville deserves better and recognize Lenny Curry is a leader they can trust,” Hughes wrote.

“Regardless, polls will not change how Lenny runs his campaign or the city. Jacksonville has real problems that require real solutions. In fact, many of the problems facing the city are because this mayor cares more about polls and politics than leading,” Hughes added.

“From the beginning we have known that Jacksonville families are ready for someone who has the experience Lenny has; a small business owner who has created jobs and balanced the budgets. Lenny will continue to hold the mayor accountable and share his vision for a brighter future,” Hughes concluded.

Bill Bishop, meanwhile, had this to say: “I am in the race through to the end.  A great deal can happen between now and the election.  I’m running a campaign to get elected.  Others may look at it however they like.”

Conclusions

There are paths to victory for two candidates from here, even in the binary scenario where Curry leads by a few points. It is possible to imagine, somehow, that Alvin Brown will find a way to appease the LGBT community and its straight allies and get them to vote for his re-election by sealing a secret deal for a quid pro quo. Likely that won’t happen, but it’s clear that the Democratic respondents to this poll are not thoroughly sold on Brown’s follow through on issues that matter to them.

Curry, meanwhile, is in a curious position. More popular with women than with men, and more popular with women than the Democratic incumbent, this poll indicates how well he has done in branding himself as the political boss turned everyman. If his campaign goes too hard right on any issue, it runs the risk of eroding female support. To win, he needs to position himself as the logical heir to John Delaney’s legacy.

What is clear is that there will be a runoff if Bill Bishop stays in the race and draws north of 5%. There theoretically would be a point at which he would pull the plug if his numbers are this low – he has never positioned himself as a protest “send ‘em a message” candidate – and how his withdrawal eventually is handled could very well be the pivot of this election.

What also could be the pivot: the incursions of state and even national parties into this mayoral race. The Florida Democratic Party bankrolled Mayor Brown’s first ad, a clear sign that they expect a runoff and are thereby giving Brown as much support before the March election as possible. The Florida Republican Party, meanwhile, does not intend to lose this race. The serious issues in Tallahassee are amply documented by other commentators. Both parties, however, recognize that stakes are high and this election is arguably Florida’s political main event of the current year.

As Peter wrote this morning, expect a street fight.