- 2022 election
- 3D Strategic Research
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
- B.J. Martino
- Battleground districts
- Camille Gallo
- Carlos Gimenez
- David Kanevsky
- David Sackett
- Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
- Donald Trump
- hispanic voters
- Joe Biden
- Kamala Harris
- Meeting Street Insights
- Nancy Pelosi
- National Republican Congressional Committee
- National Republican Senatorial Committe
- Rob Autry
- The Tarrance Group
As President Joe Biden’s popularity continues sinking to new lows, Democrats are losing ground to Republicans in 47 battleground districts with large Hispanic populations, according to a new survey from the National Republican Congressional Committee.
Exit polls from the 2020 General Election had Biden enjoying a sizable lead in favorability over former President Donald Trump among Hispanic voters. Much of that lead appears to have eroded.
Speaking by phone and online with 1,000 registered Hispanic voters, survey firm Meeting Street Insights found that 44% of respondents now support Democrats as compared to 37% favoring Republicans.
The survey was conducted Jan. 29 to Feb. 3 and has a 3.1 percentage point margin of error. The NRCC shared the survey results but not the data itself. Florida Politics requested access to the data but did not receive a response by press time.
Republicans led with Hispanic voters in battleground districts on the subjects of jobs and the economy (42% to 35%), border security (44% to 31%), cost-of-living concerns (39% to 32%) and crime and public safety (40% to 32%).
When asked which party is better able to protect the American dream, Republicans led Democrats 41% to 35%.
Hispanic voters are split on their approval of the job Biden is doing, with 46% approving of his work in general and 46% disapproving. However, there is a larger divide in the extremity of their feelings on the matter, with 37% strongly disapproving of Biden’s performance compared to 23% strongly approving.
Among independent Hispanic voters, just 35% approve of Biden’s performance. Forty-nine percent disapprove. He’s also behind among Hispanic men (41% approve to 49% disapprove), mothers (41% to 52%) and those under 55 (42% to 49%).
The survey found U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is the most unpopular national Democratic politician with Hispanic battleground voters, with 39% of respondents rating her “strongly unfavorable” compared to 36% for Biden, 35% for Vice President Kamala Harris and 31% for U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — all of whom had “strongly unfavorable” ratings at least 10 percentage points higher than their “strongly favorable” ratings.
Senders listed in the NRCC press release breaking down the survey results included David Kanevsky, president and founder of polling company 3D Strategic Research and polling director for the National Republican Senatorial Committee; B.J. Martino and David Sackett of Republican strategic research and polling firm The Tarrance Group; and Meeting Street Insights founder Rob Autry.
“With data like this, it’s easy to see why Florida Democrats are seeing a full-blown recruitment crisis,” NRCC spokeswoman Camille Gallo said by email. That’s referring to confirmation former U.S. Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell — the first South American immigrant to serve in Congress — gave the Miami Herald Thursday that she will not run for office again this year.
Mucarsel-Powell lost her seat representing Florida’s 26th Congressional District to former Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Giménez, a Republican, by 3.4 percentage points in 2020.
While one recent poll ahead of a Jacksonville Special Election showed area Democrats doing well, another by Mason-Dixon found that Gov. Ron DeSantis remains a healthy favorite against three top Democratic challengers. That poll also showed U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio still holds a 7-point lead over U.S. Rep. Val Demings, who is vying to unseat him in November.