Associated Press
A political shift is beginning to take hold across the U.S. as tens of thousands of suburban swing voters who helped fuel the Democratic Party’s gains in recent years are becoming Republicans.
More than 1 million voters across 43 states have switched to the Republican Party over the last year, according to voter registration data analyzed by The Associated Press. The previously unreported number reflects a phenomenon that is playing out in virtually every region of the country — Democratic and Republican states along with cities and small towns — in the period since President Joe Biden replaced former President Donald Trump.
But nowhere is the shift more pronounced — and dangerous for Democrats — than in the suburbs, where well-educated swing voters who turned against Trump’s Republican Party in recent years appear to be swinging back. Over the last year, far more people are switching to the GOP across suburban counties from Denver to Atlanta and Pittsburgh and Cleveland.
Republicans also gained ground in counties around medium-size cities such as Harrisburg, Pennsylvania; Raleigh, North Carolina; Augusta, Georgia; and Des Moines, Iowa.
In Florida, Republicans captured 58 percent of party switchers during those last years of the Trump era. Now, over the last year, they command 70 percent. And in Pennsylvania, the Republicans went from 58 to 63 percent of party changers.
Ben Smith, who lives in suburban Larimer County, Colorado, north of Denver, said he reluctantly registered as a Republican earlier in the year after becoming increasingly concerned about the Democrats’ support in some localities for mandatory COVID-19 vaccines, the party’s inability to quell violent crime and its frequent focus on racial justice.
“It’s more so a rejection of the left than embracing the right,” said Smith, a 37-year-old professional counselor whose transition away from the Democratic Party began five or six years ago when he registered as a libertarian.
The AP examined nearly 1.7 million voters who had likely switched affiliations across 42 states for which there is data over the last 12 months, according to L2, a political data firm. L2 uses a combination of state voter records and statistical modeling to determine party affiliation. While party switching is not uncommon, the data shows a definite reversal from the period while Trump was in office, when Democrats enjoyed a slight edge in the number of party switchers nationwide.
But over the last year, roughly two-thirds of the 1.7 million voters who changed their party affiliation shifted to the Republican Party. In all, more than 1 million people became Republicans compared to about 630,000 who became Democrats.
The broad migration of more than 1 million voters, a small portion of the overall U.S. electorate, does not ensure widespread Republican success in the November midterm elections, which will determine control of Congress and dozens of governorships. Democrats are hoping the Supreme Court’s decision on Friday to overrule Roe v. Wade will energize supporters, particularly in the suburbs, ahead of the midterms.
Still, the details about party switchers present a dire warning for Democrats who were already concerned about the macro effects shaping the political landscape this fall.
Roughly four months before Election Day, Democrats have no clear strategy to address Biden’s weak popularity and voters’ overwhelming fear that the country is headed in the wrong direction with their party in charge. And while Republicans have offered few policy solutions of their own, the GOP has been working effectively to capitalize on the Democrats’ shortcomings.
Republicans benefited last year as suburban parents grew increasingly frustrated by prolonged pandemic-related schools closures. And as inflation intensified more recently, the Republican National Committee has been hosting voter registration events at gas stations in suburban areas across swing states like Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania to link the Biden administration to record-high gas prices. The GOP has also linked the Democratic president to an ongoing baby formula shortage.
“Biden and Democrats are woefully out of touch with the American people, and that’s why voters are flocking to the Republican Party in droves,” RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel told the AP. She predicted that “American suburbs will trend red for cycles to come” because of “Biden’s gas hike, the open border crisis, baby formula shortage and rising crime.”
The Democratic National Committee declined to comment when asked about the recent surge in voters switching to the GOP.
And while Republican officials are quick to take credit for the shift, the phenomenon gained momentum shortly after Trump left the White House. Still, the specific reason or reasons for the shift remain unclear.
At least some of the newly registered Republicans are actually Democrats who crossed over to vote against Trump-backed candidates in GOP primaries. Such voters are likely to vote Democratic again this November.
But the scope and breadth of the party switching suggests something much bigger at play.
Over the last year, nearly every state — even those without high-profile Republican primaries — moved in the same direction as voters by the thousand became Republicans. Only Virginia, which held off-year elections in 2021, saw Democrats notably trending up over the last year. But even there, Democrats were wiped out in last fall’s statewide elections.
In Iowa, Democrats used to hold the advantage in party changers by a 2-to-1 margin. That’s flipped over the last year, with Republicans ahead by a similar amount. The same dramatic shift is playing out in Ohio.
The current advantage for Republicans among party changers is playing out with particular ferocity in the nation’s suburbs.
The AP found that the Republican advantage was larger in suburban “fringe” counties, based on classifications from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, compared to smaller towns and counties. Republicans boosted their share of party changers in 168 of 235 suburban counties AP examined — 72 percent — over the last year, compared with the last years of the Trump era.
These included suburban counties across Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Texas, Ohio, Virginia and Washington state.
Republicans also gained ground in further-out suburban counties, which the CDC lumps in with medium-size cities and calls “medium metro” — more than 62 percent of such counties, 164 in all, saw Republican growth. They range from the suburban counties north of Denver, like Larimer, to Los Angeles-area ones like Ventura and Santa Barbara in California.
The Republican advantage was nearly universal, but it was stronger in some places than others.
For example, in Lorain County, Ohio, just outside Cleveland, nearly every party switcher over the last year has gone Republican. That’s even as Democrats captured three-quarters of those changing parties in the same county during end of the Trump era.
Some conservative leaders worry that the GOP’s suburban gains will be limited if Republicans don’t do a better job explaining to suburban voters what they stand for — instead of what they stand against.
Emily Seidel, who leads the Koch-backed grassroots organization Americans for Prosperity, said her network is seeing first-hand that suburban voters are distancing themselves from Democrats who represent “extreme policy positions.”
“But that doesn’t mean that they’re ready to vote against those lawmakers either. Frankly, they’re skeptical of both options that they have,” Seidel said. “The lesson here: Candidates have to make their case, they have to give voters something to be for, not just something to be against.”
Back in Larimer County, Colorado, 39-year-old homemaker Jessica Kroells says she can no longer vote for Democrats, despite being a reliable Democratic voter up until 2016.
There was not a single “aha moment” that convinced her to switch, but by 2020, she said the Democratic Party had “left me behind.”
“The party itself in no longer Democrat, it’s progressive socialism,” she said, specifically condemning Biden’s plan to eliminate billions of dollars in student debt.
___
Republished with permission from The Associated Press.
28 comments
Nut Hindoon
June 27, 2022 at 9:51 am
“Democrats are hoping the Supreme Court’s decision on Friday to overrule Roe v. Wade will energize supporters, particularly in the suburbs, ahead of the midterms.”
What Ds don’t understand are that all those girls who screwed their way through the ’70s and ’80s are grandmothers now, and their word is “Like hell your gonna abort my grandbaby.”
martin
June 27, 2022 at 10:41 am
Afghanastan, Stock market crash resulting in major losses for retirement savings, Supply chain crisis, High fuel prices, baby formula shortages, run-away crime resulting in our cities becoming 3rd world cesspools, unchecked borders! These are the issues that affect the lives of everyday Americans.
All brought to you by the democratic party. Oh, but trump tweeted mean things….but life was good!
Thank you biden. Now step aside in 2024, or be pushed aside by a republican landslide!
Andrew Finn
June 27, 2022 at 1:20 pm
WOOOOOOO !!!!!! it’s “Hasta la bye bye Dems” come this November !!!!!! Talk about a sweep – there aren’t enough brooms in this world to do it all in one election day. Biden becomes a lame duck more than he is now) for the next two years after the Republicans take back both houses of Congress.
Impeach Biden
June 28, 2022 at 9:22 am
I am giddy at the fact that the wicked witch from San Francisco will be giving up her gavel. It will truly be a glorious day come November. No more gavel swings and no more elbowing young kids Nancy. You will now have time to read some of the bills before opening your uneducated mouth.
alfred
June 27, 2022 at 3:23 pm
trump is a fascist who tried to over throw the government. The rise of crime is in republican dominated states as well. Low unemployment , highest job creation in the past 20 years a 1.7$ trillion infrastructure bill trump could only speak about but never pass. Your prophet trump is a crook and a filthy scumbag… who cares only about himself.
U wait and see come November the shitty republicans will get crushed, unfortunately decent republicans are not welcome in the fascist wing of the party.
Tom
June 27, 2022 at 8:13 pm
Yes Alfred the butler (Batman) correct Florida is suffering terribly.
Lowest unemployment, greatest economy, best public schools, best public school vouchers program, opened schools, most seniors Covid inoculations, best judicial appointments, best environment, and best quality of life.
Yeah right Alfred, America’s Gov. number one. Rising tide for all.
LMAO, you have a very bad election day coming. You are not in good place. Very bad Election Day coming. Enjoy it.
Robert B Emerson
June 28, 2022 at 5:21 pm
Alfred, get the facts, – everything you just wrote is factually wrong. I get that you don’t like to guy, but don’t let your thoughtless emotional response cloud your judgement.
Tom
June 27, 2022 at 4:48 pm
LMAO, you have a very bad ejection day coming.
You are not in good place. Very bad Election Day coming. Enjoy it.
Wilma
June 27, 2022 at 6:39 pm
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Fred Tabor
June 27, 2022 at 9:20 pm
I’m surprised AP would publish a press release and that you would pass it on. They only quote Ronna McDaniel, head of the Republican National Committee, and a spokesperson for the Koch Network, and a couple of “random voters.”
Suburban voters are not going to vote for the party that is completely illegitimate. We have an ongoing hearing because they will stop at literally nothing and engage in any plan to retain power. They won’t vote for a party that installed Justices that are gleefully throwing out constitutional law along with our constitutional, civil, and human rights. Guns and christianity are super-protected rights, but forget the right to vote; separation of church and state; government agencies to protect your air, medications, toys, and food; public schools; and the right to any autonomy, liberty or privacy regarding your body.
Tom
June 28, 2022 at 6:13 am
Wah, Wah, Wah Fred
News flash you hayseed.
Repubs have a new 200,000 voter registration lead now in Florida. Thanks to America’s Gov. Florida is the example for overcoming Dem party registration. Your crazy if you don’t think and realize it’s happening round country. At least a million new Republican registration.
Hispanics fleeing the Dems. Suburban moms/dads fleeing Dems. The political realignment in play is massive and deep.
You are looking at 25 to 50 new House seats and 6 to 8 Senate seats.
Enjoy it Fred.
Impeach Biden
June 28, 2022 at 8:32 am
It’s interesting when the Democrats don’t get their way they go to the streets, torching cars, looting retailers, smashing windows. Funny how most of the Roe protests are occurring in states where abortion is legal. Like the so called “don’t say gay” bill in Florida most of these nuts follow the Nancy Pelosi strategy and simply don’t read what’s in the ruling. Now we have many looney tune Democrats wanting to change the filibuster rules and pack the Supreme Court since they didn’t get their way. Remind me again how many times the Senate filibustered Trump when he was President? The Democrats simply can’t overcome what they have done to the economy and that is the bottom line when the rout comes in November,
Bill
June 29, 2022 at 8:06 am
“It’s interesting when the Democrats don’t get their way they go to the streets, torching cars, looting retailers, smashing windows”
Let me fix that for you:
It’s interesting when the republicans don’t get their way they go to the Capitol, attacking police, looting the Capitol Building, smashing windows and threatening to hang their own party members.
I don’t like hippy dippy liberal BS but after Jan 6th, you’ve lost all rights to point fingers at anyone else.
Tristan
July 1, 2022 at 11:42 am
You just described the liberal left and a years worth of riots.
Many buildings were damaged or destroyed along with setting up an insurrectionist zone called CHAZ/CHOP run by a Soundcloud Rapper/Warlord giving anyone weapons. Tons of the rioters were left out of jail charge free thanks to people like Kamala Harris.
Lets not forget the way liberals acted upon election night in 2016 and for 4 years saying “Not My President”. Hell even the FBI had to trick 2 people into a false flag assassination.
So sit down and STFU! The years worth of riots were far more damaging then 1 night at the capitol.
Bill
July 5, 2022 at 7:39 am
“So sit down and STFU! The years worth of riots were far more damaging then 1 night at the capitol.”
Most people would disagree with you but hey, a childish insult and some random what-about-isms probably makes sense to you so have at it.
Just a comment
June 28, 2022 at 10:28 am
It is a argument we all take in one way or another to left sided no right side of the hand
Anne Archy
June 28, 2022 at 3:08 pm
Dems thrive on conflict and chaos because they get to treacherously offer more government and bigger government as the solution to the problems they help cause.
Just a comment
June 28, 2022 at 5:03 pm
0 for everything dictatorship
You have to be rich to live policy
Everyone deserves a house and all the jobs attached to it economy.
And we will become our own community and you have to have our life style to fit in.
Just a comment
June 28, 2022 at 5:11 pm
All brought to you by fork tong lizard’s
nail
June 29, 2022 at 8:49 am
See Christina Pushaw has her goons out again.
“With the midterm elections less than five months away, the decision by SCOTUS has sent shockwaves through the electorate,” says Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “Men are +12 points and women are +18 points more likely to support congressional candidates who pledge t-May 26, 2022o codify the protections of Roe v. Wade. Digging deeper, 63% of women, including 74% of suburban women, are also concerned that the Court’s decision is a harbinger of things to come.”
Democrats lead Republicans 48 to 41 percent on the 2022 Midterms generic ballot question of the June NPR/PBS Newshour/Marist College poll, a ten point net swing from the April survey in which Republicans led 47 to 44 percent, and further widening the 47-42 Dem lead from May following the initial leak of the Roe v Wade draft decision.
Since this poll used a 8 point weighted variables, I will go with this. AP picked up theirs from a Opinion piece, put it in the trash..
Tom
June 29, 2022 at 9:56 pm
Rass as in ass.
Fake news as usual FYI
You. Miringhoff is a known Dem partisan pointer. His polls are always weighted and polls for Dem extremist liberal policy causes.
His polls were 5 to 10 pts off last cycle, NPR/PBS are known Dem underwear cleaners.
Neither are credible,
Nail your talking points come from Cardenas and the the piñata spouse Navarro.
If you think the Dums aren’t going to lose 25 to 50 House seats and 4 to 6 Senate seats your high. America’s Gov and Marco win, chameleon and fraud no chance. Dum Demings the same.
FYI, I dare Pelosi and Schumer to bring up a first trimester bill. Force Repubs to vote.
You are oblivious.
It’s Complicated
June 30, 2022 at 5:03 pm
And yet, the Democratic Party has doubled down on their Leftist Agenda. We’ll see how that works for them.
marylou
June 30, 2022 at 5:51 pm
Leftists wish that the Dems would adopt the Leftist Agenda!
Leftists want many of the same things that polls show that the majority of Americans want: tax billionaires and corporations to pay for infrastructure and other needs, wealth tax, Medicare for All (it’s health insurance, not government doctors and not waiting lists for care!), lower prescription drug prices for Americans, windfall profits tax (on record corporate profit margins from gouging consumers), clean energy with clean energy jobs, minimum wage increase, universal pre-K, etc.
Many of the party switchers are Dems registering as Republicans to vote in Republican primaries.
Biden, Nancy, Kamala, and Chuck are not Leftists!
Most of Biden’s low approval rating is due to not even getting close to a Leftist Agenda!
Tom
July 1, 2022 at 10:57 am
Ok AOC and Bernie apologist.
How’s your green no deal now.
Dems are done! Biden is 30% approval Florida.
Dems losing up to 40 house seats.
America’s Gov wins big, Marco too.
Super majority in Fl legislatures.
Chameleon and Fraud no chance.
Biden Harris caused depression.
Marylou go back to midnight pool girl.
Marcus
July 3, 2022 at 12:28 am
Count me and my wife, and interracial couple from NY who lost relocated to FL as one of those party switchers that moved from Democrat to Republican.
It should scare Democrats that a millennial black man like me, someone who voted for Obama 2x and Hillary in 2016, could leave them behind for today’s post-Trump GOP.
Why did we choose FL, you might ask?
Ron DeSantis.
See you in November.
Tom
July 4, 2022 at 7:09 am
God bless you brother Marcus!
Welcome in.
Yes, you are correct.
Paulas
July 4, 2022 at 3:21 pm
Nices
It's Complicated
July 5, 2022 at 5:20 pm
LOL! You just go right on believing that.
I know several “life-long” Democrats that switched to GOP over the course of the past year. Truly a heart change has taken place. I also know some utterly flaming liberals (on social and moral issues) who have switched to NPA because they believe the Democratic Party is totally inept, and will bankrupt America. The latter will still vote for Democrats in the General Election, but they are disassociating and de-identifying with that party.
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