A.G. Gancarski
Democrat Donna Deegan, a former Jacksonville television journalist, released a poll Wednesday showing her leading the 2023 mayoral race.
An internal poll conducted by Frederick Polls has Deegan up in the race, with 30% support. Per the survey, Deegan is the “clear front-runner.”
“Donna Deegan is the clear front-runner with a direct path to making the runoff in this crowded field of competitors. Her broad and deep support is stable; built upon a foundation of trust and familiarity achieved from years of exposure and service to the community,” the memo asserts.
“Her nearest competitors are far behind and have a difficult path to closing the gap with Donna since they would have to cannibalize other established candidates to gain significant vote.”
The next two names on the survey, Republican Daniel Davis and Democrat Audrey Gibson, each scored 17% support. Those are notable numbers given Davis still is not a formally filed candidate, and Gibson just entered the race weeks back and hasn’t campaigned much beyond the launch press conference.
“Deegan holds a sizeable 35% of the black vote, with no candidate gaining a majority of this vote,” the memo asserts, seemingly in response to Gibson’s performance in the poll.
Republicans Al Ferraro and LeAnna Cumber have both been in for a while, and the Deegan survey shows they still have room to grow. Ferraro got 11% support, 3 points ahead of Cumber. Both serve on the Jacksonville City Council.
No other candidate got over 3% support. Undecided voters made up 9% of responses.
The poll of 618 “likely” March 2023 voters was D+1, somewhat less than the registration advantage Democrats hold citywide. It is the latest early survey in the race to show strength for Deegan.
Despite the strong polling, Deegan still has ground to make up in the money race. As of the most recent reporting, she has under $500,000 cash on hand between her campaign account and her political committee, Donna for Duval.
Two Republicans are dominating the money race, meanwhile.
The Davis Building a Better Economy political committee had nearly $4 million cash on hand as of June 24, the most recent report for the committee.
Cumber, despite her poll doldrums, is dominating filed candidates in fundraising. Her JAX First political committee has nearly $2.3 million on hand, and Cumber has roughly $185,000 in her campaign account.
Deegan is ahead of Ferraro in fundraising. He has roughly $250,000 on hand between his campaign account and his political committee, Keep It Real Jax.
In early political committee fundraising, the Audrey Gibson committee (“A Rising Tide“) has raised $110,000 already, with former CSX executive Michael Ward and the Jacksonville Kennel Club providing the first donations.
Other candidates lag far behind in the cash chase so far.
Polling hasn’t been Deegan’s problem in this early field; surveys have shown her ahead of all competition. She had 41% support in a February poll from the University of North Florida. But donors don’t appear to be following the polls.
10 comments
MK
July 6, 2022 at 10:08 am
Donna Deegan and Audrey Gibson are great candidates for a city struggling to keep up. We need bold not boring if we are going to compete.
Bob
July 6, 2022 at 12:20 pm
Donna Deegan would be a breath of fresh air at a time when special interests and back door politics have been rampant! Go Donna!
Frankie M.
July 6, 2022 at 1:52 pm
Can’t buy name recognition unless you’re Reggie Gaffney Jr.
Bonnie H
July 6, 2022 at 4:17 pm
Donna Deegan will make a great Mayor. The number of individual donors she has shows the wide level of support she has across the county. High dollar donors help to buy visibility but the apparent lack of individual voter support says a lot.
MaryM
July 6, 2022 at 8:47 pm
A lot of people weren’t here when she was cheating on Dan with Tim.
margaret
July 13, 2022 at 4:17 pm
O when Dan was in his own sex scandal…………….
Dr. Omega Allen
July 6, 2022 at 9:12 pm
That’s interesting. A poll can be made to confirm anything you want it to based on who you ask. Such reports, just like PROPAGANDA, are used to distribute biased information to influence public opinion. Based on the responses from the people I’ve spoken with, I am leading. Yet, my name was not mentioned; however it was deemed necessary to mention someone who IS NOT a candidate. Just another attempt to influence voters. Money doesn’t vote, PEOPLE DO and I AM the PEOPLE’S MAYOR.
J. Parajanov
July 7, 2022 at 4:59 pm
Dr. Allen—that’s excellent that every person you’ve spoken to supports your campaign. Your words and platform must really resonate with the people you canvass! But I would think you of all people, with a PA Ph.D. in Participatory Municipal Government, would understand both the credibility and the strenuous compliance of voter-based research at a municipal level. In case you missed it (you must have if you didn’t catch your name next to your historically undeviated 2% of the vote. Did the other polls get that wrong too?), here are the method-based facts:
The poll’s party demographics were 44% Dem, 45% Rep, 11% NPA, and based off of Duval SOE voter registration statistics this is incredibly generous considering registered Dems in Jax outnumber registered Reps by 32,924 — or 5.1% (a 4.1% bit of slack to account for possible bias). A sample size of over 600 interviews was used with a mix of respondents by age, education level, ethnicity and geography, well over the typical sample size for a poll like this. Deegan holds a sizeable 35% of the black vote, with no other candidate gaining a majority of this vote. A 4% margin of error was accounted for, which still doesn’t affect Deegan’s lead even if you factor it into every candidate. Frederick Polls has over 40 years of spotless, accurate, and scientific integrity in their data as their reputation.
But please report back on these people you have spoken with—apparently just speaking is working if you are already deemed the people’s next mayor. A 28% upset would be so freaking exciting! Good luck! 😀
Poll are a lie
July 6, 2022 at 10:56 pm
maybe donna WILL HIRE Andrew Gillum to help her lol,,, Deegan will not be the Mayor, y’all keep on believing these bias liberal polls
J. Parajanov
July 7, 2022 at 4:36 pm
Did you bother to read this at all?
The poll’s party demographics were 44% Dem, 45% Rep, 11% NPA, and based off of Duval SOE voter registration statistics this is incredibly generous considering registered Dems in Jax outnumber registered Reps by 32,924 — or 5.1% (a 4.1% bit of slack to account for possible bias). Deegan was also the 3rd most likely pick for Republicans. A sample size of over 600 interviews was used with a mix of respondents by age, education level, ethnicity and geography, well over the typical sample size for a poll like this. A 4% margin of error was accounted for, which still doesn’t affect Deegan’s lead even if you factor it into every candidate. Frederick Polls has over 40 years of spotless, accurate, and scientific integrity in their data as their reputation.
Like Miss Omega Allen above you (who inaccurately claimed she wasn’t represented in this poll, yet was mentioned by name), unfortunately it seems as if you can only read headlines or live in a reality that rejects fact-based empirical research. Which is it?
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