If hashtagged tweets were votes, right now former President Donald Trump would beat Gov. Ron DeSantis in a landslide in a Republican Primary for the 2024 Presidential Election.
Trump would even take Florida.
That’s according to an analysis of geotagged twitter data in the last month, tracking hashtags for possible 2024 Republican candidates, done by the sports betting outfit at betonline.ag.
The analysis, done of more than 220,000 hashtagged tweets, searching for the origins of such hashtags as #Trump2024, #DeSantis2024, #Cruz2024, #Haley2024, #Pence2024.
The Florida Governor who has yet to publicly acknowledge any 2024 presidential aspirations — while governing as if he has a national audience and frequently traveling the country for fundraisers — is strongest among hashtagged tweets in three areas: New England, the Beltway states of Maryland and Virginia, and the Upper Midwest.
Trump dominates everywhere else.
No other candidate came close anywhere.
The analysis may have no relevance like polling. There were no questions asked. There was no demographic weighting. There’s no context. There’s no reason to believe anyone is putting their own money down based on these tweets. Do tweeters even vote? Are they even real people or bots?
But the same betting outfit says Trump is the favorite right now for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, with Trump listed as a +120 bet, and DeSantis at +150.
Yet the results of the Twitter hashtag data show a curious pattern that might suggest strengths and weaknesses, based on candidates’ popularity in social media activity.
All eight states that hashtag DeSantis the most — Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Virginia and Wisconsin — went to Joe Biden in the 2020 Presidential Election.
If hashtags were votes, Twitter could see Trump winning first, in Iowa in January 2024, and then DeSantis coming right back to win in New Hampshire a few days later. But DeSantis wouldn’t win another state until Super Tuesday in March.