Poll: Aaron Bean in dominating position ahead of CD 4 GOP Primary
Aaron Bean. Image via Colin Hackley.

St. Pete Polls found he may already have the nomination locked up.

State Sen. Aaron Bean faces little challenge in winning the Republican Primary for an open congressional seat. That’s the clear takeaway from a new St. Pete Polls survey of likely Republican voters in Florida’s 4th Congressional District.

More than 59% of GOP voters included in the poll favor Bean for the Republican nomination in CD 4. Just 16% prefer Erick Aguilar and about 6% want Jon Chuba to win the Primary.

Among the 16% of respondents who already cast their vote-by-mail ballots in the race, nearly 62% say they voted for Bean. Just over 15% already put in their vote for Aguilar and around 6% have voted for Chuba.

The survey was conducted for Florida Politics. Pollsters included responses from 312 voters reached on Aug. 4. Results were weighted for age, race, gender and media market based on the active voter population of the newly drawn CD 4. Pollsters report a margin of error of 5.5 percentage points.

The contest represents one of the Republican Party’s most likely pickup opportunities for a House seat this fall. Bean launched his campaign in June, shortly after Gov. Ron DeSantis signed a controversial map that eliminated a Black access district in North Florida and left CD 4 as a Republican-leaning seat serving the Jacksonville area.

Bean has led the money race. Meanwhile, Aguilar faced heavy criticism in recent weeks after WinRed booted him from the fundraising platform for allegedly sending emails fraudulently representing the cash would go to DeSantis or President Donald Trump. DeSantis called such actions “fraud on the donor.”

A look at crosstabs shows Bean in a dominating position with most demographics. More than half of voters in all age groups prefer the state Senator. Bean’s support is weakest among voters ages 30 through 46, but he still takes 50% of the vote there, compared to 22% who prefer Aguilar and 11% who plan to support Chuba, the only place group where Chuba cracked double-digit support.

About 62% of women and 62% of men will support him, compared to 15% of women and 16% of men who want Aguilar instead.

The poll did find support for Aguilar among a small slice of Hispanic voters, where he grabbed 40% of the vote to Bean’s 20%.

Jacob Ogles

Jacob Ogles has covered politics in Florida since 2000 for regional outlets including SRQ Magazine in Sarasota, The News-Press in Fort Myers and The Daily Commercial in Leesburg. His work has appeared nationally in The Advocate, Wired and other publications. Events like SRQ’s Where The Votes Are workshops made Ogles one of Southwest Florida’s most respected political analysts, and outlets like WWSB ABC 7 and WSRQ Sarasota have featured his insights. He can be reached at [email protected].


  • Susan S

    August 6, 2022 at 4:09 pm

    I will be honest I voted early and voted for Erick Aguilar. I thought he was FAR RIGHT and out there but I am glad I did.

    COMPARE the websites- and Bean has NOTHING.

    Bean has NOTHING. I cannot find where Bean stands on anything. Florida Politics rights so many smears on Erick that the bias shows. Bean has MILLIONS of dollars going missing and obvious corruption with the Bradleys and not one article? It shows the bias.

    I have voted already and I voted for Erick Aguilar. I was unsure at first and watching these smears show one thing- I was right to vote for him. I am sure Bean is paying Florida Politics.

    • Keith McDermott

      August 7, 2022 at 9:48 pm

      Hi Susan.
      I did not vote for Bean either. Nor did anyone in my family, which makes up 9 votes. I just know him as a person and his character is one that is not one I like. His reputation is questionable at best. I know he acts like the innocent guy and gets everyone else to do his dirty work for him. Our family decided to vote against him. It’s nothing personal but more for our family to want real change.

  • Margaret

    August 6, 2022 at 6:54 pm

    Why isn’t there a Democrat running for this office?

  • Keith McDermott

    August 7, 2022 at 9:44 pm

    I did not vote for Aaron Bean. The guy’s trying to build a career out of politics because he has no fallback job. I know him and I know he’s not very ethical. But so do a lot of other people.
    I doubt he dominated the polls. Just my opinion.

  • Keith McDermott

    August 17, 2022 at 5:08 pm

    I work as a research scientist and this poll raises all kinds of red flags. First of all, the bias in the poll is alarming. Florida Politics does their own poll and publishes it showing an enormously high lead. Florida Politics attempted to collect data doing robocalls, which has a massive margin of error. Florida Politics then tries to explain in an article how this is an accurate poll, which it is not. There was not one person, who understands data collection and research that touched the data. It’s unreliable and not even valid. The margin of error is huge.
    Stick to writing articles – actually don’t do that either. All you guys have done is writing one-sided articles, which is the reason why the people don’t trust the media and journalists anymore.

Comments are closed.


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