New poll finds Maria Elvira Salazar leading tight race against Annette Taddeo

With less than four weeks till Election Day, U.S. Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar is leading challenger Annette Taddeo in Florida’s 27th Congressional District by a margin of 6 percentage points.

That’s according to a recent poll from Republican polling firm Cygnal, commissioned by the Super PAC supporting Salazar, Leadership for a Strong America. The poll found Salazar topping Taddeo 50% to 44%.

While the poll pointed to a win for Salazar, the incumbent’s lead is within the poll’s 6-percentage-point margin of error. Another 6% of voters remain undecided.

“The rightward shift of the district has Salazar performing very well across-the-board. Her base is larger, and those left undecided are most focused on the economy, inflation, and national security — all issues that will push these voters Salazar’s way,” Cygnal president and founder Brent Buchanan said in a statement.

The poll, taken Oct. 9-11 among 300 CD 27 voters, comes as the Republican Salazar fights to retain her seat against Taddeo, a former Charlie Crist running mate, and as Republicans battle to regain a majority in the U.S. House.

Salazar’s lead comes despite her Democratic challenger maintaining stronger favorability numbers in the district. Salazar is split at 39% favorable and unfavorable, while Taddeo is above water at 35% favorable to 28% unfavorable, according to the survey.

But Salazar may benefit from an unpopular President Joe Biden, who is underwater among CD 27 voters, the poll found. In the district, 51% of voters reported an unfavorable opinion on the Democratic President, and 47% consider their opinions of him favorable. But, perhaps more telling, just 33% of voters said the country was headed in the right direction, while 59% said it was heading in the wrong direction.

Also telling is how the district feels about Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis. A majority of the district, 52%, report a favorable rating of the Governor, while 45% hold unfavorable opinions.

DeSantis actually trailed former gubernatorial opponent Andrew Gillum by over 7 points in this district in 2018, while Donald Trump saw a 1-point win over President Joe Biden in 2020.

The race is likely to be tight. A previous poll from SEA Polling and Strategic Design taken October 3-5 showed Taddeo in a statistical tie with Salazar, with a less than 1-percentage-point advantage. Still, Republicans are hopeful with the latest polling results.

Predictions for the CD 27 race have varied since Salazar and Taddeo won their respective Primaries last month. British outlet The Economist and the conservative-leaning Washington Examiner rank the contest as “the most competitive in the House.”