Prediction market moves further toward Ron DeSantis, Marco Rubio
Prediction markets are moving and that's bad news for Dems.

Ron DeSantis CHARLIE CRIST Demings Rubio
Investors are saying yes to GOP incumbents.

Good news abounds for the re-election prospects of Florida’s most high-profile Republicans on this year’s ballot.

Gov. Ron DeSantis and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio both appear poised to cruise to re-election, assuming one prediction market’s action is a meaningful indicator.

PredictIt shows prohibitive leads for the incumbents over respective Democratic nominees, Charlie Crist and Val Demings.

This is the latest in a series of signs that the formerly “purple” Florida, which weathered three statewide recounts just four years ago, may no longer be a bellwether swing state.

The Oct. 24 and Oct. 25 daily spot prices in the gubernatorial market showed the price for a “Yes” share on DeSantis at 97 cents, a high-water mark. Crist’s most recent prices for “Yes” shares have hovered between 4 and 5 cents.

Even though she never launched a campaign for Governor, Demings’ “Yes” shares are still priced in that market at 1 cent, signifying the investor disrespect for Crist down the stretch.

DeSantis has been the strong favorite among PredictIt investors for months, but the erosion of any Crist market appears to be underway here.

A similar and marginally less dire scenario is unfolding in the Senate race, where investor enthusiasm for Demings never took off. A “Yes” share for the “Republican” proposition (which is Rubio) was priced at 94 cents, while a Democratic “Yes” share was priced at just 8 cents. The Republican position has likewise improved over time.

Polling has shown Republicans as favorites in both races.

The University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Laboratory poll released Wednesday showed DeSantis routing Crist, 55% to 41%. Overall, the FiveThirtyEight polling average shows DeSantis up 9 points.

The UNF PORL poll also showed Rubio up by 11 points over Demings. That, again, is a bigger lead than the FiveThirtyEight average of 6 points.

A.G. Gancarski

A.G. Gancarski has written for FloridaPolitics.com since 2014. He is based in Northeast Florida. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter: @AGGancarski


9 comments

  • Tom

    October 26, 2022 at 1:38 pm

    Marco Rubio is an empty suit, a rusty nail, a rancid pot of Cuban coffee, a hot drink of piss on a summers day. Also Crist burned DeSantis completely to the ground in the debate. I was gonna vote for DeSantis and Rubio but now it’s gonna be Charlie and Val…and you should to.

  • Tom

    October 26, 2022 at 1:39 pm

    Legend Tom here.
    No surprise, we are looking at 55% for Gov or greater. For Senator Rubio, we are looking at 54% or greater for Marco.

    Chameleon and Dumings are dismal candidates. Old donkey and clueless, still looking for her gun. The only one worse is Nikki Fraud.

    This will ensure super majorities in legislature, new county elected and school bds.

    Enjoy the beat down! Dumcrats running for cover.

  • The Real Tom

    October 26, 2022 at 2:16 pm

    ⚠️ Fake Tom. Do not pay attention to this troll who tries to undo my comments by saying the opposite. Just vote for Val Demings!⚠️

  • Phyllis

    October 26, 2022 at 5:05 pm

    It’s the economy stupid and democrats are driving the country in the ground. Thank the Lord for a Republican Governor who fights for freedom, Parents rights, and secure boarders! Vote with your heart for America first!

  • marylou

    October 27, 2022 at 2:15 pm

    Most parents don’t want the right to ban books or discussions of LGBTQ+. Parents want the right for their child to be able to talk to and confide in a trusted teacher or counselor at school. Teachers have always BEGGED parents to get involved in their child’s classroom and school. Who is telling you that you can’t be involved in your child’s education??

  • marconni

    October 27, 2022 at 3:51 pm

    In order to survive the democrats need to insure a steady, new supply of low IQ voters.

  • eva

    October 27, 2022 at 5:05 pm

    I am already making an additional $43K suitable or more every month from home by performing genuinely uncomplicated and truthful tasks online. I really brought home $35K (amv-84) in income last month, which isn’t necessarily inheritable. Join up on this hobby right away to start increasing your online earnings by learning how to use the tools provided.

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  • Yrral

    October 27, 2022 at 8:04 pm

    Lots of Republicans never had a pot to piss in and window to throw it out if until those stimulus checks,stop coming,they will be pawning them guns ,they bought with stimulus money

  • David

    October 27, 2022 at 8:14 pm

    Goggle which party does the best for our economy. Enough said , no one could have fixed it after the sh.. show that was left behind!

Comments are closed.


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