Chuck Clemons goes head-to-head with Brandon Peters in bid for a fourth term

Republican state Rep. Chuck Clemons is hoping to return to Tallahassee for a fourth and final term representing the Gainesville area. He just needs to defeat Democratic nominee Brandon Peters.

Clemons is expected to win on Nov. 8, as the newly drawn House District carries a mild GOP advantage — it went for Donald Trump at the top of the ticket in 2020 by a slight margin — and Florida Republicans have a strong tailwind this year.

The incumbent’s district under the old maps, House District 21, went for President Joe Biden by a narrow margin. But the likely culprit was defection among highly educated Republicans living in the Gainesville suburbs, as the same ballots saw Clemons defeat a strong, well-funded and party-backed Democrat by 2 points.

Just like the HD 21 contests of past years, Democrats had high hopes for the new HD 22. Voter registrations make it seem like a winnable seat on paper. ACRs are largely Democrats and they vote in high numbers — according to L2 voter data, five out of six HD 22 Dems over 25 cast a ballot in the General Election two years ago.

But the presence of the University of Florida (UF) and Santa Fe College, which have about 60,000 students between them, mutes townie turnout.

Pair that with high-propensity GOP voters in the affluent Gainesville suburbs such as Haile Plantation, as well as the deep-red Gilchrist and Levy counties, and Florida Democrats have a district that looks tantalizing in the classical sense — always in reach, never in hand.

Clemons also holds the power of incumbency and a monstrous fundraising advantage.

Heading into the final weeks of the race, the Newberry lawmaker had raised nearly $300,000 in hard money, while his political committee, Florida Shines, had also pulled $300,000-plus this cycle and wasn’t shy about spending it.

Peters has fight, though.

His campaign has collected $178,000 in hard money and his political committee, Friends of Brandon Peters, pulled in another $27,000. That still puts him at a three-to-one disadvantage, but it’s more than enough money to get the word out, especially in a district that imports eager and enthusiastic campaign volunteers by the thousands.

Peters should not be discounted out of hand. His Levy roots could dent Clemons’ support in the crimson county. Moderate Republican women could cross the aisle over abortion rights. The fickle student voter bloc could also be motivated by that issue as well as the UF C-suite’s recent flirtations with the right-wing.

Unlike abortion, anger over the university’s GOP swing has not had time to fade from voters’ memories. It has only been a matter of days since UF stamped out protests against its recent, and woefully opaque, decision to crown U.S. Sen. Ben Sasse as the next king of Gator Nation.

And the sentiment among moderates here is that UF’s “please sir, may I have another” attitude toward the Governor’s Office is tarnishing the reputation of a billion-dollar economic engine. Some non-MAGA Republicans, too, have worries on that front, as Gainesville’s small-but-growing tech economy relies on UF grads with high-value degrees deciding to plant roots in one of Florida’s few remaining blue oases.

That’s a lot of ifs for Peters to win, but none of them are on the fringe.