It’s not entirely a surprise in a district drawn for a Republican advantage, but Sen. Aaron Bean is looking at a healthy lead in the 4th Congressional District going into Election Day against Democratic nominee LaShonda “L.J.” Holloway, according to recent polling by the Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL) at the University of North Florida (UNF).
Bean came in with 50% among respondents, while 38% chose Holloway and 12% said they didn’t know, or refused to answer.
“This race has been on a lot of folks’ radar since CD 4 was redrawn earlier this year, especially given legal challenges and criticism of the new districts as watering down the Black vote in North Florida,” Mike Binder, PORL faculty director and UNF professor of political science, said in a statement. “Not only has L.J. Holloway likely feeling some of these redistricting effects as a Black Democrat, but she’s also been far outspent by Bean on the campaign trail.”
With coverage ending Oct. 19, Bean raised more than $1 million so far toward his congressional effort, spending more than $833,000 of that along the way. Holloway raised and spent less than $10,000 as of mid-October for the duration of her campaign.
There are some revealing aspects to the poll, like the candidates are tied, 39% apiece, among unaffiliated voters, and Holloway is beating Bean among female voters 47%-42%. Among age groups, Holloway leads her Republican opponent 65%-24% for those aged 18-24, 43%-36% among people aged 25-34, and 43%-42% for people aged 35-44.
Meanwhile, Bean claims 71% of Hispanic support, and has 20-point-plus leads among the 45-54-year-olds, 55-64-year-olds and people aged 65-plus.
The margin of error for the CD 4 sample is plus or minus 5.4 points. PORL’s Jax Speaks Poll, of which this result was a part, took place Oct. 20-27, with 413 registered voters in the CD 4 sample, which was different from a Duval County sample used in the same poll for Jacksonville Sheriff and Mayor campaigns.
The CD 4 sample had 45% self-identifying Republicans, 39% Democrats and 17% unaffiliated or other, splitting 55% female to 45% male. Ethnicity among those sampled broke down to 62% white, 28% Blacck, 4% Hispanic and 6% other.
A voter was considered likely if they voted in the 2018 midterm General Election and/or the 2022 Primary, or they registered to vote in Florida in 2020 or later. People who said they would probably or definitely not vote were screened from the survey.
Holloway earned her nomination with an upset win over former Sen. Tony Hill, 50.2%-49.8%, or 29,352 votes to 29,145. Bean defeated businessman Erick Aguilar in the GOP Primary 68.1%-25.8%, with another candidate, Jon Chuba, claiming 6.1%. Bean pulled 48,601 votes in the Primary to Aguilar’s 18,410 and Chuba’s 4,342.