Poll: Janet Cruz holds commanding lead in Tampa City Council battle

Image via Janet Cruz campaign.

Former Sen. Janet Cruz is leading her opposition by double digits, according to a new St. Pete Polls survey taken Feb. 28 through March 1.

The poll, taken among 345 likely Tampa voters, showed Cruz leading her closest competitor, incumbent Lynn Hurtak, by nearly 17 percentage points, at 34% to 17% overall. When looking at those who indicated they had already voted, Cruz led 43% to 14%, and among those who plan to vote, Cruz led 33% to 19.2%.

Still, nearly 32% of those who plan to vote but haven’t already, said they were still undecided in the race.

It’s also worth noting the poll has a relatively large margin of error, at 5.3 percentage points.

Cruz is running for the citywide District 3 seat Hurtak was appointed to last year after former City Council member John Dingfelder resigned. Since then, she has been one of three members on the Council to frequently oppose Mayor Jane Castor’s agenda or vote in favor of items that would erode her executive authority.

To some, the race is a referendum on Castor, whose longtime partner, lobbyist Ana Cruz, is Janet Cruz’s daughter.

Hurtak called out the familial relationship during a recent NAACP candidate forum, prompting Janet Cruz to respond harshly, asking Hurtak if she had a problem with gay people. The video of Cruz’s response has since gone somewhat viral locally, with Tampa progressives sharing it widely to condemn Cruz and what they describe as dirty campaign tactics.

While Hurtak seems to have cornered the market on Tampa progressives, it’s actually Cruz who is leading among Democrats. Both candidates are registered Democrats even though the race is nonpartisan. Cruz earned 45% support among Democrats in the poll, compared to about 20% for Hurtak.

But Cruz also leads among registered Republicans, with 26% support to 12% for Hurtak.

Cruz leads Hurtak in almost every demographic, including most significantly among Black voters, who back Cruz over Hurtak at 55% to 5%.

But Hurtak leads in one demographic so far. Tampa’s youngest voters ages 18 to 29 favor Hurtak at nearly 18% to just shy of 12% for Cruz. Still, nearly 59% of young voters surveyed remain undecided.

Of the three other candidates on the ballot — K.J. Allen, George Feshev and Jose Vasquez — none reached 10% in the poll overall. Allen showed nearly 11% support among those who had already voted, but posted less than 2% support among those who still plan to vote.

Even with Cruz’s solid lead and the large number of voters who are still undecided, the crowded field means a runoff election may be coming for Cruz and Hurtak if neither candidate receives 50% plus one vote after ballots are all tallied following the March 7 election. If a runoff is necessary, it will be held April 25, with early voting running from April 17-23.

Early voting is already underway for the March election and will run through March 5.