Peter Schorsch
Tampa City Council member Orlando Gudes leads his challenger for the District 5 seat by about 6 percentage points, according to the most recent survey of the race by St. Pete Polls.
Of the 109 likely Tampa voters polled, 29% said they supported the incumbent, including 38.5% support among those who had already voted and just under 29% support among those who planned to vote.
His challenger, Gwen Henderson, posted just 23% support overall, with 23% of those who already voted saying they cast a ballot for the challenger and the same amount who said they planned to.
But anything could happen in the race. Gudes’ lead is well within the poll’s very large margin of error (9.4 percentage points) and nearly 49% of voters polled were still undecided in the race.
Gudes is facing a potentially difficult re-election battle this year after a city investigation last year found credible accusations that Gudes made inappropriate comments and created a hostile work environment. Gudes was cleared in a harassment lawsuit, but the allegations against him have followed nonetheless, especially with the City of Tampa settling with the accusing employee for $200,000.
Still, incumbency matters in Tampa’s municipal races, which are off-year elections and typically feature low turnout. And Gudes has found support among Tampa’s progressive base, many of whom are supporting him as part of a trio of incumbents who often vote against Mayor Jane Castor’s administration, or vote for items that would erode her executive authority.
Poll results seem to reflect that, with Gudes posting nearly 34% support among Democrats, compared to 23% for Henderson. He also leads among Republicans though, with 27% support compared to just 9% for Henderson. However, an overwhelming 64% of GOP voters are still undecided in the race.
Both candidates are tied among White voters, but Gudes has an edge among Black voters, with 37.5% support to 22% support.
Gudes leads among both men and women. He’s tied with Henderson among the city’s youngest voters, those ages 18-29, and trails among the 30-49 demographic (21% to 37%,) but has a commanding lead among voters 50-69 (31% to 10%) and those 70 and up (41% to 26.5%).
Gudes also has a clear money advantage, with nearly $44,000 raised as of the most recent campaign finance reports. Henderson, meanwhile, has raised just shy of $15,000.
St. Pete Polls did not survey voters on a third candidate, write-in Evelyn Jane-Marie McBride, who has raised just $10 and posted $90 in in-kind contributions.
Tampa’s municipal election is Mar. 7. Early voting is already underway and runs through Mar. 5.
