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A poll of New Hampshire voters shows Donald Trump increasing his lead over Ron DeSantis in a GOP Primary. But it also found DeSantis polling closer to Joe Biden in a General Election matchup for President, and winning independents.
Quinnipiac University polled registered Republicans and Republican-leaning voters on who they prefer. Former President Trump, who already announced he will run in 2024, leads the pack with 46% support. Gov. DeSantis, who is expected to announce within a couple months, polls at 32%. Both are clearly in the top tier, with former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley showing at 5% and no one else clearing 3%.
When pollsters asked Republican-leaning voters who they would support in a head-to-head matchup between Trump and DeSantis, Trump again came out on top 51% to 40%.
In either case, Trump holds a lead over DeSantis well beyond the poll’s 3.8-percentage-point margin of error.
“DeSantis might be the buzz in the GOP conversation, but for now Trump is seeing no erosion and, in fact, enjoys a bump in his lead in the Republican primary,” said Quinnipiac polling analyst Tim Malloy.
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But Trump’s lead over DeSantis in the Primary contrasts with DeSantis potentially performing better against President Biden.
In General Election matchups between the Democratic incumbent and either challenger, Biden holds a lead. In a rematch against Trump, Biden leads 49% to 45%. The Democrat in 2020 won New Hampshire with nearly 53% to Trump’s almost 46%.
Against DeSantis, Biden holds a razor-thin edge of 47% to 46%. That’s well within that section’s 2.3-percentage-point margin of error.
There are a number of demographic groups where DeSantis performs better against Biden than Trump does, even some that have long been considered key parts of Trump’s base.
Non-college-educated Whites, for example, break for Trump over Biden by a 60% to 37% margin. But DeSantis does better, leading Biden 62% to 34% with that group. Among college-educated Whites, Biden wins over both candidates, but DeSantis wins 41% of that vote while Trump wins 37%.
DeSantis in a head-to-head contest against Biden also would win the independent vote, 49% to 35%. Meanwhile, if the race were between Biden and Trump, Biden would win independents with 50% to Trump’s 42%.
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