Poll: Duval County Property Appraiser’s race headed to a photo finish

Another shift in focus for Fischer.

The latest public poll of the Duval County Property Appraiser’s race shows it’s too close to call with four weeks left before Election Day.

A University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab survey shows Republican Jason Fischer leads Democrat Joyce Morgan 49% to 47%. That lead is within the poll’s margin of error of +/- 3.8%.

The polling assumes an R+1 turnout, which would be a weaker performance for the GOP than the R+4 showing in March, offering another reason for optimism for Team Fischer.

Partisanship prevails in this race, with Morgan taking 88% of Democrats and Fischer commanding the support of 87% of Republicans. NPA voters are essentially an even split, with City Council member Morgan up 42% to 41% over Fischer, a former state legislator and member of the Duval County School Board.

The gender split is going Fischer’s way, as he leads Morgan among men, 49% to 39%. Morgan leads with female voters, 49% to 45%.

A definite racial split appears in the UNF poll. Morgan leads Fischer with Black voters, 95% to 2%. But among White voters, Fischer leads Morgan 62% to 28%. Hispanic voters are split, with 47% supporting both candidates.

Morgan leads with three of five age cohorts. She is up 24 points with voters under 25 years of age, up five points with those between 25 and 34, and up 12 points with those between 55 and 64.

Fischer leads by eight with voters between 35 and 44 years of age, and by 13 with voters 65 and older.

Fischer has rebounded and then some from the March election, which saw him behind Morgan, 48% to 31%. While Morgan could have won outright with 50.01%, she finished just short of that number, while Fischer split GOP vote share with Danny Becton, who had 22% in the First Election.

The live-dial poll was in the field April 10-14, the first public poll of the race, and another indication Republicans have a good shot at holding all Duval County constitutional offices for another four years.

Current Property Appraiser Jerry Holland has already won the Supervisor of Elections post he previously held, facing no opposition in that race. Likewise, Sheriff T.K. Waters was re-elected without opposition.