Here’s Brunch, a pop-up, weekend email during the 2023-24 campaign — 6.18.23

Fathers day Brunch restaurant invitation concept. Various Daddy Man Day Menu background, with traditional breakfast and lunch food set, with tie on sunny wooden background

Good morning and welcome back to “Brunch,” a pop-up email about the 2023-24 campaign, as well as other essential information about Florida politics.

Cheers to all the great dads in The Process — the men who so ably balance the intensity of their professional lives with their loving responsibilities as fathers.

This Father’s Day, I enjoyed reading this column from Colbert King, who writes: “You don’t have to be a man to do the things that good fathers and dedicated partners do. Anyone can be a good parent or even a halfway decent one. The important thing is to have a supportive, trusting and loving relationship with children. That takes time and attention. Whether it’s minutes or hours out of the day, no matter if you are bedraggled with worry or dog-tired from work, find and make time for children. Even if it is done as a surrogate.”

Happy birthday to former state Rep. Joe Harding. Belated best wishes to political consultant Brett Doster of the Front Line Agency, as well as Fred’s better half, Kristin Piccolo, and Scott’s better half, state Rep. Rachel Plakon.

Be sure to check out this week’s picks for the Winner and Loser of the Week in Florida politics (please click here.)

Now, enjoy Brunch!

— Hockey > politics —

Nevada Gov. Joe Lombardo hit the Vegas Strip Saturday to celebrate the Vegas Golden Knights’ victory over the Florida Panthers to win the Stanley Cup. And in a snub to special guest Gov. Ron DeSantis, Lombardo skipped the state’s Basque Fry, the annual conservative gathering co-hosted this year by former Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt and the pro-DeSantis Never Back Down political committee.

— Big bash: The Basque Fry is the largest annual non-party-sanctioned event in Nevada, and over the last eight years, the event has been a must-stop for statewide Republican candidates.

— A road too far: As reported by Stephanie Murray of The Messenger, Lombardo was slated to speak at the Basque Fry but said he could not travel to the event from Gardnerville to Las Vegas — more than 400 miles.

— Easy out: The Golden Knights parade gave Lombardo a “convenient excuse” to skip the event, which Nevada Republican Party Chair Michael McDonald said is becoming too political.

McDonald explained that the Basque Fry “used to be just for people to come out and see people, and I think when Adam turned this into a campaign event for DeSantis, it was very disingenuous, and it put a lot of people in bad positions. This went from a family fun event to a political event.”

— Pardon me? —

DeSantis is floating a possible pardon for Donald Trump as he faces 37 counts after allegedly keeping classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago estate post-presidency. Those counts include charges of espionage and illegal document retention.

— Rescuing a rival? The charges are far more serious than a case brought by the Manhattan District Attorney and may put a dent in Trump’s pursuit of the GOP nomination, depending on how voters respond. Yet DeSantis, Trump’s biggest rival for the nomination thus far (though he’s still trailing Trump significantly in the polls) appears to be teasing a life raft could be coming should DeSantis win the presidency.

— Coy comments: “I’m going to end the weaponization. And part of ending the weaponization is, yes, we’re going to clean house,” DeSantis said during a Friday interview on the “700 Club” regarding pardons, referring to sweeping changes at the FBI and Department of Justice. “But part of it is using your Article 2 powers to redress wrongs, including, potentially, pardons. And so, we said even before this happened with Trump, you know, we’ll have people who have been wronged before we come into office apply. We’re going to look if there is a different standard, we’re going to be very inclined to grant clemency in those situations.”

While far from a clear “yes,” the Governor appears intent on continuing to frame the charges as “wrong,” letting slide a chance to go after the top dog in the Republican field.

— Dunking on DeSantis —

As the Governor visits Nevada, an anti-DeSantis group is hitting the Republican presidential candidate on his since-retracted support for cutting Social Security and Medicare.

— The spot: The 15-second clip from DeSantis Watch features a narrator rebuking DeSantis for votes in Congress aiming to cut entitlement spending. “For us in Nevada, a life of hard work should mean the promise of a secure retirement,” the narrator says. “But Ron DeSantis voted to cut billions from Social Security and Medicare, breaking that promise to families like ours. It’s plain wrong. We can’t afford Ron DeSantis.”

To watch the ad, please click on the image below:

— Political weak spot? Trump has also tried hitting DeSantis on his willingness while a Congressman to rework the Social Security and Medicare programs. After dealing with those attacks for weeks earlier this year, ahead of his own presidential launch, DeSantis revised his position, flip-flopping to come out against any cuts. “Look, I have more seniors here than just about anyone as a percentage,” he said of Florida. “You know, we’re not going to mess with Social Security as Republicans. I think that that’s pretty clear.”

— Hits keep on coming: Despite his walk-back, political adversaries like Trump and DeSantis Watch continue framing the Governor as a threat to those programs. DeSantis clearly changed course after seeing his original position could be political poison, but who’s to say he won’t have another change of heart if he wins the White House? Whether Congress would approve such a plan, however, remains to be seen.

— The other Florida Man —

With Francis Suarez offering the newest fresh face to enter the 2024 presidential contest, he’s arguing he would be Democrats’ “biggest threat” in a General Election.

— Making his case: “I’m the biggest threat to the Democratic Party,” Suarez said on “Fox & Friends.” “I’m Hispanic, a conservative Republican from a big city. I mean, I’m the unicorn of all unicorns.” Suarez argued his candidacy “destroys their entire narrative and so they are threatened.”

— Dealing with a case? The Miami Mayor is also dealing with reports that the Miami-Dade Commission on Ethics and Public Trust and State Attorney Katherine Fernandez Rundle are looking into allegations that he violated the law or ethics rules by taking $170,000 from a developer with business before the city.

— Brushing it off: Suarez, for his part, has denied wrongdoing and is blaming the news media for bringing attention to the issue. “All of a sudden, my liberal, local newspaper starts to throw a bunch of things against the wall,” he said. He also referenced legal trouble for Trump, his Republican rival, arguing the justice system is biased against the GOP. “Unfortunately, we see this in every federal race and everybody, unfortunately, has to go through these kinds of things,” Suarez added.

— Poll position —

DeSantis may not have gotten the boost he wanted from his formal campaign launch, at least if national and state polling means anything.

— National numbers: The new Harvard-Harris Poll shows the Florida Governor with his weakest showing yet in the 2024 GOP Primary race. Donald Trump boasts 59% support, with DeSantis at 14%, with Mike Pence at 8%. The Big Village Politics poll has DeSantis at 15%, 41 points behind Trump … and just five up on Pence.

— New Hampshire nadir: The Granite State is also rocky. A New Hampshire Journal-Coefficient shows the Florida Governor with just 13% support, 34 points behind Trump, and just 4 points above a surging Chris Christie. A new National Research Inc. shows DeSantis with just 12% support, down 6 points from the May survey by the same outfit.

— California dreamin’: A new Emerson College Poll of California Republicans is the worst yet for the Florida Governor. DeSantis trails Trump, 53% to 19%. Mike Pence is making moves, meanwhile, with 10% support.

— But what about Maryland? Here’s some good-ish news for the Governor: A Gonzalez Poll conducted between May 30 and June 6 shows the Florida Governor just 5 points behind the former President, 42% to 37%, with 21% offering no answer to the question. The race shows a clear gender gap: Women prefer Trump, 51% to 30%. Men pick DeSantis, 43% to 35%. DeSantis is narrowly ahead with self-described moderate voters, 41% to 40%. He’s holding his own with conservatives also, with Trump leading 44% to 37%.

— Big spenders —

The next election is more than a year away, but that hasn’t stopped campaigns and super PACs from cutting checks to run ads in the 2024 Primary preseason, according to new data from ad booking and spending tracker AdImpact.

— That was then: Four years ago, campaigns and PACs spent about $21 million on ads between Jan. 1 and May 12. Now-President Joe Biden was only an official candidate for the last three weeks of that span.

— This is now-ish: Over the same dates in 2023, candidates spent $30 million — DeSantis-aligned Never Back Down PAC accounts for a good chunk of that, with $10.7 million in bookings to date according to AdImpact. Trump’s MAGA Inc. had also spent $10.7 million by mid-May while Biden and the Democratic National Committee had shelled out a combined $1.6 million.

— This is now: May 12 was a month ago, back when Team DeSantis was still playing the will-he-won’t-he game. Has the ad game changed in the weeks since? You betcha. In 2019, $33 million was spent between May 12 and June 2. Over the same dates this year, the figure jumped $53 million.

— What about inflation? Sure, it exists, but it only explains part of the $20 million bump — $33 million in 2019 dollars equates to about $39 million today.

— The real boost: The most significant factor, according to AdImpact, is the rise of “Connected TV” advertising, which went from nada to $7 million over the past four years. CTV ads are seen by viewers streaming content through apps on an actual television (including Rokus, AppleTVs and the like — don’t get pedantic). Notably, this is a separate category from “digital” which encompasses Google and Facebook buys.­

— Redondo readies a run —

Republican Mike Redondo is jumping into the House District 118 race, aiming to succeed outgoing Rep. Juan Fernandez-Barquin.

— Background: Redondo is a lawyer who worked in Holland & Knight’s Miami office before founding Redondo Law, P.A. He’s worked on personal injury claims, wrongful death cases and products liability suits, among other areas of law.

— What he’s saying: “As the son of Cuban immigrants, I understand the importance of having leaders in our state who will never back down in the face of radical left-wing attempts to indoctrinate our children and erode our freedoms,” Redondo said upon entering the race, according to a campaign release. “We need to send leaders to Tallahassee who will build on the conservative leadership of our Legislature and Gov. DeSantis and continue to make Florida a nationwide leader in economic growth, parental involvement, fiscal health, and preserving liberty for generations to come. That is what our campaign will focus on and I’m excited to share our conservative vision at each and every doorstep in District 118.”

— Special Election? Nothing has been set, but we’re expecting a Special Election in the Miami-Dade County district after the Governor appointed Fernandez-Barquin to serve as Miami-Dade County’s Clerk of Courts and Comptroller. Fernandez-Barquin is finishing out the term of former Clerk Harvey Ruvin, who died in office.

— Dad’s day —

More than three-quarters of Americans plan to celebrate Father’s Day, according to new data from the National Retail Federation.

— Significant spend: The average consumer is spending $196.23 on gifts this holiday, a $24.40 increase from last year. That’s still lower than the organization’s estimate for Mother’s Day this year ($274.02), but Father’s Day sales are expected to hit a record $22.9 billion across the country.

— Popular picks: The most common gifts this year were greeting cards (picked by 61% of respondents), clothing (55%), a special outing (52%), gift cards (48%) and personal care items (32%).

— Not just fathers: Many are using today to thank other men in their lives, with husbands (27% of respondents), sons (11%), brothers (9%), friends (8%) and grandfathers (7%) all benefiting.

— Single dad doldrums —

While many are celebrating this Father’s Day, single dads in at least two Florida cities are feeling the hurt. That’s according to a survey from LawnStarter, which ranked the best and worst cities in the U.S. for single dads to live.

— Bottom 10: Two Florida cities ranked among the worst 10 cities for single dads (technically the worst 11, since there was a tie for 10th). Hialeah was ranked the seventh worst city, while Port St. Lucie was tied for 10th with Garland, Texas. No Florida city ranked in the Top 10. While that’s a ding against Florida, Texas fared far worse, with six cities (Brownsville, Killeen, Mesquite, Laredo, Pasadena and Garland) near the bottom.

— Methodology: The outlet judged cities based on six categories: affordability, child care, health and education, home and outdoors, work-life balance and community support. Both Florida cities got hit most heavily on work-life balance (hours worked, commute time, etc.) and community support (single dads per capita, number of fatherhood programs, etc.) ratings.

— Florida fail: Florida fared poorly overall in the list of 200 cities. Tallahassee placed the best of any Florida city, at No. 114. That was followed by St. Petersburg (124), Tampa (131), Pembroke Pines (134), Miramar (144), Orlando (151), Jacksonville (155), Fort Lauderdale (160), Hollywood (164), Miami (183) and Cape Coral (188).

—Today’s political TV —

ABC Action News Full Circle with Paul LaGrone on Channel 10 WFTS: ABC News Political Director Rick Klein, Tallahassee reporter Forrest Saunders, Michael Paluska of ABC Action News.

Facing South Florida with Jim DeFede on CBS 4 in Miami: The Sunday show provides viewers with an in-depth look at South Florida politics and other issues affecting the region.

In Focus with Allison Walker on Bay News 9/CF 13: A discussion of LGBTQ-related bills passed by the Florida Legislature during their annual lawmaking Session. Joining Walker are Rep. Rayner-Goolsby and Tatiana Quiroga, Executive Director of Come Out with Pride.

Political Connections on Bay News 9 in Tampa/St. Pete: An interview with Jon Sale, an attorney and former federal prosecutor, on Trump’s federal indictment out of Miami.

Political Connections on CF 13 in Orlando: A discussion with Congressman Michael Waltz about the federal budget, the debt ceiling and military spending.

The Usual Suspects on WCTV-Tallahassee/Thomasville (CBS) and WJHG-Panama City (NBC): Sean Pittman and Brenda Williams of the Housing Authority.

This Week in Jacksonville with Kent Justice on Channel 4 WJXT: Duval County Property Appraiser-elect Joyce Morgan, defense attorney and former federal prosecutor Curtis Fallgatter, and News4Jax political analyst Rick Mullaney.

— U.S. Open drama —

It’s the first Sunday after the conclusion of the NBA and NHL playoffs, and golf takes center stage with the third major of the season. Here’s what’s on tap today:

— Major drama: It’s been a wild ride for the world of professional golf since the announcement of the partnership between the PGA Tour and the Saudi Public Investment Fund last week. This afternoon, the third major will be settled during the final round of the U.S. Open. The top of the leaderboard offers some intriguing storylines.

— Can Ricky Fowler win his first major? The former PGA Tour wunderkind hasn’t won a PGA Tour event since 2018. It would be a huge moment for Fowler. Others in contention include Rory McIlroy, the PGA Tour’s most vocal supporter during the short-lived battle with LIV Golf, also backed by the PIF. Two golfers who took the Saudi money to play for LIV golf are also in the hunt. Dustin Johnson and Bryson DeChambeau. And don’t count out the world’s number-one ranked player, Scottie Scheffler. Final round coverage begins at noon ET on Peacock and continues from 1-10 p.m. on Peacock and NBC.

— Gators in the College World Series: After Florida rallied with three runs in the bottom of the ninth to beat Virginia 6-5 in their opener in Omaha, the Gators face Oral Roberts at 7 p.m. ET in a winner’s bracket game. With a victory, the Gators would advance to within one victory of an appearance in the CWS championship round.

Remarkably, Florida has advanced this far in the NCAA postseason without huge contributions from their best player, Jac Caglianone. The second-team All-American has just six hits in 31 at-bats in the NCAA tournament. If he gets back to his regular season form, look out. The Gators could be hoisting the trophy as College World Series champions for the second time in school history.

— Scallop season starts —

The Fenholloway River through the Suwannee River zone is now open for those looking to snag some scallops.

— Where and when: The area opened this past Thursday and will remain open through Labor Day (Sept. 4). The zone includes all state waters in Dixie County, a portion of Taylor County, the towns of Keaton Beach and Steinhatchee and a small portion of Levy County.

— Know your limits: Through June, individual bag limits sit at 1 gallon of whole bay scallops in-shell or 1 cup of shucked bay scallop meat. For vessels, the cap is 5 gallons whole or two pints (4 cups) of shucked meat. From July 1 onward, the limit is 2 gallons of whole bay scallops in-shell or 1 pint of bay scallop meat, per person. Per vessel limits are 10 gallons of whole scallops in-shell or a half-gallon (4 pints) of shucked meat. Scallops may be collected by hand or with a landing or dip net, and commercial harvesting is not allowed.

— Other options: Scallop season begins July 1 in Citrus, Hernando, Levy and Pasco counties, as well as in Franklin County through northwestern Taylor County. The season starts Aug. 16 in St Joseph Bay.

— U.S. Sugar saves the day —

The C.S. Mott Community Pool has reopened thanks to a partnership between U.S. Sugar and the city of Clewiston. That’s fitting, as the pool is named after U.S. Sugar’s founder, Charles Stewart Mott.

— Sweet story: The pool needed upgrades to comply with the state’s pool regulations, so U.S. Sugar stepped in to help renovate the facility. The pool now has a diving board and a slide, as well as improved filtration and purification systems. Also new: a lightning detection system that scans the area within 40 miles. Fifty people can now occupy the pool.

— Giving thanks: “Community Partnerships have always been a way for our city to thrive. The city commissioners and I are grateful for the generosity of the employees of U.S. Sugar, who are always willing to get involved,” said Clewiston Mayor Jimmy Pittman. “I’m thrilled the local kids are going to have a great Summer at the pool.”

— Stepping up: “Our founder Charles Stewart Mott always said, ‘What’s good for our community is good for our company,’” added Brannan Thomas, Community Relations Director for U.S. Sugar. “This community pool that bears his great name is now reopened for all members of our community to enjoy.”