Staff Reports
Last Call — A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.
First Shot
New polling from Florida Atlantic University shows Donald Trump with a commanding lead among Florida Republicans, but he’s not the best equipped for the General Election.
The former President leads Gov. Ron DeSantis, 50% to 30%, in a poll of 315 likely voters in next year’s GOP Primary. However, it’s DeSantis who holds the edge in a head-to-head against Democratic President Joe Biden.
FAU’s Mainstreet PolCom Lab found the Governor with a 49%-36% lead over the incumbent compared to a 49%-39% advantage for Trump. Still, Trump’s edge has grown significantly since October, when FAU showed him up 45%-41% — there was no DeSantis vs. Biden question in that poll.
The new polling meshes with past measures from other outlets, including a March poll conducted by the University of North Florida that showed the Governor up 52%-44% in a hypothetical head-to-head. The same poll found Trump leading Biden 50%-44%.
“These poll results could be an important motivator for DeSantis to promote his bid for the Republican Primary, as he may be a stronger candidate against the incumbent,” said Dukhong Kim, an associate Professor of Political Science at FAU.
No matter which Republican ends up on the ballot, Kim said Florida’s further shedding the swing state label.
“The poll indicates that the margin held by Trump or DeSantis at this time is larger than the 3.3 percent vote difference observed in the 2020 Presidential Election, suggesting that Florida is shifting toward becoming a safe state for Republicans.”
FAU conducted the poll from June 27-July 1 using automated telephone interviews. The margin of error for the General Election result is +/- 3.2 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.
Evening Reads
—“Ron DeSantis’ stumbles have GOP mulling other Donald Trump alternatives” via Alexander Bolton of The Hill
—“DeSantis is betting the farm on trans hate” via Christina Cauterucci of Slate
—”DeSantis’ very gay ad: Who made this steaming pile?” via Diane Roberts of the Florida Phoenix
—”DeSantis rejects ‘America’s Karen’ dis of Casey DeSantis” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics
—“DeSantis doesn’t know whether he’s coming or going” via Gail Collins and Bret Stephens of The New York Times
—“Do all Florida counties need partisan elections for constitutional offices?” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics
—”Florida school boards will no longer get final say on book challenges” via Jeffrey S. Solochek of the Tampa Bay Times
—“Heavy-handed political interference poisons FAU search” via Steve Bousquet of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel
—“How Vivek Ramaswamy became a major presidential candidate” via Nathaniel Rakich of FiveThirtyEight
—”The writers who went undercover to show America its ugly side” via Samuel G. Freedman of The Atlantic
Quote of the Day
“50 Cent is saying what we all know but radical, soft-on-crime leaders fail to accept — the zero-bail policy employed by cities like L.A. leads to spikes in violent crime.”
— Attorney General Ashley Moody, claiming cashless bail policies cause crime.
Bill Day’s latest
Breakthrough Insights
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Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.
