Daniel Tilson
Data about Florida’s Election 2014 registered voter population confirms what a lot of people already sense or know.
Growing numbers of independent voters registered with “No Party Affiliation” (NPA) are not so slowly, steadily, throwing traditional two-party machine politics in Florida for a loop.
While Democratic and Republican “get out the vote” strategists and grassroots activists finish up efforts to turn out more loyalists than the competition, the results of the Crist-Scott battle and other close races statewide could hinge on NPA voters who are unmoved by “preaching to the choir” messaging.
In fact, the hyper-partisan nature of campaign communications these days is driving the rising tide of NPA voter registration.
NPAs went from being more than a fifth to more than a quarter of the Florida electorate from 2010-2014. It wouldn’t be surprising if they reached or exceeded one-third parity with Democrats and Republicans by 2018.
The challenge for both parties moving forward is to recognize and get out in front of the trend, with the right messaging strategy.
Most NPAs seem in search of a centrist blend of traditionally Republican-branded “fiscal conservatism” and Democratic-branded “social liberalism”.
Younger NPAs are uncomfortable with a Republican Party of Florida catering to older, whiter people who are passionately against things — including health care reform, women’s reproductive rights, gay marriage rights, immigrant rights, liberalized marijuana laws, and separation of church and state.
Hispanic and Latino NPA voters are understandably disinclined to affiliate with a GOP that attacks and packs Florida’s for-profit prisons and “detention centers” with undocumented immigrants, and blocks Democratic initiatives to raise the minimum wage and expand health care access to the uninsured.
But, NPA voters remain suspicious of the Democratic Party as well.
While working on a primary campaign last spring, a 20-something web designer on the team asked me why he should switch from NPA to Democrat.
He said, “The Republicans, they scare me. But…I want what’s mine, I want to build my business my way, don’t want government getting in the way. I’m a fiscal conservative, man.”
The ever-growing numbers of good-hearted, fair-minded but still “want what’s mine” NPA voters like that, they question whether the Democratic Party can handle their money wisely, run government cost-effectively, and stay off their backs if they make some real money.
Moving through this final week of the 2014 campaign and on toward the 2016 presidential election, the Florida Democratic Party is poised to make great gains with these voters — if they connect the dots for them and reassure them.
By redefining the Republican myth of “fiscal conservatism” as a Democratic commitment to fiscal responsibility, and owning the issue, the FDP can soothe NPA fears.
Remind them that by giving hundreds of millions in tax “incentives” to corporations in exchange for jobs that were never created, Rick Scott and RPOF legislators proved how fiscally irresponsible they are.
By allowing hugely profitable corporations to hide profits and skip out on paying billions in taxes, Rick Scott and RPOF legislators proved how fiscally irresponsible they are.
By refusing to uplift the working poor and get them off taxpayer-financed public assistance with a minimum wage hike and health care expansion, Rick Scott and RPOF legislators proved how fiscally irresponsible they are.
In contrast, by striving to collect corporate taxes fairly, focus tax incentives on small businesses, and make lower-income Floridians more self-sufficient, the Democratic Party proves to be the party of fiscal responsibility and shared economic growth that most NPAs are looking for.
And hell, you don’t have to be a registered Democrat to vote for Democratic principles and policies.
Daniel Tilson has a Boca Raton-based communications firm called Full Cup Media, specializing in online video and written content for non-profits, political candidates and organizations, and small businesses. Column courtesy of Context Florida.
