GOP poll shows Joe Biden beating Donald Trump; his lead would grow if Trump were convicted

Trump biden
The poll found Kamala Harris hurting the Democratic ticket, but Trump's candidacy helping it.

National polling from a Republican outlet shows Donald Trump’s candidacy could do more to boost enthusiasm for Joe Biden.

Moreover, a conviction could hurt Trump severely in a General Election matchup.

WPA Intelligence, a firm tied to Gov. Ron DeSantis’ presidential campaign, surveyed registered voters nationwide and found Biden leading Trump 43% to 41%. The Democrat’s 2-percentage-point lead falls within the poll’s 3.1% margin of error.

But pollsters also asked voters if Trump was found guilty of a crime before the election, a genuine prospective after the former President was indicted in two states and federal court. Of note, 76% of respondents who were undecided on a Biden-Trump matchup supported the most recent indictment of Trump in Georgia.

When faced with the choice of re-electing Biden or supporting Trump post-conviction, Biden takes a 45% to 39% lead. That’s mainly because many Republicans and pro-Trump independents would sit out the election, while many more independents who favor Trump now would switch their support to Biden.

Pollsters surveyed 1,005 voters nationwide. While the poll was conducted independently, the firm acknowledged its CEO advises the pro-DeSantis super PAC Never Back Down.

Notably, Biden never climbs above 50%, even in the event of a Trump conviction. That’s generally a bad sign for an incumbent seeking re-election.

That could be attributed to low enthusiasm for the Democratic ticket. Pollsters found that when Democrats were asked to rate enthusiasm for Biden on a scale of 1 to 10, just 24% gave a score of 10.

However, when asked how they feel about supporting Biden if Trump wins the Republican nomination, the percentage giving the maximum rating jumped to 55%.

“Biden’s largest spikes in enthusiasm came from women, young voters, and minorities when Trump is introduced as the hypothetical Republican nominee,” a polling memo states. “Nevertheless, as the poll indicates, Biden still faces major hurdles in his re-election bid, including concerns about inflation and border security.”

Another hurdle may be Kamala Harris’ unpopularity. According to the polling, the Vice President’s approval ratings sit at -20% overall. That’s lower than Biden’s, though he is also underwater with a net -19% approval.

Notably, both Democrats fared better with respondents than Trump, who had a -29% rating overall.

The polling found Biden more popular than Harris, America’s first Black Vice President. The President holds a +49% rating with Black voters, while Harris is just +42%.

But a Trump candidacy is also particularly motivating for Black voters. While 33% of Black voters rated their enthusiasm for Biden at 10 in initial surveys, that number jumped to 55% if Trump is the GOP nominee.

That could be consequential for Trump’s hopes of returning to the Oval Office. But his nomination could also hurt down-ballot Republicans, pollsters note, as many stay-at-home voters won’t be supporting Republicans running for Senate, House and other partisan races.

“The down-ballot implications of Trump’s conviction could cost Republicans their House majority,” the polling memo says.

Trump’s insistence the 2020 Election was stolen from him also could create problems for down-ballot Republicans. Voters by a 31-point margin say they will be less likely to support a candidate who asserts the last election was stolen. About 51% of voters signaled they would be less likely to support any candidate claiming 2020 was stolen, compared to 12% who would be more likely to support someone taking that position.

WPA — September Poll Memo — Final by Jacob Ogles on Scribd

Jacob Ogles

Jacob Ogles has covered politics in Florida since 2000 for regional outlets including SRQ Magazine in Sarasota, The News-Press in Fort Myers and The Daily Commercial in Leesburg. His work has appeared nationally in The Advocate, Wired and other publications. Events like SRQ’s Where The Votes Are workshops made Ogles one of Southwest Florida’s most respected political analysts, and outlets like WWSB ABC 7 and WSRQ Sarasota have featured his insights. He can be reached at [email protected].


  • Sonja Fitch

    September 22, 2023 at 4:39 am

    In America we do for the common good ! We debate. We elect leaders. The ego and constant bs IS NOT American! We swing from left to right! That is who we are!!! Thank you Joe Biden!

  • My Take

    September 22, 2023 at 8:38 am

    Unsurprising unstated conclusion :
    Vote DeSStortus.

  • Earl Pitts American

    September 22, 2023 at 12:35 pm

    Good afternoon America,
    The artical credits the “polling” to a fake orginazation with the “We are no longer even trying to lie any longer” name “a Republican outlet”.
    “A Republican Outlet” my, Earl Pitts American’s”, BIG ‘OLE BUTT”.
    Oh Boy America the Dook 4 Brains left is really going to take an epic 2024-2028 @ZZ Whooping from The God Fearing Freedom Loving American Patriots.
    Thank you America,
    *Free Bumper Sticker*

    • Joe The Plumber

      September 22, 2023 at 12:39 pm

      Epic bumper sticker.
      Best ever. Joe

      • Silly Wabbit

        September 22, 2023 at 4:12 pm

        It stewpid.

  • Rick Whitaker

    September 22, 2023 at 1:29 pm

    a loose definition of a con-man is; a person that will tell you what you want to hear, and then rip you off, and if they are good at coning, then will blame it on someone else and you will once again believe them. that sounds like trump and desantis to me. polls at this point in time are not to educational. dems should always act like they are behind to prevent complacency. remember the hillary clinton race. when mega-donors and corporations are funding your opponents, it’s always uphill.

    • Earl Pitts American

      September 22, 2023 at 2:11 pm

      Thanks Rick,
      Let us take a golden moment to harken back to the election eve of 2016. Granny Hillary had a barge docked in the harbor of Dook 4 Brains Leftist Central which we know better as The Big Apple AKA New York City.
      The barge was loaded to capacity with fireworks intended to create a massive Granny Hill’s Glass Ceiling Bustin POTUS winning kick-off to a Grand Nation-Wide …. nay …nay … I should say …. It was a Grand World-Wide Dook 4 Brains Leftist winning Celebration of non-stop “Dancing With The Devil …. XXX Rated Debauchary….
      Flash back to NYC Harbor where we have Granny Hill’s humble man-servent, Roseveldt Jackson, on location standing by to Light Up The Night ….
      It was around 8:32 and 16 seconds in the evening and Granny Hill’s man servent had his thumb on the detionator which would set off the massive victorious fireworks display in celebration of the Granny Hill’s defeat of the Meany MAGA Man….when the fatefull phone call came in …. “Yes Mrs. Clinton its me Roseveldt Jackson, your humble man-servent …. should I set off the glorious victorious “We Won Trump Lost” Fireworks Display Now? …. whats that Mrs. C ? ….. I cant hear you through all the Wailing abd Gnashing of Teeth … Mrs C …. Mrs C …. ?????
      Thanks again Rick … “Memories pressed between the pages of my mind … Memories mellowed thru the ages just like wine …. sweet memories …. sweet sweet memories …. “

      • Rick Whitaker

        September 22, 2023 at 9:06 pm

        how does pearl stand you, or is she dead. you sound like an uber chauvinist . let’s see you are a racist. sexist, ageist, science denier, book banner, homophobe, bible beater, meat eater, anti-environmentalist, floridian, and senile. yeah i didn’t mention your deepest secret flaw but many people know about it, so i guess it’s not a secret. does that leg bracelet rub you raw. billy purser, you are not funny, quit trying

  • My Take

    September 22, 2023 at 3:36 pm

    WHAT will MAGA do when Trump is defeated AGAÌN?

    • Biscuit

      September 22, 2023 at 4:14 pm

      The MAGATS will turn into flies and find another pile of manure to land upon.
      Stupid humans.

      • Biscuit

        September 22, 2023 at 4:17 pm


      • My Take

        September 22, 2023 at 5:59 pm

        They’ve been Teabaggers.
        Now MAGA maggots.
        What dunghill next?

    • Richard Russell

      September 23, 2023 at 6:03 pm

      What will you do when Xi Jinping kicks your ass as he will for all Americans who don’t kiss his ass. But then maybe you are non American, CCP Shill.

  • My Take

    September 22, 2023 at 7:42 pm

    KAMALA 2026

    Biden needs to trounce Trump to presèrve America. He should work several more years on his programs and plans. And then take a well deserved retirement.
    Leaving President Kamala to run as an incumbant in 2028.

    • Richard Russell

      September 23, 2023 at 6:01 pm

      Your take is as a Marxist puppet of the Soros wing of the Democrap party

  • My Take

    September 23, 2023 at 9:40 am

    “Biden . . . his lead would grow if Trump were convicted”

    And if imprisoned?

  • Richard Russell

    September 23, 2023 at 6:00 pm

    It’s called a rigged jury – and you don’t think the Dems will somehow pull off a conviction which Trump will be able to get thrown out or dismissed upon appeal, but after the election. Then the idiots who buy the Dems lies, will be left with 4 more years of Bidenisita Marxism and America will be officially relegated to the pile of s… of a 3rd world country puppet state of Xi Jinping’s Marxist Communist party!

  • My Take

    September 23, 2023 at 6:25 pm

    Just look at Franco’s fascist (Falangist) Spain to see what Tramp’s or DeSSgustus’s America would loo like, with big evangelical collaborators instead of Catholic, and less shooting.

    • My Take

      September 23, 2023 at 6:49 pm

      And far less involvement by the military.

    • Rick Whitaker

      September 23, 2023 at 8:21 pm

      i was in spain when franco ruled. the place was spotless, but the people were scared to death. it was really different from the rest of europe at that time. very noticeable difference.

      • My Take

        September 24, 2023 at 12:27 am

        The writer Mencken noticed that change in some Italian port city, probably Naples, after Mussolini arrived. Shabbyness of all sorts left, fear arrived, at least for the shabby.

        • Rick Whitaker

          September 24, 2023 at 4:11 pm

          when i was touring europe in ’71 barcellona was the cleanest city and naples was the dirtiest. i don’t remember who ran italy in ’71

          • My Take

            September 24, 2023 at 9:22 pm

            Yeah. Got dirty again.
            At the end of WWII Naples was again notorious.
            It is said tha a US Navy vessel once was stolen.

Comments are closed.


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