Staff Reports
Last Call — A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.
First Shot
Republican supermajorities in the state Legislature are probably here to stay, according to the political experts at the Florida Chamber of Commerce.
While Democrats only need to flip a handful of seats in each chamber to break the GOP’s iron grip, pickup opportunities are few and far between and party resources are scant.
“The short answer is going to be it’s a tough path,” Florida Chamber Director of Data & Analytics Alex Coelho told attendees at the 2023 Future of Florida Forum.
Coelho said the January Special Election in House District 35, which went for Gov. Ron DeSantis last year and President Joe Biden in 2020, will serve as a good indicator of how the 2024 Elections could play out. But even if they win that seat, Democrats will need to roll a hard six in November.
“If you start going down the list, they have opportunities, but each of them kind of poses different challenges,” Coelho said.
“One of the things we’ve seen is Hispanic voters have shifted quite a bit Republican in recent years. And Democrats, in order to win back those seats, have to pull that back. They have to overcome the issues they’ve had with the Hispanic community. That’s going to be a challenge.”
Republicans will have an even easier time defending their Senate supermajority since only half of the 40 seats in that chamber are on the ballot next year and the ones that are generally favor the GOP. The party’s significant resource advantage may even afford them a pickup.
In 2024, Senate District 3 is the only truly competitive seat on the ballot. The North Florida district anchored in Leon County went narrowly for Republican Sen. Corey Simon last cycle despite Democrats holding the advantage on paper. This cycle, however, Democrats are having trouble recruiting a solid candidate to challenge the now-incumbent lawmaker.
“The problem for Democrats if you’re trying to get to 14 is every other seat you see there in red — the seats that are on the ballot in 2024 — DeSantis won by at least 25 points in 2022, so there just really is not a realistic target No. 2,” Coelho said. “When 2026 comes around it’s a different conversation, but for now, Democrats are kind of stuck where they are in the Florida Senate.”
Republicans are also benefiting from a statewide surge in voter registrations. Data presented by the Chamber at the Future of Florida Forum shows that the GOP now holds a more than 625,000-voter advantage over Democrats.
“That’s a big flip right there if you look over the last two years,” said Florida Chamber EVP of Government & Political Relations Frank Walker. “And then if you back it up all the way — not the last couple of years prior, but the decades or the century prior to that — It was all in the blue column. It’s a tidal shift.”
Last month alone, 18,000 Republicans were added to the voter rolls, compared to 10,000 Democrats. Part of the growing gap is the precipitous jump in no-party voter registrations. Florida Politics’ review of post-pandemic voter registrations, based on L2 data, shows new state residents are playing an outsized role in the GOP shift.
Evening Reads
—“Ron DeSantis finances raise fresh scrutiny ahead of Iowa caucus” via Caroline Vakil of The Hill
—“DeSantis, struggling to catch Donald Trump, flexes executive power amid conflict in Mideast” via Max Greenwood of the Miami Herald
—“DeSantis will set out foreign policy agenda in Washington speech” via Hadriana Lowenkron of Bloomberg
—“Florida Jewish Republican tears into DeSantis, endorses Trump” via Gary Fineout of POLITICO
—“DeSantis campaign launches ‘Trump accident tracker’” via Brett Samuels of The Hill
—“DeSantis says he would do better than Trump against RFK Jr.” via Julia Johnson of the Washington Examiner
—“President Trump freed drug offenders. Candidate Trump wants to kill them.” via Jacob Sullum of Reason
—“FAU’s next President will be well paid even if experience is lacking” via the Palm Beach Post editorial board
—“Randy Fine’s failed attempt to add drag queens to Florida’s ‘bestiality’ statute” via Scott Maxwell of the Orlando Sentinel
—“No amount of censorship is ever enough for DeSantis. Look what he’s up to now” via Fabiola Santiago of the Miami Herald
—“Britney finally tells her story. It’s dark.” via Spencer Kornhaber of The Atlantic
Quote of the Day
“The daily hits on DeSanctus will continue because we won’t ever stop. The ‘end’ will be an everlasting experience DeSanctus will have to endure until he gets it through his thick skull that he has no shot to be the nominee, let alone the President.”
— The Donald Trump campaign wrapping up its ‘Kiss of Death’ countdown for Ron DeSantis.
Put It on the Tab
Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.
Gov. Ron DeSantis says he can snap up would-be RFK Jr. voters. We might agree with him after a few Kennedys.
U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds may have bowed out of the House Speaker race, but he’s still a rising star … is it too soon to order him a Governor Martini?
If U.S. Rep. Tom Emmer wants to be Speaker, he’d be wise to drink nothing but Cuba Libres from here on out. Otherwise, Florida’s Cuban American community could nuke his bid.
Assuming the age of double-digit premium hikes is really winding down, snag Commissioner Michael Yaworsky an End of an Era. If not … well, how about a tap water, no ice?
Breakthrough Insights
Tune In
7 p.m. — Carolina Hurricanes @ Tampa Bay Lightning
7:45 p.m. — San Jose Sharks @ Florida Panthers
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Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.
