Polling shows Randy Fine vulnerable to defeat in SD 19 race

New polling shows Rep. Randy Fine may not have a clear path to an open Senate seat.

Cygnal released polling that showed Fine with weak favorability ratings in Senate District 19. The survey results also show 65% voters in the northern end of the district, those outside Fine’s current House District 33 jurisdiction, have never heard of Fine or have no opinion at all on his records.

Moreover, pollsters said they tested how Fine would perform with likely Republican Primary voters against three other potential candidates. But after “basic messaging,” the poll shows Fine losing to every potential candidate in a head-to-head race.

“Basic messaging around Fine’s past ethics issues, voting for a pro-gun control bill, threatening to cut millions of (dollars) from Brevard Public Schools and Zoo, and cutting funding for the Central Florida Special Olympics absolutely tanks Fine’s support,” reads a polling memo.

Cygnal declined to share the names of the candidates tested against Fine. “The exercise was more about Fine than who an opponent might be,” pollster Brent Buchanan told Florida Politics.

Buchanan said the poll was conducted for a private client, but one not affiliated with any candidate or committee currently engaged in the Senate District 19 race.

The poll tested Fine against one candidate who outperformed him even before messaging. The initial polling found that candidate leading Fine 27% to 26%. But the informed polling saw the lead widen significantly, with the unnamed candidate receiving 50% to Fine’s 14%.

Fine led the other two candidates on the initial testing, besting one 30% to 19% and another 32% to 20%. But after hearing statements from pollsters, the poll found the former candidate beating Fine 51% to 14% and the latter besting him 47% to 15%.

Cygnal, a national pollster with an “A” rating from FiveThirtyEight, conducted the poll of 300 voters on Oct. 18 and 19. Pollsters report a margin of error of 5.65 percentage points.

That’s notably before a political feud erupted that has landed Fine in national headlines. The Palm Bay Republican on Oct. 24 withdrew an endorsement for Gov. Ron DeSantis in the Republican Presidential Primary and instead endorsed former President Donald Trump. That set off a bitter exchange between the state lawmaker and Florida’s top elected leader, mostly about the state’s response to antisemitism.

While that kerfuffle erupted after polling stopped, pollsters did test favorability for both DeSantis and Trump within the district.

Both are well-liked by likely Primary voters, though DeSantis more so. More than 61% of those surveyed have a very favorable view of Trump and almost 63% feel that strongly in favor of DeSantis. The Governor boasts more than a 62% positive net favorability overall, while Trump has about a 65% net favorability.

Meanwhile, only a little more than 13% of those surveyed had a very favorable view of Fine, barely more than the over 12% with a very unfavorable view. He had an overall favorability rating of just over 12%.

Fine currently faces only Robyn Hattaway in a Republican Primary to succeed Sen. Debbie Mayfield.

FL SD 19 Primary Memo v2 by Jacob Ogles on Scribd