Ron DeSantis overtakes Nikki Haley in 2024 GOP betting markets

desantis haley
A big endorsement brings big momentum for the Florida Governor's 2024 campaign.

In the wake of Ron DeSantis earning the endorsement of Iowa’s Governor in his presidential campaign, there appears to be new momentum for him with bettors.

According to the Election Betting Odds aggregation site, which considers the Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt and Polymarket platforms, the Florida Governor is now in second place among all investment options for GOP Primary campaigns.

DeSantis has a 9.1% chance of winning the nomination at this writing Tuesday morning, with a slender 0.2-percentage-point lead over former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley.

Former President Donald Trump is still the prohibitive favorite, with a 75.5% chance of becoming the Republican nominee in a third straight election cycle.

The race seems to have coalesced around Trump, DeSantis and Haley.

Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy has just a 2.1% chance of winning, and no other name on the Republican side even has a 1% shot.

Though DeSantis has nudged ahead of Haley in the race for second place among those investing or betting in presidential prediction markets, that momentum hasn’t translated to the General Election for gamblers.

DeSantis is still a long shot, accorded a 3.7% chance of winning the White House.

That puts him above notable names including Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (3.5%), former First Lady Michelle Obama (3.4%) and Vice President Kamala Harris (2.1%). But he trails four others in the General Election space.

Haley, with a 5.2% chance of winning, is the second strongest Republican in that space. Former President Trump, at 35.5%, leads the field overall.

Two Democrats, one of whom is not an active candidate, lead both DeSantis and Haley, meanwhile.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom continues to excite investors, and is accorded a 10.5% chance of winning.

President Joe Biden, who has faced speculation and suggestions that he shouldn’t run for re-election from various parts of the Democratic coalition, has a 30.5% chance of winning another four years at this writing.

A.G. Gancarski

A.G. Gancarski has written for FloridaPolitics.com since 2014. He is based in Northeast Florida. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter: @AGGancarski


4 comments

  • Earl Pitts "World-Wide Political Influncer" American

    November 7, 2023 at 8:39 am

    Good mornting America,
    Told ya so,
    Heres a Special Good Mornting to all of you non-belivers in the “Sage Wisdom of Earl”:
    “Get Thee Behind Me Non-Belivers”
    Thank you for finally coming around to my, Earl Pitts American’s, Truth, Justice, and The American Way.
    The polling, as predicted by Earl, is begining to reflect the truth.
    There is no way at this late stage of the ruination of our Great Nation that any Democrat can stop The Ron & Casey Train roaring “Full Steam” to The White House …. CHOOO CHOOO !!!!
    No not even if the DNC snatches Joe out at the last minute and parachutes Michelle in.
    So American Patriots it is really time now to relax your sphincters, pass the popcorn, and watch the Democrat $Hlt show play its-self out.
    And dont forget to be “The Smart One In The Room” and point your nose up to the ceiling and say: “Well Everyone Who Followed Earl Knew”.
    EPA

    • Rick Whitaker

      November 7, 2023 at 9:21 am

      CAUTION ⚠ TROLL COMMENT BY EARL SPHINCTER

  • University of North Florida

    November 7, 2023 at 10:58 am

    Probably will help him, Definitely will hurt her

    • Scott

      November 7, 2023 at 6:55 pm

      From your lips to God’s ears …

Comments are closed.


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