Internal poll shows Carmine Marceno in strong position for re-election

Lee County Sheriff Carmine Marceno at a Bonita Springs press conference. Image via Facebook.

An internal poll leaked to Florida Politics asserts Lee County Sheriff Carmine Marceno is more popular than any local official.

The poll suggests voters nearly universally know the Sheriff, who is nearing the end of his first full term, and like him. About 59% of likely General Election voters have a favorable view of Marceno, while just 15% have an unfavorable opinion.

Among Republicans, the poll found 74% view him favorably, with 53% saying very favorably, with just 8% see him unfavorably.

At the moment, Marceno remains the only candidate running for Sheriff in 2024. The poll finds even a significant number of Democrats ready to re-elect him. If the election between Marceno and a hypothetical General Election opponent were held today, the Sheriff would win re-election with 66% of the vote, the poll shows.

“includes 31% of Democrats saying they would vote for Sheriff Marceno – which is unprecedented in this polarized political environment,” wrote pollster Rob Schmidt in a McLaughlin & Associates polling memo.

There Schmidt suggested the Sheriff was more popular than former President Donald Trump, the frontrunner for the GOP presidential nomination, in the deep red county.

“In a hypothetical 2024 presidential re-match, Trump leads (President Joe) Biden 53% to 40%, meaning that Sheriff Marceno outperforms Trump by 13-points. Specifically, Marceno does 29-points better than Trump with Democrats, 28-points better with NPA women and 31-points better with moderates.”

Of course, that looks at a General Election matchup.

Marceno in 2020 won with about 67% of the vote to Democrat Robert Neeld’s 28%, with nonpartisan candidates Michael Qualls and Carmen McKinney each receiving under 3%. In a Republican Primary the same year, Marceno won 69% of the vote against GOP challenger James Leavens.

The Sheriff has increasingly been at odds with some local officials, wth concerns about the Sheriff’s budget partly prompting an audit request from several lawmakers led by state Rep. Rep. Mike Giallombardo.

A polling memo does not share numbers on any other elected officials but said he has a higher job approval rating, with 74% approving and just 14% disapproving, than anyone else holding office in the county.

It found 80% of Republicans would support Marceno on a Primary ballot, and 90% would stick with him in a General Election.

“Sheriff Carmine Marceno is in a league of his own as the most popular elected official in Lee County,” Schmidt wrote. “While Lee County is a Republican stronghold, Sheriff Marceno’s brand is bigger than politics as he has support across the entire political, ideological and generational spectrums. These are very encouraging and atypical numbers that undoubtedly validate the work Sheriff Marceno has done since 2018 and demonstrate a mandate for another four years.”