Poll: Donald Trump, Rick Scott on track for Florida wins
Image via Twitter.

trump scott edit
Both leads are outside the margin of error.

A new survey of 1,000 Sunshine State voters presents good news for a former President seeking a return to the White House and a Senator pursuing his second term.

Per the Emerson College poll conducted on April 9 and 10, both Donald Trump and Rick Scott appear poised to defeat their Democratic opponents.

Trump, who carried Florida in 2016 and 2020, has majority support against President Joe Biden.

“51% support Trump, 38% Biden, and 11% are undecided. With the candidate undecided voters lean toward allocated, Trump’s overall support increases to 56%, and Biden to 44%,” the polling memo notes.

A plurality of Biden voters (32%) back the current President because of opposition to Trump, as compared to 24% who are enthusiastic about the incumbent. An additional 19% are driven by a given issue, and 14% by party loyalty.

Meanwhile, among Trump voters, 31% are driven by issues, 28% by Trump enthusiasm, 16% by opposition to Biden, and 14% by party identification.

Trump’s lead suggests that Democratic efforts to expand the map in Florida may be for naught, and that’s potentially bad news for likely Senate nominee Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. She is running closer to Scott than Biden is to Trump, but is still behind, with her deficit outside the +/- 3-percentage-point margin of error.

Scott is backed by 45% of respondents, with his presumptive opponent at 38%, and 17% more say they are undecided.

Mucarsel-Powell and the Florida Democratic Party are betting heavily on spotlighting the issue of abortion against Scott. That’s made potent by the combination of a looming ban on termination of pregnancies after the sixth week of gestation except in cases of rape, incest, human trafficking and health peril for the mother, and an amendment that would roll back abortion restrictions signed by Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Whether that strategy ultimately narrows the margin remains to be seen, but Floridians will recall Scott’s squeaker win against U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson six years ago required a recount to be validated.

“The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party affiliation, and region based on 2024 registration modeling. Turnout modeling is based on U.S. Census parameters, and voter registration data (FL SOS),” Emerson says, explaining its methodology.

A.G. Gancarski

A.G. Gancarski has written for FloridaPolitics.com since 2014. He is based in Northeast Florida. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter: @AGGancarski


  • John L

    April 11, 2024 at 9:00 am

    Isnt one party rule great when you get the crook and the con man as automatic wins in state

  • ScienceBLVR

    April 11, 2024 at 9:31 am

    SOS! Save our state! Fire Scott!

  • MH/Duuuval

    April 11, 2024 at 9:54 am

    Neither Trump nor Scott looks like a winner with women who believe if they work, or are a primary child-care custodian, they should control their reproduction — not some fusty white guys who can afford nannies.

  • Al 305

    April 11, 2024 at 10:39 am

    Quite Easy victory!! Miami Dade County is no longer blue its 50/50 or leaning red. The dems have to run it up 70-30 in order to have a slight chance and thats not happening. Mrs. powell lives in my area and will not win there for sure . The dems are cooked in florida for many years to come!!

    • MH/Duuuval

      April 11, 2024 at 1:06 pm

      Don’t bet your inheritance, if you have one.

      Are there any old folks — like myself — who will vote for rich guys who want to cut Social Security or Medicare?

      Any women anywhere who want these two old farts determining their reproductive options?

      • Impeach Biden

        April 11, 2024 at 5:32 pm

        There it is, MH/Duuuval believes the oldest Democrat campaign tactic in the book. He’s chirping the Social Security and Medicaire BS like a cultist.

        • MH/Duuuval

          April 11, 2024 at 7:39 pm

          I prefer “Biden cultist” to Putin’s dupe.

          Scott and Trump both want to give more tax cuts to the wealthy and corporations, which will add to the deficit — and this always gets them salivating for cuts to social programs and entitlements.

          This has been the plan since RR was in charge.

          • Tom

            April 12, 2024 at 8:08 am

            Maybe if they stopped saying that’s what they were going to do, people would stop thinking it.
            “When someone shows you who they are, believe them the first time.” – Maya Angelou

  • KathrynA

    April 11, 2024 at 12:18 pm

    My, oh my-just the thought of those two again is nauseating–two corrupt old men that could care less for their constituents. I just love how Scott is suddenly appearing everywhere and barely see for 5 years and spouting the “socialist and communism” words to alarm the Cuban population and yet, so many of the Republicans are supporting Putin and the terrible things he does continually. The Democrats or (95%) of them are not socialists. Making untruths become “truth” for political gain is so tiresome. I don’t even know anyone who ever says they like Scott and can’t imagine how he gets elected–I guess people who do straight line voting.??

  • DeeDee

    April 11, 2024 at 5:06 pm

    Looks like the aggrieved Democrat letter writer’s club is out in full force today. Neither candidate is out to reduce Social Security, but hey, why not scare the elderly?

    • MH/Duuuval

      April 11, 2024 at 5:25 pm

      And you are the queen (of denial) for the day.

      This is the standard ploy: Cut taxes for the wealthy and big business at every opportunity and, to make up for the lost revenues, trim social services and entitlements.

      • Impeach Biden

        April 12, 2024 at 9:30 am

        You read all of that on Fakebook and AARP?

        • rick whitaker

          April 16, 2024 at 5:07 pm

          peachy, no, everyone already knows this. it is common knowledge. you are a person that either does not know these facts, or you are greedy and don’t care about anybody but yourself. which one is it?

    • Impeach Biden

      April 11, 2024 at 5:34 pm

      That has been their talking point for years and years and years. MH/Duuuval takes it hook line and sinker.

      • MH/Duuuval

        April 11, 2024 at 8:05 pm

        I am part of the senior citizen cohort and this cohort overwhelmingly intends to defend Social Security and Medicare plus many existing social programs, such as Medicaid, SNAP, WIC, etc. We vote!

        As of 2024, 800 or so billionaires in the US control more of the nation’s wealth than the bottom 50 percent. For you, Peachy, that represents a victory of the “fittest”, but our economy depends on widespread consumption — 2/3 of the economy is consumer spending. Plutocrats can’t spend it fast enough and moreover waste much of it in corrupt schemes to expand their power and prestige.

        Trickle-down and supply-side measures don’t work to the benefit of the majority. Like Pitts on his diet of unhealthy food, the economy seizes up — the last time in 2008..

        A concentration of wealth also is a prelude to autocratic government and, when combined with attempts to force everyone to think and act alike, jeopardizes democratic republicanism.

        You got nothing, Peachy, except ad hominem, invidious racial stereotyping, and boorishness of monumental proportion.

        • Impeach Biden

          April 12, 2024 at 8:51 am

          No one is coming after your social security or Medicare. You can breathe easy from your condo at Century Village.

          • rick whitaker

            April 15, 2024 at 4:42 pm

            IM, you are a disrespecting brat. i would love to see you face to face.

        • Impeach Biden

          April 12, 2024 at 9:22 am

          By the way it looks like there are 24 new billionaires in Kalifornia. Go after those fellow libs. The state can’t find that money that was earmarked for the homeless. If only I could manage my finances like the Demos.

          • MH/Duuuval

            April 12, 2024 at 10:01 am

            MAGAs pile lies upon lies — read my lips — but this won’t alter their record of selective amnesia.

            As for billionaires, anywhere in the country, they ain’t paying their fair share.

      • rick whitaker

        April 16, 2024 at 5:19 pm

        peachy, what you call talking points in this case are facts. the lies the maga gop is pushing and you are swallowing without chewing, are what you call facts. can you not see how that would confuse you and not make you able to tell lies from facts. like i’ve told you before, you may be too far gone to help. if lies make you feel good, then it looks like you’re doomed to be in a lying world

  • MH/Duuuval

    April 12, 2024 at 7:54 pm

    Pfizer, one of the most profitable pharmaceutical companies in the world, is set to pay nothing in federal income taxes in 2023/4.

    Corporations like Pfizer are using legal loopholes and Trump-era tax cuts to pay astonishingly low tax rates.

    The Pfizer tax breaks are likely to be bipartisan, but the tax cut is all MAGA.

  • Ocean Joe

    April 13, 2024 at 12:04 pm

    Scott running commercials about communism while he supports Trump who loves the Russians who kept Castro in power for decades.

    • MH/Duuuval

      April 13, 2024 at 4:02 pm

      Not so strange bedfellows — they prefer the bullet and billy club to the ballot unless they can rig the election.

  • Andy

    April 15, 2024 at 7:06 am

    Abortion and weed are not going to win the day for democrats in Florida… people can chew gum and walk as well as vote for weed and pro choice initiatives and still check the other boxes that have trump and Scott next to it..
    Dems have fell behind in Florida, republicans are destroying them on voter registration.. this will not be fixed for a long time!!!

Comments are closed.


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