Drew Dixon
A Florida TaxWatch report projects that the number of people moving to Florida will begin to slow running through the year 2028.
The government watchdog group is beginning a new economic outlook forecast for the state. In the initial report in what will be regular quarterly forecasts, Florida TaxWatch said the state’s population will continue to increase. But the pace of that increase will begin to ease up.
The increase in population between 2023 through 2028 is expected to increase by about 1.45 million people, TaxWatch predicts. That would mean the current population of 22.7 million will increase to about 24.1 million in 2028.
But the rush to move to Florida by residents of other states will begin to cool a bit. In 2023, there were an estimated 884 people moving to the Sunshine State every day. But that figure will likely fall to 820 people migrating to Florida on a daily basis. Many people are also beginning to leave Florida to move to other states, which accounts for a net migration decrease, the TaxWatch report said.
The TaxWatch analysis said Florida’s lack of an income tax and warm climate has long fueled the increasing number of people moving to the state. But in recent years, higher costs of living — most notably, increasing housing costs — will lead to the slowdown of net migration. Other factors are also driving up costs to live in Florida.
“Recently, an increasing number of Floridians are leaving the state, often citing increased costs of living, rising property taxes, rising property and insurance costs, rising housing costs, worsening traffic, and more frequent and severe weather events,” the report said.
Despite the slowdown in migration to Florida, gross domestic product (GDP) and employment will still be on the upswing in the state. But the economic picture will start to back off its current rapid acceleration.
The GDP for Florida had a muscular 4.6% growth rate in 2023. The TaxWatch economic forecast projects that will soon start to fall off. As early as 2025, that GDP growth rate will slow to about 1.6% and may see a bit of rebound to 1.9% by 2027 heading into 2028.
Ultimately, Florida TaxWatch CEO Dominic Calabro cautioned that Floridians shouldn’t be complacent about any perceived guarantee of accelerated economic growth that outpaces other areas of the U.S.
“Currently, Florida’s economic growth continues to outpace other states across the nation, and we also boast the 14th largest economy in the world. This formidable status can certainly be attributed, in no small part, to our state leaders’ conservative fiscal policies and strategic response to the COVID-19 pandemic. But the question remains: Is it sustainable over the next several years?” Calabro said.
The employment picture will reflect the same pace, with a continued solid jobs picture but noticeably slower growth and rising unemployment rates. The TaxWatch analysis projects the number of people in the Sunshine State workforce will jump from 9.8 million in 2023 to 10.4 million in 2028.
The unemployment picture will reflect the slowdown in jobs growth, with the 2.8% jobless figure in 2023 rising to 4.3% in 2026. TaxWatch analysts project that the unemployment rate will likely stabilize from there, settling in at about 4.2% in 2028.
That unemployment rate projection reflects the real-time monthly jobless figures in Florida. The Department of Economic Opportunity recently released the total unemployment rate for April. The jobless figure ticked up to 3.3% across the state, a slight increase from the March figure of 3.2% which was also a 0.1-point increase from the previous month.
Still, the TaxWatch forecast projects the number of new jobs created in Florida will slow significantly from the 2023 figure of 323,000 to 130,300 new jobs in 2028. The one area that could fluctuate more than others in the jobs figures is income growth. The 2023 figure of 5% income increase could rise to a peak of 6.2% in 2025 and then fall to 4.8% in 2028.
7 comments
LexT
June 10, 2024 at 8:31 am
I do not see that Florida will slow down. The rest of the US is on fire. What I do foresee is the entire US economy going into recession after the election as the Democrat/Swamp have tried to prop up the economy through the election to give Biden a chance to win. You cannot keep a President or an economy on life support forever. We are bound to have a correction and feel the pain for the money printed since COVID.
JD
June 10, 2024 at 9:09 am
If that’s true, and enough people agree with you to install a GOP candidate, then that will be that candidate’s legacy – the massive correction.
And if Trump is that candidate, and if his track record with COVID19 is an indicator of how he would handle it, it would be disaster. And then the GOP will be blamed.
rick whitaker
June 10, 2024 at 3:16 pm
LEXT, you couldn’t be more wrong. you can tell easily that you are an orange turd lover. biden is doing a great job. you are just too eat up with maga cult to know what’s going on. i don’t pitty you, i just wish haters and fearmongers like you would get out of the dems way so we can keep making things better and fix the things trump and desantis tore up.
Elvis Pitts "The Big Voice On The Right" American
June 10, 2024 at 8:58 am
Good Mornting Sage Patriots and Dook 4 Brains Leftys,
Under normal conditions it would be very difficult for Florida TaxWatch to conduct an accurate forcast without knowing if the Sage Donald “The Donald” Trump will win and Restore The Economey ….. or if the Dook 4 Brains Lefty 08IDEN Sad-Ministration will steal the election and complete their task of flushing what remains of our Beleaugered Economey Down The Crapper.
So when Florida Tax Watch called ME, Elvis Pitts American, for Sage Advice on how to proceed with their Economic Forcast I advised that Trump is 100% going to win and to prepare their forcast based on The Sage Donald “The Donald” Trump being Large & In Charge of oir Great Nation beginning Jan. 06, 2025 thru Jan. 06 2030.
They thanked ME, Elvis Pitts “Economic Professor Emeritas” American and proceeded to conduct their Economic Forcast.
I am available to dispense Economic and Political advice to anyone in Our Great Nation free of charge. I do it as a public service to the good people of The USA.
Elvis Pitts American
rick whitaker
June 10, 2024 at 3:23 pm
EARL PITTS, you sound so foolish and befuddled. much more than usual. your 83rd birthday is coming up next month so you could be having issues. your recent mumblings are more discombobulated than usual. i hope that you soon will give it up and disappear back into the woodwork with the termites and roaches.
JD
June 10, 2024 at 5:19 pm
Hey Shitts, you’ve seen the jobs report from last month, right? Seems like the economy is roaring along.
You still got nothing.
Major retailors screwed everybody by raising prices under the guise of “inflation” and the GOP poltiico’s used it for mud slinging fodder (anyone else remember when politicians didn’t mudsling? Heck – now they shitt sling).
And now that people are like “no thanks” on those same major retailers are 1.) automating (last time you saw a Home Depot cashier or a Walmart greeter), 2.) ROLLING BACK the prices because people had enough.
You still got nothing Shitts, but lies and people that cannot critically think. It’s a cult, and you are brainedwashed (or getitng paid) or both. So which is it? You drinking the Jim Jones Koolaid / HailBop pudding or just grifting off American democracy?
rick whitaker
June 10, 2024 at 3:11 pm
can taxwatch be believed as being a non-partisan, independent, and non-profit in practice, or just by title? i don’t imagine that desantis and the florida gop would allow that to happen. i am not in any way an expert on this issue, but i predict that the growth will be far less than the taxwatch report touts. the accumulated affect of the desantis gang on the state has not been felt or predicted yet. i’m just glad that i moved out of florida before the desantis gang took over.