Staff Reports
Last Call — A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.
First Shot
Former President Donald Trump’s betting odds of winning the election have surged after a shooting at his rally on Saturday, according to SportsHandle.
SportsHandle’s election odds tracker lists Trump as having the highest odds of winning the election at 74%, a 7% increase from last week’s 67% odds. Meanwhile, President Joe Biden trails behind Trump at 18%. His odds increased by three percentage points from last week, but overall, they drop from the 37% odds he had just before his first debate with Trump. Vice President Kamala Harris is in third place with 10% odds.
These updated odds come just after an assassination attempt on Trump at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, that left one attendee dead, two other people injured and Trump with an injury on his ear. Biden responded with an address denouncing the shooting and wishing for Trump’s safety.
Shortly after the shooting, a GoFundMe page made by a Florida citizen in support of Trump has raised up to $4.2 million, including donations from U.S. Sen. Rick Scott and former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, displaying a hefty support for Trump following the incident.
SportsHandle’s tracker also tracked the odds for Trump’s running mate, who was announced Monday as U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance. The tracker accurately predicted the choice this week, with Vance holding nearly 46% odds and North Dakota Gov. Doug Bergum trailing with 41% odds.
Every Thursday, SportsHandle’s election odds tracker updates its odds on who will likely be elected President. It gathers and automates data from various betting providers and visualizes its data and analysis with charts and graphics on its website.
Despite the recent assassination attempt, Trump will still appear as scheduled at the upcoming Republican National Convention, which will take place today through Thursday in Milwaukee.
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U.S. Sen. Scott’s re-election campaign is pouring $400,000 into TV ads that will air during the Republican National Convention.
Titled “Grandpa” and “Cowboy Up,” the ads will run in every Florida market. The campaign said, “They will remind Floridians of Sen. Scott’s support for IVF and how he is working to change the status quo in Washington.”
“Grandpa” will be familiar to Sunshine State TV watchers. It features footage of Scott and his wife, Ann, spending time with their grandchildren while the Republican Senator explains his support for in vitro fertilization.
The second ad invokes former President Ronald Reagan, whom Scott believes would be dissatisfied with the country’s current state.
“Crime is rampant and goes unpunished. Our border is open. Our debt is $32 trillion and climbing. Inflation is growing faster than our wages. There’s a land war in Europe. We pulled out of Afghanistan like a bunch of cowards. We don’t know what a woman is. We pay people not to work,” Scott says.
He concludes: “The game is now rigged against hardworking Americans. We are losing our country. It’s time to cowboy up and fight like hell to turn this country around.”
Evening Reads
—“Judge dismisses Donald Trump’s classified documents case, finds Jack Smith’s appointment ‘unlawful’” via Hannah Philips of the Palm Beach Post
—“Trump taps J.D. Vance to be his running mate” via Kimberly Leonard of POLITICO Magazine
—“From skeptic to superfan: Vance’s turnaround on Trump” via Simon J. Levien of The New York Times
—“Trump once unified Democrats and divided Republicans. the shooting and debate turned the tables.” Via Jonathan Martin of POLITICO Magazine
—“How not to respond to a political assassination attempt” via Judd Legum of Popular Information
—“A divisive symbol behind Trump’s attempted assassination: The AR-15” via Zusha Elinson and Cameron McWhirter of The Wall Street Journal
—“Florida Republicans rally in Milwaukee, days after assassination attempt on Trump” via Louis Jacobson of the Tampa Bay Times
—“Ron DeSantis to meet with Iowa Republicans, a nod to 2028 ambitions” via Jennifer Jacobs, Stephanie Lai and Hadriana Lowenkron of Bloomberg
—“PAC working to enshrine abortion rights into Florida Constitution raises over $38.7 million” via Creative Loafing Tampa Bay
—“Rebuilding coastal communities after hurricanes is complex, and can change the character of a place” via Dorany Pineda of The Associated Press
Quote of the Day
“Everyone agrees litigation is coming, right? It’s like Game of Thrones. Winter is coming.”
— Chris Spencer, during the Financial Impact Estimating Conference on Amendment 4.
Put It on the Tab
Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.
Trump didn’t pluck U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio as his running mate. Help him drown his sorrows with a Second Rummer Up.
Order a Money Maker for U.S. Sen. Rick Scott, who posted a hefty $3 million-plus finance report for the second quarter.
U.S. Rep. Michael Waltz and Sen. Joe Gruters get a glass of Main Stage vodka for their prime slots at the RNC.
Breakthrough Insights
Tune In
Back, back, back. Home run derby returns tonight
Before tomorrow’s Major League Baseball All-Star game, tonight features the Home Run Derby (8 p.m. ET, ESPN).
While no players from the Marlins or Rays will participate, there’s a Florida connection. Former Gator Pete Alonso will try to make some history. The Mets’ slugger has won the Derby twice and will try to match Ken Griffey Jr. as the only players to win the event three times. Alonso won the derby in 2019 and 2021. There was no event in 2020 due to the pandemic.
Alonso has hit 19 home runs this season, tied for fifth-most in the National League.
Among the other sluggers entered in this year’s field are Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers, who leads the National League in home runs with 29 and
Baltimore’s Gunnar Henderson and the Atlanta Braves’ Marcel Ozuna, who are third and fourth in the Majors in home runs, are also in the field. Major League home run leader Aaron Judge is not participating in the Home Run Derby.
The derby was added to the regular schedule for the All-Star break in 1985 but was not televised until 1993 at Camden Yards in Baltimore. Rangers’ slugger Juan Gonzalez won the event that season.
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Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.
