Associated Press
Carolyn Valone was not going to cast a presidential vote in November.
The 84-year-old Democrat from St. Louis said she “just cannot forgive Joe Biden for Gaza” and his continued support for the Israeli counteroffensive against Hamas.
Matteo Saracco and Cooper Brock, two 25-year-old traffic planners in Atlanta, were prepared to vote for Biden over Republican Donald Trump. But neither was thrilled with the idea of a rematch of the 2020 election between two men who were then already a combined 150 years old.
“I was kind of hoping something would change,” Saracco said of watching Biden, now 81, age over his three-plus years in office.
And then it did.
“It’s a fresh choice now,” said Valone, explaining her willingness to give Vice President Kamala Harris, now the likely Democratic nominee, a chance after Biden ended his re-election bid.
Valone, Saracco and Brock reflect on what had come to define the 2024 presidential campaign: The wide swath of voters who were disillusioned or dissatisfied with having to choose between the same two men who waged a bitter national fight four years ago.
Now, those voters, especially those who lean left, are expressing a renewed interest in the campaign and are eager to see Harris take on the Democratic Party mantle instead of Biden.
“I don’t know enough about her yet, but I look forward to learning more,” Brock said. “And it’s certainly exciting to think about a woman and a woman of color” being in a position to win.
For months, Biden’s campaign had placed an all-in bet that voters frustrated with or in denial about their options this fall would come around to his candidacy because of their shared fear of Trump. It was a risky proposition, evidenced by the swift collapse of Biden’s candidacy after the June 27 debate.
With Harris in the driver’s seat, the same team that had prepared for a campaign of attrition is going on offense, seeing an “expanded universe of winnable voters,” as campaign Chair Jen O’Malley Dillion wrote in a recent memo.
Where Biden and Trump were universally known and widely disliked, voters know less about the vice president.
The campaign and its Democratic allies plan to reintroduce Harris to the American people in the run-up to the Democratic National Convention next month. They are looking to excite voters about their new choice.
The Democrats’ fresh start does not eliminate the presence of “double haters” – voters with negative impressions of both candidates. But it resets the race and gives Harris an opening to introduce herself to a range of voters, especially those who still hold strong reservations about Trump.
There are a range of emotions and opinions among disenchanted voters: While true double haters might have had genuinely unfavorable opinions about both candidates, others might have had a clear ideological lean toward one or the other, but a single stumbling block.
For Saracco, it was Biden’s age, a concern validated by his debate performance.
“President Biden has done an admirable job. I’ve been pleased with his administration,” he said. “But the debate was the breaking point.”
Americans’ unhappiness with the possibility of a Biden-Trump rematch has been evident for some time. Only one year into Biden’s presidency, an Associated Press-NORC poll found that 7 in 10 Americans, including about half of Democrats, did not want him to run for re-election. The same survey, conducted in January 2022, also found that about 7 in 10 Americans did not want Trump to run for president again.
By this point, broad dissatisfaction with Biden’s performance as president had started to set in. According to the January 2022 poll, only about 4 in 10 Americans approved of the way he was handling his job, a drop of nearly 20 percentage points from the year before.
Biden’s honeymoon glow was not completely gone – about half of Americans had a favorable opinion of him – but his favorability rating continued to fall over the following months.
By the end of 2023, when it became clear that a Biden-Trump rematch was a very real possibility, more than half of Americans said they would be somewhat or very dissatisfied if Biden or Trump were nominated.
However, as the Primaries wrapped up, Trump retained the enthusiasm of many Republicans, while Biden lost ground with his own party’s base. A July AP-NORC poll conducted just before Biden withdrew from the race found that while about 6 in 10 Republicans were satisfied with Trump as the nominee, only 4 in 10 Democrats said the same about Biden. Nearly two-thirds of Democrats in that poll said Biden should drop out.
Even left-leaning voters interviewed by the AP echoed broader frustrations over a two-party system that was poised to deliver a rematch.
“The United States has a jillion people, and for the candidates to be a former president and another president the ages that they are?” Valone asked in an incredulous tone. “I know why Republicans nominated Trump because they’ve just handed their party over to him. But how could Democrats not see this coming, not see this was going to be an election that people just could not get excited about.”
It’s unclear whether the new dynamic is permanent, but recent polls suggest the events of the past two weeks may have at least temporarily blunted the dynamics of the Biden-Trump rematch. Polls from CNN, The New York Times and Siena College show that at least slightly fewer voters now hold an unfavorable view of both candidates.
That’s driven chiefly by both polls showing that fewer have an unfavorable opinion of Harris than said the same of Biden, though both polls also suggest a slight uptick in the percentage, saying they have a favorable view of Trump.
Republicans believe they can blunt any shift in public opinion with a barrage of advertising defining Harris as an extension of Biden’s record, especially on consumer prices and immigration, while also damaging her personal brand. Harris and her allies have an opportunity for a counteroffensive.
“This race is more fluid now – the Vice President is well-known but less well-known than Trump and President Biden, particularly among Dem-leaning constituencies,” O’Malley Dillon wrote.
Republican pollster Neil Newhouse, a lead consultant for Republican Mitt Romney’s 2012 presidential campaign, said: “Double haters will still be in play in November.” But, he added, “There’s no question that voters know President Trump much better than Vice President Harris,” meaning unfavorable opinions about her may not be as calcified.
GOP pollster Whit Ayres said true independent “double haters” could still go either way, depending on the campaigns’ messages.
“If Trump goes down the DEI road of some of the far right-wingers, he’ll drive women into her arms,” Ayres said, referring to diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives. “If he concentrates on her far-left San Francisco issue positions, he’ll drive them back to the double-hater category.”
Kathryn Kabat, a 69-year-old North Carolina voter who described herself as a Democratic-leaning independent, has already made her choice. The retired Air Force captain said she had planned to vote for Biden and mostly held to that intention even after his debate performance.
“I was sad for him, and I was worried he was going to lose and we would have another Trump term that we simply cannot afford,” she said.
Now, she’s not only a certain Harris voter but a volunteer.
“I’m sending postcards from home, and I’ll do whatever else I can,” she said. “So maybe I can add a few votes.”
___
Republished with permission of The Associated Press.
16 comments
Elmo
July 28, 2024 at 1:26 pm
I will drop this page faster than a hot potato if pop up adds keep popping up.
Ben Dover
July 28, 2024 at 4:27 pm
My observation indicates that the Democrats are on the way out the back door of the white house, senate, and house.
I see Democrats playing 2nd fiddle for many years to come.
Ben
Ben Dover
July 28, 2024 at 5:16 pm
Florida Politics is in a unique position to document the crash and burn of the Democratic Party in the USA.
Buckel up people as this election will be studied by Historians for 400 years.
This is a seminal moment in world history. Ben
cassandra was right
July 28, 2024 at 6:01 pm
TRUMP: And again, Christians, get out and vote, just this time. You won’t have to do it anymore, four more years, you know what, it’ll be fixed, it’ll be fine. You won’t have to vote anymore, my beautiful Christians.
Trump’s Project 2025 plan to end voting in the United States.
Paul
July 28, 2024 at 6:54 pm
I see Florida actually in play for the Democrats. With two amendments and a Presidential candidate that actually excites left-leaning voters, we shall see. Then of course who knows what shenanigans Cord Byrd may play if Trump loses Florida.
Ninety Three
July 28, 2024 at 9:17 pm
Ka Mana. The first to drop out of the Demo
Presidential primary in 2019 because no one liked her. Then Joe saves her political career because he said he was going to pick a person of color as his VP and preferably a female. Come on down Ka Mana. Here’s your chance. Joe assigns her to the Southern Border and she fails miserably. 92% of her staff has quit on her. The zombie force is all in on Ka Mana as the Demo Party and the zombie media attempt to remake her. She has lots of skeletons in the closet. Question is can the Demo run media hide, erase, and eliminate all of that. The Passage of Time.
Tom
July 29, 2024 at 7:18 am
Curiosity got the better of me so I looked it up. What is this failure you keep alluding to?
“In March 2021, Harris was tasked by Mr. Biden with leading his administration’s effort to reduce poverty, violence and corruption in Central America through diplomacy and investment in the region. She has not overseen the administration’s border policy.”
Michael K
July 29, 2024 at 8:34 am
Indeed. It’s an oft-repeated lie – and they forget that Trump told House Republicans to vote against the very border legislation that contained everything they wanted. Why? Because “immigration” is all he has to run on. He does not want a solution, only a “problem” to rally the base.
And by the way, the Trump administration’s extremely harsh sanctions against Venezuela forced millions of desperate people to flee the country from political persecution and total economic ruin.
Ninety Three
July 29, 2024 at 8:39 am
Spin baby spin. The re are clips out there where she was interviewed on border policy. Not one single time did she ever say she was not tasked to fix the border crisis. Suddenly now everyone wants to forget about that. The Joe Bidencover up Part Deaux is underway.
Ninety Three
July 29, 2024 at 9:05 am
And then there is the Demo Spinner Czar Michael K. The border is the only thing Trump can run on. Really? Oh there is plenty that Trump can run on.
1. Southern Border chaos
2. Fuel prices
3. Inflation
4. Foreign Policy
5. Crime
6. Reimagining ICE and the police.
Just for starters. You have abortion. That’s it.
Michael K
July 28, 2024 at 6:56 pm
Trump is the angry, bitter, old man in the race, who refused to accept his electoral defeat in 2020 – losing every single frivolous lawsuit. he’s the only president in history to refuse to participate in the peaceful transfer of power. Since 2016, we’ve learned that he will say any outrageous, hateful thing to get attention, make promises he cannot keep (healthcare? Infrastructure?), coddle dictators, and of course, always favor the billionaires at the expense of the “uneducated” as he calls them.
There’s a new presidential candidate in town, and she knows how to handle convicted felons, con men, and frauds like Trump.
The Republican party — in 2024 – had to instruct its Congressional members not to make racist and misogynistic comments about the vice President of the United States. That tells you everything you need to know about the party of Trump.
cassandra was right
July 29, 2024 at 11:48 am
Ninety Three:
Trump can’t even run on the border. He intentionally sabotaged the bipartisan border act.
But nice attempt to overwhelm everyone with your usual “Gish Gallop” of BS and lies.
Ninety Three
July 29, 2024 at 1:24 pm
Your gang of misfits (Democrats) had both houses and the presidency and did nothing for Joe’s first two years except allow millions to enter this country illegally. Now you, the phony news and such are spinning this issue which is a biggie for tax paying Americans. It’s not going to work. Better start buying more votes like free college, medical care, free cars, phones, houses, etc.
cassandra was right
July 29, 2024 at 2:45 pm
Kamala Harris was never in charge of the border. Border crossings are lower today than when Trump left office. Trump admits to intentionally sabotaging the bipartisan border security legislation—so that he could campaign on illegal immigration. Now he can’t even run on that. He can only run on Project 2025. It’s all he’s got. Why is he hiding it from voters?
Project 2025 is Christian Nationalism.
Ninety Three
July 29, 2024 at 6:24 pm
First of all Project 2025 is not on the Republican platform. Contrary to what
Joy Behar and Whoopi would tell you, this is false. There is plenty of tape out there with Kammy acknowledging she in fact was tasked with looking into solutions on the Southern debacle. One of them was reimagining ICE. She ran away from that responsibility and you buy into the false narrative that she wasn’t responsible. I’m watching senile Biden right now in Austin. He is far, far gone mentally. Now Kammy and the media said he was fine. Sharp, focused, engaged. You believe that one too?
Kamala is Brat
July 29, 2024 at 5:47 pm
Donald Trump’s recent campaign rally in North Carolina video is on YouTube. Americans need to watch it and ask themselves:
“….is this the candidate I want my children to model?”
Comments are closed.