Jacob Ogles
An independent poll shows Bill Conerly leading in a Republican Primary to succeed former Rep. Tommy Gregory. But more than half of likely voters say they are undecided, and a quarter refuse to say they are even leaning a certain way.
A House District 72 poll by M3 Strategies found about 27% of Primary voters at least leaning toward Conerly, a shareholder with Kimley-Horn. Meanwhile, 20% favor marketing professional Alyssa Gay and 19% like Manatee County School Board member Rich Tatem. Lawyer Richard Green polls at 9%. A full 25% of voters refuse to list a preference even if they “had to choose today.”
Pollsters report a 4.55-percentage-point margin of error, showing a still-competitive race weeks out from the Aug. 20 Republican Primary. Survey results were collected on July 29 and 30. A total of 463 likely Primary voters were included in the poll, and pollsters only surveyed registered Republicans who previously voted in at least one Primary.
M3 Strategies partner Matthew Podgorski said his firm has no relationship to any campaign and polled the competitive race as it seeks to enter the Florida market. He said pollsters found many voters in House District 72 have not yet made up their mind.
“It’s a fairly low-information race even though a decent amount of money has been spent,” Podgorski told Florida Politics.
Without including leaners, Conerly still holds a lead, but a closer one, with 17% support to Gay’s 14%, Tatem’s 11% and Green’s 7%. But 51% of voters when presented with an “undecided” option listed themselves there.
Conerly boasts the strongest name recognition, though he and Tatem have a similar split between those who view the candidates positively versus negatively.
About 33% of voters have a somewhat or strongly favorable view of Conerly, compared to 19% who view him unfavorably. By comparison, 28% view Tatem favorably and 14% unfavorably.
Meanwhile, 31% view Gay positively, but only 9% have an unfavorable opinion of the candidate. That suggests she’s less well known than Conerly — 60% never heard of or have no opinion about Gay compared to 48% for Conerly — but arguably better liked by those who know her.
As for Green, about 19% have a favorable view but 8% view him unfavorably, but 74% have no opinion or have never heard of him.
The winner of the upcoming Republican Primary will face Democrat Lesa Miller in November. But the district leans heavily Republican — Gregory won re-election in 2022 with almost 67% of the vote and 66% of voters in the district voted for Gov. Ron DeSantis’ re-election the same day. That means the winner of the Primary will likely represent the district in the House next year.
The seat opened up unexpectedly this cycle after Gregory was hired as State College of Florida, Manatee-Sarasota’s new President.
Conerly through July 19 has raised almost $133,000 in his campaign account. Gay has raised less than $35,000. Tatem has collected more than $21,000 and thrown in a $36,000 candidate loan. Green has reported more than $22,000 in donations and chipped in a $2,800 loan.
