Peter Schorsch
Mike Haridopolos is well on his way to victory in the GOP Primary this month, if poll results obtained by Florida Politics are any indication.
An internal poll conducted for Haridopolos’ campaign for Florida’s 8th Congressional District shows Haridopolos leading the pack of GOP candidates with 56% support. Obviously, that’s enough for victory even in a head-to-head matchup. But considering it’s a three-person race, it’s a huge number.
Neither of Haridopolos’ challengers even broke double-digit support. Even their combined support came barely to double-digits, with John Hearton pulling 6% and Joseph Babits just 4%.
While that leaves a huge chunk of voters — 33% — still undecided, it’s still not enough to take Haridopolos down even if one candidate managed to pull all of the undecided voters. And the poll tested that anyway, finding that when pressed to choose from the three candidates, 59% of undecided voters picked Haridopolos.
His massive lead may be a result of name recognition. Only 6% of voters polled said they had never heard of Haridopolos, compared to 41% for Babits and 40% for Hearton. An overwhelming 67% of voters said they had heard of Haridopolos and had a favorable opinion of him, while only 12% said they knew who he was, but didn’t care for him much.
It also doesn’t hurt that Haridopolos has raised more than $1 million for his bid, and landed the coveted endorsement from former President Donald Trump.
And in case some voters are in the never Trump crowd, Haridopolos also earned endorsements from House Speaker Mike Johnson, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, GOP Whip Tom Emmer, Conference Chair Elise Stefanik and, perhaps most important to local voters, outgoing GOP incumbent U.S. Rep. Bill Posey. The NRA and dozens of local, state and federal leaders and organizations have also backed Haridopolos.
So while internal polls can often paint a skewed picture for outsiders, this one probably hits the nail on the head.
Haridopolos entered the race the strong favorite, he brought high name ID with him and grabbed support from Posey right off the bat.
Haridopolos entered the race in late April, a surprise entry into an unexpected contest prompted by Posey’s decision not to seek re-election.
Haridopolos, an Indian Harbour Beach Republican, served as Florida Senate President from 2010 to 2012. He has remained active in politics statewide and particularly on the Florida Atlantic Coast.
If the numbers hold, which is expected, Haridopolos will face one of two Democrats running for the seat — Sandy Kennedy or Dan McDow. But it’s expected to be an easy General Election, with 58% of the electorate in the 2020 election casting a ballot for Trump. And in 2022, Posey easily won re-election over Democrat JoAnne Terry. Posey didn’t face a Primary challenger that year but won 62% of the vote against GOP opponent Scott Caine in a GOP Primary in 2020.
The poll was taken by Spry Strategies July 23-26 among 532 likely Primary voters. It has a margin of error of 4.2 percentage points.
