1 million more: Growing Florida GOP tops Democratic voters in political milestone

Final Miami-Dade Commission vote on turning a Cutler Bay hotel into apartments for the unhoused scheduled for Tuesday

A sign advertises voter registration. (Peter Rimar via Wikimedia Commons)

Many left-leaning residents are starting to move out of Florida to the tune of 400,000 people per year.

On Sunday, the number of registered Republican voters in Florida officially surpassed Democrats by more than 1 million, a milestone reflecting political shifts in the Sunshine State and the largest margin for the GOP since the late 1980s.

The newest figures – based on up-to-date numbers from county election supervisors – showed 5.33 million active Republican voters, compared to 4.33 million Democrats – a difference of 1,000,024 voters early Sunday. That means Republicans make up nearly 39% of Florida’s voters, compared to about 32% for Democrats.

A significant number of voters in Florida, 3.92 million, or about 29%, are affiliated with no political party or the minor parties.

These are among the factors that drove Republican gains, or held back Democrats, according to interviews with experts and voters:

– Shifting political views across Florida, once considered a battleground swing state, where Republicans now control the governor’s office, both houses in the Legislature, both U.S. Senate offices and 18 of 30 congressional seats. This is notable among Hispanic voters, especially in South Florida, who have newly embraced conservative themes and championed the GOP’s descriptions of Democrats as socialists.

– A Republican-backed law, which took effect last year, cracking down on outside voter registration organizations, which historically enrolled Black, Hispanic and college-age voters. These are groups that traditionally skew Democratic. The law imposes expensive fines of up to $250,000 on groups that miss tight new deadlines or employ felons or non-citizens to help register voters. Most such third-party organizations have effectively shut down their operations in Florida.

– Florida is becoming a destination for conservatives moving from elsewhere in the United States. The state’s population has passed 23 million for the first time, adding roughly 600,000 people who moved to Florida every year for the past decade, according to the Florida Chamber of Commerce.

– Progressives, especially LGBTQ families, many moved out of Florida over GOP-backed laws and policies that made them uneasy, or residents who struggled with rising housing and insurance costs. About 450,000 each year move out of Florida, according to the chamber’s figures.

– Florida is a closed primary state, meaning a voter can’t cast a ballot in a Republican or Democratic primary unless the voter is registered in that party: Some voters change party affiliation strategically – which is allowed – to vote for or against candidates they otherwise couldn’t. The state’s Democrats canceled Florida’s presidential primary in March.

Gregory Wareham, 20, of Lake City, a finance senior at the University of Florida, switched earlier this year from the Democratic Party to the GOP because he said his values shifted after spending time in conservative circles.

“I decided to switch over because when I initially registered to vote out of high school, I held values that aligned more with the Democratic Party,” Wareham said.

Lonna Atkeson, a political scientist and director of the LeRoy Collins Institute at Florida State University, said Southern states like Florida were becoming more conservative.

“[People] don’t want to live in California anymore, or maybe they don’t want to live in Florida anymore, so those people who don’t want to live here are moving out,” Atkeson said. People moving into the state align themselves with more conservative views and people moving out tend to have more liberal views, Atkeson said.

Since the last presidential election — when Donald Trump won in Florida 51-48% four years ago — Republicans have become the dominant political party in eight more of the state’s 67 counties, such as Pinellas County, which includes the cities of St. Petersburg and Clearwater, and St. Lucie County along the state’s East Coast north of West Palm Beach.

That means Republicans now make up majorities in 57 of 67 counties.

The other GOP-flipped counties since 2020 are in the Panhandle and across northern Florida, which is now redder than ever: Calhoun, Franklin, Hamilton, Jefferson, Liberty and Madison counties.

“If you look at what the Democrats are trying to sell people, they are not interested in it,” Evan Power, the chairman of the Republican Party in Florida, said in an interview during the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee. “They’ve become radicalized, they move far to the left and people do not want to be a part of a radical left agenda.”

Democrats were the majority party among voters in 18 counties during the last presidential election but now only in 10. Even in those 10 counties, Republicans showed gains among voters in eight since January. Democrats since January lost voters in all but one of those same counties, tiny Gadsden County west of Tallahassee and the state’s only county with more Black than white residents.

Democrats still hold comfortable margins in some of Florida’s biggest, urban counties:

– Miami-Dade, home to the state’s largest block of nearly 1.5 million voters, where Democrats make up about 35% of voters and Republicans make up 31%.

– Broward, one of Florida’s bluest counties, where Democrats hold a commanding over 45% of more than 1.1 million voters compared to Republicans with 23%.

– Palm Beach, home to Trump, where Democrats make up over 37% of more than 866,000 voters and Republicans have 32%.

– Orange and neighboring Osceola, where Republicans make up only about 27% of more than 1 million voters, and Democrats make up 39%.

Republicans still trail but have narrowed margins to make it closer in two of Florida’s biggest counties: Hillsborough, which includes Tampa, and Duval, which includes Jacksonville. Republican incumbents Gov. Ron DeSantis and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio easily beat their Democratic challengers in both counties two years ago, although Trump lost there in 2020.

“Ron DeSantis and this extreme Republican Party have done everything possible to suppress voters, change voting laws, whether it is the complete wipeout of our vote by mail registrations, to making it more difficult for minority organizations to go out and do voter registration,” Nikki Fried, head of the Florida Democratic Party, said in an interview.

Fried said Democrats plan to mobilize the party by getting people interested and re-engaging inactive voters. She doesn’t think the number of registered Republican voters will translate to people going to the polls.

Kevin Wagner, a pollster and researcher at Florida Atlantic University, said party registration is a good predictor of voter turnout, but that doesn’t guarantee that voters will actually show up.

“It’s not necessarily clear what turnout is going to look like, so just because you have more registered voters doesn’t mean you’ll have more voters on Election Day,” Wagner said. “It’s important to not get so fixated on registration numbers and spend a little more time on turnout numbers because your vote is only important if you cast it.”

One example? Democrats in Miami-Dade voted in far fewer numbers in 2022 than Republicans there. What had been a Democratic stronghold along the state’s Gold Coast suddenly looked red – despite big margins for Democrats in voter registrations – as Republicans DeSantis and Rubio easily swept the vote there. DeSantis was the first GOP gubernatorial candidate to do that in Miami-Dade in 20 years.

Fresh Take Florida, a news service of the University of Florida College of Journalism and Communications, has been monitoring voter data from the state’s 67 county election offices for months to calculate exactly when Republicans would cross the 1 million advantage threshold. It happened Sunday, after trending toward the GOP for months.

The new figures include only registered voters defined as “active,” meaning someone who voted in the last two elections and whose address was verified.

Rhonda Sue Sammon, 70, a retiree from Grant-Valkaria along Florida’s Atlantic Coast, switched her party registration to Republican to vote against Trump in the presidential primaries. Her husband did the same. She plans to change her registration back to “no party affiliation” after November’s elections.

“We are not fans of Mr. Trump,” she said. “I’m currently dismayed that the GOP hasn’t done a better job of trying to groom other candidates, younger ones, ones that are more measured and balanced, more middle of the road. Trump is divisive, and he’s not the kind of leader that I think that America deserves.”

Nearly 200 miles away, on Florida’s other coast, Thomas Belcher, 88, of Sarasota and 40 other residents in a senior living development changed their party affiliation from Democrat to Republican.

The reason? The sister of Michael Flynn, the controversial national security adviser during Trump’s presidency, was running for a seat on the board that oversees the prestigious Sarasota Memorial Hospital. The move will allow them to vote on Aug. 20 against Mary Flynn O’Neill, who objected to how the hospital handled the pandemic.

The deadline to register for the November elections is Oct. 7.

___

Republished with permission of Fresh Take Florida.

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29 comments

Day 21
August 11, 2024 at 10:19 am

Keep Florida “RED”.
- Dr. Franklin Waters
  August 12, 2024 at 1:09 pm
  
  I think you mean to say “Keep voting against your own interests”?
  
  Unless you’re a multi-millionaire, there is no reason to ever vote for a Republican. But millionaires sure do spend a lot of money to convince gullible people to do exactly that.
  - Day 22
    August 12, 2024 at 3:02 pm
    
    I’ll bet money that you aren’t a medical doctor. 🤣
    - rick whitaker
      August 12, 2024 at 6:32 pm
      
      i would bet money that you are a howler monkey
David Pakman
August 11, 2024 at 11:43 am

Americans fleeing Florida’s fascist police state. Good job Republicans. Now you’re left with some of the dumbest people in human history to work for you and vote for you. You think they’ll make rational decisions?
- Day 21
  August 11, 2024 at 11:45 am
  
  Umm the state of Florida is gaining congressional representation while blue states lose them. How do you explain that one?
  - Michael K
    August 16, 2024 at 11:44 am
    
    Old people who don’t work like warm weather.
- Jules M
  August 12, 2024 at 1:09 pm
  
  One thing these numbers don’t reflect is those who register Republican in order to vote out people in the primaries. About half the registered Republicans I know do this and vote Democrat in the general
  - David Pakman
    August 12, 2024 at 1:20 pm
    
    Democrats aren’t all left leaning. The article states left leaning people which is really progressives and those who believe in social democracy. That’s what’s really “left.” Many Democrats aren’t even progressives or social dems. This state stinks of conservatism and religious fundamentalism. That and many people can’t move out of the lower classes if they tried so it’s a failure. Republicans won’t do anything about high prices accept blame everyone else while they clean up.
    - Jules M
      August 12, 2024 at 8:36 pm
      
      Florida’s trip to hard core red was largely paved by Susie Wiles, the daughter of sports announcer Pat Summerall. She injected fear, anger and hatred into the state, and those who were unhappy with the low wages that prevailed in this state were led to believe it was the Democrat’s fault. Republicans have now had over 20 years to bring middle class earnings up but have only succeeded in making Florida a great place to take advantage of their working class. And that’s just the tip of the iceberg.
      - David Pakman
        August 12, 2024 at 10:58 pm
        
        Yep. High housing costs and relatively low wages are a failure. “Pray about it” replaces accountability and quite frankly insight into the inequality that so many people who already have a pile of money benefit from. Now their stupid social policies just might make Florida one of the worst states to live in eventually. I don’t believe DeSantis hype. Low taxes only draw in the greedy and it’s not worth the bad political culture to live here. Also religious fundamentalism is deplorable irrational ideology.
Ron Ogden
August 11, 2024 at 11:59 am

Fact: Florida is Republican.
Opinion (or perhaps more accurately “excuse”): “. . .making it more difficult for minority organizations to go out and do voter registration,” Nikki Fried, head of the Florida Democratic Party, said in an interview.

Is there something about being a minority voter registration organization that you struggle to obey the laws, which apply to everyone? Why have these organizations packed up? Why, as Fresh Take reports, are progressives leaving Florida? Why has the daily newspaper that was the clarion of the Democratic establishment in Florida, the St. Pete Times, descended to cutting a large fraction of its payroll all while asking for donations for their now twice-a-week publication? The answer is the same in each case and shows the true nature of the American progressive, like a certain weak kneed Vice Presidential candidate I can name.
- Day 21
  August 11, 2024 at 12:07 pm
  
  The Ft Lauderdale Sun Sentinel is junk as well. Their editorial staff is highly partisan and they post polls that are so far off in their attempt to sway an election. It’s a
  fraction of its size and more and more people are cancelling including me.
  - rick whitaker
    August 12, 2024 at 6:34 pm
    
    are you ever correct?
PeterH
August 11, 2024 at 12:58 pm

Similar to many States in the USA, independent voters like myself are the second largest voting bloc. Independent voters decide elections! We’ll see in November how many independent voters are excited about voting for a twice impeached, four time indicted, lying birther fraud “businessman” whose personal fiscal decisions have burdened the American taxpayer to fund his six bankruptcies.
- Day 21
  August 11, 2024 at 1:24 pm
  
  Peter H an independent. That’s funny Peter H. You are on this board saying all the time that Republicans must be voted out of office. Those aren’t words from an independent. Those are words from a partisan Democrat.
  - rick whitaker
    August 12, 2024 at 6:36 pm
    
    your words are that of an inane child
Margaret
August 11, 2024 at 2:18 pm

Let’s consider that an awful lot of those Republican transplants from wherever to Florida are old and won’t be alive to vote. Also, maybe, even Republicans are fed up with the vulgarity of their Party’s nominee, and won’t vote, or will vote for a Party which is running a nice, wholesome Minnesotan, former school teacher as Vice-President nominee. And, don’t count out the Black women and Black men who will vote for a historic “first”: a Black-Asian woman.
- Day 21
  August 11, 2024 at 2:29 pm
  
  It’s identity politics for Margaret. Kammy has been the number two on one of the most inept administrations in a lifetime. Margaret doesn’t care about inflation, the border, crime, foreign policy, etc. Margaret is voting for the black female. That’s all that matters to her.
  - Ron Ogden
    August 11, 2024 at 4:17 pm
    
    The last thing Dems want is a unified, responsible, logical electorate. Their manifesto is socialism and their method is to tear down the country so they can use an oppressive federal bureaucracy and an omnipotent federal police state to rebuild it the way they want it. That has been their aim since the end of World War II.
  - Ocean Joe
    August 11, 2024 at 4:29 pm
    
    If Florida had decent border policies we wouldnt be flooded with all these Republican carpet baggers. At least Rush Limbaugh and Mike Huckaby finally left.
- Ocean Joe
  August 11, 2024 at 4:26 pm
  
  Margaret, that’s a dark comment (no pun intended). These Magats will hold on for dear life to be able to vote for their dear loser again. If he wins they can go into the afterlife knowing they’ll have their retribution or revenge or whatever it is Demento always promises. The guy who cheats on taxes and everything else wants revenge because he’s finally being held accountable.
Ocean Joe
August 11, 2024 at 4:21 pm

A million vote margin of folks who will be complaining up a storm when higher utility rates kick in, courtesy of Desantis, his puppets on the so-called Public Service Commission, assisted by FPL and the ghost candidate maneuvers.
This will complement the continuing rise of insurance costs. The wealthy wont care, but those ‘middle’ and lower economic classes might figure out that it was rate approvals, NOT inflation to blame.

Congrats to Ed aka Impeach for being a loyal member of the red blob.
- Day 22
  August 12, 2024 at 2:45 pm
  
  And you too for being a loyal member to the blue blob. 😜
Ed Slavin
August 12, 2024 at 1:16 pm

Probably all the fascists, racists, and greedy, rich Republicans moving in… and all the human beings moving out. Florida will be a theocratic slave state again before too long.😆
Day 22
August 12, 2024 at 2:11 pm

This is very hilarious reading the zombie comments in regards to Repubs catering only to the wealthy. Let’s take some fine Demo zombie politicians like Pelosi, Obama, Schumer, Biden and many others. There was Pelosi caught at the hair dresser in San Francisco while the city was shut down for Covid. Both Schumer and Biden are life long politicians that have never worked in the private sector. Joe has a couple of very nice homes, got his son on the board of Burisma. His boy made big money and could not speak or write a word of the Ukrainian language. Have you seen the spread Obama has in Hawaii?
- ple have nice things, what do you not understandrick whitaker
  August 12, 2024 at 6:40 pm
  
  successful people have nice things, do you not understand how life works. you sound very jealous, are you broke and pissed, or just pissed?
- Mercury Eduardino
  August 12, 2024 at 11:02 pm
  
  Those states have been and always will be more successful regardless of the right wing propaganda that people believe in Florida. If it weren’t for tourism, Florida would just be Mississippi with a beach.. and that’s because of conservatives and their stupidity. People from all over the USA built Florida and now conservatives like to take credit? That’s a joke.. and you are an idiot my friend.
Dont Say FLA
August 15, 2024 at 5:13 pm

MAGA voters should become the people Trump thought they were when he tried so hard and so needlessly to trick them about that horse face lady he never even met and isn’t his type.