Staff Reports
Last Call – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.
First Shot
New polling from the Economist shows Vice President Kamala Harris holding a slight lead over former President Donald Trump.
The poll from the Economist/YouGov, consisting of 1567 U.S. adult citizens from Aug. 11 to Aug. 13, showed Harris ahead of Trump 46% to 44%, a two-point lead, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. taking 3% of voters.
Among those voters, Harris generally has more females voting for her, 49% to 43%, and has 80% of Black voters and 49% of Hispanic voters. Trump meanwhile, has 48% male support versus 40% female support, as well as 52% of white voters.
Trump, however, has seen some significant change in the last few weeks. When voters were asked their preference between Harris and Trump, 48% of males said they would prefer Trump over 47% that would prefer Harris. Week-over-week, this is a four-point drop from where Trump was with male voters in The Economist’s polling.
Meanwhile, Harris holds 51% of female voter preference, versus Trump’s 42%. She also holds a 62-point lead with Black voters in that category (66% to 15%) and a 15-point lead among Hispanic voters (52% to 37%), while trailing Trump with white voters by 13 points (39% to 52%).
Voters were also polled on favorability. Harris leads with 47% favorability versus Trump’s 43% favorability. Harris had 48% view her unfavorably, and Trump had 54%, with both candidates having more voters calling them unfavorable than favorable.
The candidates’ running mates were also polled on favorability. Harris’ running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, holds 40% favorability and 39% favorability. Trump’s running mate, JD Vance, trails being with only 36% favorability and 47% unfavorability.
President Joe Biden also had his popularity surveyed, where he only drew 39% favorability and 58% unfavorability, the worst performance out of all the listed candidates. The results, overall, show a competitive race between Trump and Harris, but Harris has made a strong impression with her candidacy and her running mate compared to Biden.
Evening Reads
—“How Donald Trump’s infatuation with a racist conspiracy theorist is impacting the campaign” via Judd Legum of Popular Information
—”Trump gambles on outside groups to finance voter outreach efforts” via Theodore Schleifer of The New York Times
—”The decline of the 2024 double-hater” via Philip Bump of The Washington Post
—”Will Kamala Harris’ late start help or hurt her in the General Election?” via Caitlin Jewitt and Geoffrey Skelley of FiveThirtyEight
—”Why Trump keeps talking about fictional serial killer Hannibal Lecter” via Marianne LeVine and Clara Ence Morse of The Washington Post
—”When will they speak again? Once close, Joe Biden and Nancy Pelosi are at odds.” via Annie Karni of The New York Times
—”America has a hot-steel problem” via Zoë Schlanger of The Atlantic
—”The dramatic turnaround in millennials’ finances” via Joe Pinsker and Veronica Dagher of The Wall Street Journal
—”Ads from GOP operative, shadowy group target Democrats in heated Florida Senate race” via Steven Lemongello of the Orlando Sentinel
—“How Raygun earned her spot — fair and square — as an Olympics breaker” via Aja Romano of Vox
Quote of the Day
“There’s nothing more dangerous to a democracy than a disengaged electorate.”
— Former U.S. Rep. Stephanie Murphy, at a League of Women’s Voters of Orange County event.
Put it on the Tab
Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.
According to new FAU polling, Florida may be in play this year — we’re not saying we think it’s a purple state again; we just need some help offloading all of this blue curaçao and grenadine, so order a few Purple Rains, please!
Pour Sen. Joe Gruters a Florida Breeze ahead of his news conference unveiling legislation to ban smoking in all public places across Florida.
Help the Bold City welcome DHL to the Northside by shipping over the ingredients for an Airmail: Rum, lime juice, honey syrup and sparkling wine.
Breakthrough Insights
Tune In
Florida team opens play in Little League World Series
Florida will be represented with the Lake Mary Little League team earning the Southeast regional championship. Lake Mary is scheduled to face the Midwest champions from Sioux Falls, S.D (4 p.m. ESPN).
Lake Mary outscored four opponents 35-8 in the regionals to advance to play in Williamsport, Pennsylvania. It’s the first time a team from Lake Mary has advanced to the Little League World Series and the 24th time that a team from Florida has earned a trip to Williamsport.
DJ Mieses led the team with two home runs and a 0.889 batting average in the tournament. Pitcher J.J. Feliciano struck out 13 batters.
Playing in the regional in Warner Robbins, Georgia, Lake Mary shutout Tennessee 11-0 in the final to advance without losing a game.
The winner of this afternoon’s game will advance in the winner’s bracket to face the Northwest champions from Puyallup, Washington. The loser will drop into the elimination bracket where one more loss will send them home. The American champion will face the international champion on Aug. 23 for the Little League World Series championship.
No team from Florida has won the title, although five have advanced to the championship game.
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Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.
