Can Democrats flip a Big Bend Senate seat Joe Biden won in 2020?

Lawyer Daryl Parks has been hammering incumbent Republican Sen. Corey Simon over the Summer ahead of a possible November matchup. But Parks must first win the Democratic  Primary on Tuesday before he charges ahead in what might be the best chance for Democrats to flip a seat in the Senate.

Parks, whose campaign has already been aided by ads being paid for by Senate Democrats, is running against Kimblin NeSmith, a County Commissioner from Gadsden County. NeSmith first entered the race more than a year ago. But Parks, a well-known civil rights lawyer from Tallahassee, has outraised him significantly since he entered the race in April.

Parks has been running ads on local television and on social media sites for weeks now that have been hitting Simon on abortion and homeowners insurance. Senate Republicans haven’t waited for the Primary to end and have responded with their own set of ads firing back at Parks, criticizing him over comments he made in the aftermath of the death of George Floyd.

Senate District 3 is a sprawling district that is made up of 13 counties in the Big Bend and North Florida region.

Simon, a former football star who played for Florida State University and in the NFL, claimed the seat for Republicans in 2022 by defeating incumbent Loranne Ausley. Simon won the seat 53% to 47% even though district voters went for Joe Biden over Donald Trump by a 3-percentage-point margin two years earlier.

But Democrats are anticipating that they will have a better turnout during a Presidential Election year, with signs that Vice President Kamala Harris’ candidacy has reenergized their base.

Tallahassee remains the fulcrum of the seat but both candidates have long-running ties to the area they can lean into. 

Parks, who once was a law partner of nationally-known lawyer Ben Crump, has been working in the area for decades, while Simon has substantial name recognition due to his football career.

If Parks wins the Primary, as expected, then it would be likely that both parties will pour money into the contest. Senate District 3 is the only seat won by Biden that is held by a Republican and will be on this year’s ballot.