A.G. Gancarski
New polling from Fairleigh Dickinson University explores race and gender in the presidential race, factors playing against GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump.
“Trump has built his political career around a very specific performance of whiteness and masculinity,” said Dan Cassino, a professor of Government and Politics at Fairleigh Dickinson, and the Executive Director of the poll. “In the past, that’s been seen as a strength, but it’s no longer clear that it’s working.”
The FDU poll shows Kamala Harris ahead 50% to 43% with likely voters nationally, but the real novelty in this survey is its test of whether gender and race matter.
A third of respondents were asked if they considered “The Race or Ethnicity of the Candidate,” and another third were given “Whether the Candidate is a Man or a Woman.” The remainder were given no questions along those lines.
“Among voters who were not primed to think about the race or sex of the candidates, Harris and Trump are tied (47 to 48). When the list of issues mentions the sex of the candidates, Harris pulls ahead, 52 to 42. And when the race of the candidates is mentioned, Harris holds a 14-point lead, 53 to 39, a 15-point shift from the baseline condition,” FDU notes.
For Cassino, these findings have profound implications.
“When voters are thinking about race or sex, Trump’s support just plummets,” said Cassino. “All the time, we hear strategists and pundits saying that Democratic candidates shouldn’t talk about identity, but these results show that making race and sex salient to voters is bad for Trump and boosts Harris.”
That boost is significant indeed.
Without the question that “primes” the response, Harris is up 55% to 39% with non-white voters. But when race is mentioned, Harris’ lead grows to 65% to 29% with the same group.
“Race matters in elections, but it’s not inevitable that voters are thinking about it,” said Cassino. “Trump does reasonably well among non-white voters so long as they’re not thinking about race: once they are, we see a huge shift to Harris.”
The same effect happens with white voters.
“In the unprimed condition, Trump leads Harris among white voters by 11 points, 53 to 42. In the race primed condition, the two are tied, with Harris marginally ahead among white voters, 47 to 44.”
A similar phenomenon is in play regarding gender and its effect on voters.
“Mentioning the sex of the candidates has no real effect on men’s votes: it increases support for Harris by five points and reduces support for Trump by 2. But among women, mentioning the sex of the candidates drops Trump’s support by 7, from 40 percent in the unprimed condition to 33 percent in the gender primed condition. The net effect is a change from women favoring Harris by 16 (56 to 40) in the unprimed condition to favoring her by 26 (59 to 33) in the gender primed condition,” FDU notes.
Additionally, pollsters find that “a little more than half of men say that they’re ‘completely masculine,’ and a little less than half describe themselves some other way (as ‘mostly masculine,’ ‘slightly masculine’ or in one of the feminine categories). The men who put themselves in the ‘completely masculine’ category favor Trump over Harris by a wide margin, 64 to 30. All other men favor Harris by a 20-point margin, 55 to 35.”
“We talk about the gender gap in voting as being between men and women,” said Cassino. “But it’s not. The real gender gap is between men who are holding to traditionally masculine identities, and everybody else. Identity isn’t just about race and sex: Trump’s appeal to a traditional form of masculine identity is the only thing keeping this race close.”
38 comments
Day 32
August 24, 2024 at 8:47 am
Must be a slow news day eh Gancarski? A poll from a very small private rich kid liberal school in Jersey. Yawn.
Yrral
August 24, 2024 at 10:41 am
White fragility
A Day without MAGA
August 24, 2024 at 11:18 am
Do you think the average White woman,get up in the morning,think about bringing racist trash into the world,unless your mom did,one day you White Supremacy gonna find yourself bred out of existence
Day 34
August 24, 2024 at 12:15 pm
Where did you learn to write? White people aren’t insecure around you. They just have no idea what the heck you are saying. Shame on you or your English teacher.
Yrral
August 24, 2024 at 1:38 pm
You do not represent all White,just the worst of White people,that Trump bring out in MAGA Whites,I am sure your mama is proud of your ilk
Day 34
August 24, 2024 at 11:47 am
Negative my black racist friend.
A Day without MAGA
August 24, 2024 at 12:02 pm
No it not racist,White people like you cannot handle the the truth about yourself,you cannot name one thing redemning about Trump,if you can name it ,you probably cannot
Hugh Jazdik
August 26, 2024 at 10:31 pm
And non whites li,e yourself can’t accept the FACT that only you and your culture are to blame for your personal failures. Deep down,you are just angry at your non existent father.
Hugh Jazdik
August 26, 2024 at 10:29 pm
Yet it is non whites who blame other races for their own poor life decisions, those of their parents, as well as their culture…
Kenny Karl Kaiser
August 24, 2024 at 9:10 am
When people are not primed to think about race and gender, they just think about who they trust to be president and who has the right qualifications. When they are triggered to think about identity, they skew the way the poll indicates. In other words, they have to be told to think about race and gender to get the results the liberals want. They have to be warned that this is what they, the respondents to the poll, will be judged on. This is little different than saying, “vote for the black female or else.” This is what the folks in white hoods did decades ago, except it was the other side of the race issue (there were other issues). We have reverted to 100 years ago, and I am sure there are Democrats now, as there were then, who think its a good thing.
Al Sharpton
August 24, 2024 at 9:12 am
Vote for the giggling, clueless black girl. Do not vote for the white devil.
Super Black Elvis
August 24, 2024 at 9:15 am
Saw ya at the DNC, Al, you Totally $ucked …. and not in a good way,
SUPER BLACK ELVIS
Super Elvis
August 24, 2024 at 9:13 am
America, I, SUPER ELVIS, just ran this by Snoops and we found this artical to be totally false. And allthough Snoops seldom comments further ….. in this eggregious case they added in the phrase “Total Bovine Manure” to their Sage Snoops Findings.
Thank you America, Good Morn ‘Ting, and dont forget to “Relax Your Political Sphincters” to allow desperate lies like this artical to Pass Into The Pot, be Flushed away, and forgotten about.
These Sage Words of Truth are brought to you by The Super Elvis Fan Club’s POLY-SCI DIVISION,
ELVIS
ScienceBLVR
August 24, 2024 at 9:27 am
There have been a number of studies on this phenomenon the “personalization of politics” where the influence of the candidate as an individual is enhanced at the expense of parties. Obviously Trump is a prime example of this, just look at the Republicans giving up conservative values to bow and scrape at the MAGA alter. White Masculinity-Meet Tim Walz!
Al Sharpton
August 24, 2024 at 9:32 am
Walz has no balls.
A Day without MAGA
August 24, 2024 at 10:12 am
Lots of White men have a psychological inferiority complex,and a psychological insecure of Black people having power over them, Black people have no fear of White people,it the opposite lots of White have fear of being under Black rule ,most Black people can sense insecure White people,I deal with White people,but the one one i deal with are ignorant
Day 34
August 24, 2024 at 11:44 am
Seems to me you have some racist tendencies. It appears you flunked basic English, judging your writing skills.
A Day without MAGA
August 24, 2024 at 12:17 pm
What can you offer a woman in a relationship, probably nothing, probably because you have an abnormal love for Trump,you are the kind of man that live Trump,more than a woman and would not mine, being humiliated for your love if him,more than Melania
Ocean Joe
August 24, 2024 at 12:25 pm
Day 34, you gonna take that lying down (no pun intended)?
Day 34
August 24, 2024 at 12:34 pm
Ha! Ha! I don’t know what he is saying and I’m not sure he knows what he is sayin as well.🤣
Hugh Jazdik
August 26, 2024 at 10:37 pm
There is a reason why conservatives are viewed as masculine and the leftists are feminine. Even leftist women complain that men with similar simple minded outlook on politics are weak, chijless, and mouth breathing.
Michael K
August 24, 2024 at 10:13 am
Trump is not even man enough to admit a mistake – like calling for the execution of the innocent Central Park Five, or his last electoral loss. Neither he nor Vance hold core values of decency that define truly great men. They are cartoon buffoon shape shifters of strength.
There are some white people who will not even pronounce the Vice Presidents name correctly just to show their disdain and lack of respect – a relic of the Jim Crow era.
Yrral
August 24, 2024 at 10:19 am
Lots you Whites that support Trump, know your White relatives look down on you ,and do not even associate with you, Google Whites That Do Not Associate With MAGA Relative
Michael S
August 24, 2024 at 11:09 am
Kenny Karl Kaiser
August 24, 2024 at 9:10 am
When people are not primed to think about race and gender, they just think about who they trust to be president and who has the right qualifications.
That’s a thought…..another thought is that some of Trump’s poll support is so thin that even only a mild challenge to their convictions cause them to fold. I thought Trump supporters are the strong, but as another anti-Harris poster notes above, the pollsters were only a bunch of little rich kids. You’ve got to hope it’s not bad weather on Election Day.
Ocean Joe
August 24, 2024 at 11:22 am
Odd survey. Speaking of masculine, the guy who wears all the make up and bijon frisse on his head was down at the border laying out two gigantic contradictions:
First, he says although we got millions more votes than we did the first time, “we didnt quite make it, just a little bit short.” Admitting once again that he lost (despite tearing the country apart lying about it and preparing in September to honor the Jan 6 traitors he conned into ransacking the capitol. If he knows he lost, and admits it, why is half the country still buying into his lies?
Second, he’s complaining about the border….months after telling his GOP cucks to vote against a bill led by Lankford(R) that would have gone a long way to fix the problem.
We all know he lost, and he always puts himself first. Just wondering why he has to keep reminding us.
Yrral
August 24, 2024 at 11:43 am
JD Vance is dealing with latent homosexual tendencies, people like him try to.mask these tendencies,by over compensation of their masculinity JD Vance was 28 years old when he started dressing as a drag Queen Google JD Vance Drag Queen
Day 34
August 24, 2024 at 12:01 pm
Walz has no balls. He did graduate from Pelosi pom pom shaking school. Put a skirt on him when he shakes those Poms. You Demos will eat that right up.
Yrral
August 24, 2024 at 12:19 pm
Maybe Trump balls been your mouth
Day 34
August 24, 2024 at 12:36 pm
Well we do know who’s balls Kammy had in her mouth now don’t we? 🤣
Yrral
August 24, 2024 at 1:32 pm
You even man enough to defend yourself,you cannot name one thing redemning about Trump, unless you have a man crush on him
Day 32
August 24, 2024 at 1:43 pm
I’ll try to keep this in simple terms for you Yrral. Trump is an a-hole. Yet the saying is, “ he is our a-hole”. Things were better under him. Bad guys around the world respected him because he told them not to phuck with us. The economy was better. Inflation was lower. We did not have the chaos at the Southern Border. Yes Trump is an a-hole and I would prefer a different candidate but he is far superior to Kammy. Of course you will disagree but that’s my opinion.
Ocean Joe
August 24, 2024 at 12:31 pm
Pelosi looked pretty rough at that convention, at 84 glad she still had the stones to push Sleepy Joe ‘off the cliff.’ Only watched snippets, selected speeches from both conventions, must say an awful lot of paper was wasted with stupid signs, but will give the Dems credit for not having Ted Neugent.
Flash Light
August 25, 2024 at 6:11 am
But I’m betting Walz can kick your ass through a goalpost.
BE BEST!
rbruce
August 24, 2024 at 11:47 am
Fairleigh Dickinson University are experts in Whiteness and Masculinity.
Yrral
August 24, 2024 at 12:35 pm
Kennedy wife probably gonna kick RFK Jr to the curb Google Cheryl Hines Trump
Cindy
August 25, 2024 at 11:20 am
Donald ran against hard core indoctrination
Hugh Jazdik
August 26, 2024 at 10:35 pm
LOL, not even democrats think this poll is legitimate. Just read the incompe5ent words of the so called Professor Dan Cassino in the first paragraph. It will tell you all that you need to know about any potential bias in this “national poll.”
In reality, this poll was taken in a mostly blue state, and even then they had to fudge the numbers in order to reach the desired results…
ThomasB
August 28, 2024 at 2:07 am
Very interesting survey. Noted. For me the deciding point is Trumps age: He will be well Into his eighties and way to old towards the end of a new term. Passing 80 you are on extra time and not fit for the job
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