Associated Press
As Vice President Kamala Harris begins her Fall campaign for the White House, she can look to history and hope for better luck than others in her position who have tried the same.
Since 1836, only one sitting Vice President, George H.W. Bush in 1988, has been elected to the White House. Among those who tried and failed were Richard Nixon in 1960, Hubert Humphrey in 1968 and Al Gore in 2000. All three lost in narrow elections shaped by issues ranging from war and scandal to crime and the subtleties of televised debates. But two other factors proved crucial for each Vice President: whether the incumbent President was well-liked and whether the President and Vice President enjoyed a productive relationship.
“You really do want those elements to come together,” says Julian Zelizer, a professor of history and public affairs at Princeton University. “If the person the Vice President is working for is popular, that means people like what he’s doing and you can gain from that. And you need to have the two principals working together.”
In 1988, Bush easily defeated Democrat Michael Dukakis, the Massachusetts Governor whom Republicans labeled as ineffectual and out of touch. Bush was otherwise helped by a solid economy, the easing of Cold War tensions and some rare luck for a Vice President. President Ronald Reagan’s approval ratings rose through much of the year after falling sharply in the wake of the 1986-87 Iran-Contra scandal, and Reagan and Bush worked well together during the campaign. Reagan openly backed his Vice President, who had run against him in the 1980 Primaries. He praised Bush at the Republican convention as an engaged and invaluable partner, appeared with him at a California rally and spoke at gatherings in Michigan, New Jersey and Missouri.
“Reagan was not a man to hold grudges,” said historian-journalist Jonathan Darman. “And Bush did a good job of navigating the complexity of their relationship while he was Vice President.”
Past Vice Presidents who ran
When Gore ran in 2000, his advantages were similar to those enjoyed by George H.W. Bush. The economy was strong, the country was at peace and the President, Bill Clinton, had high approval ratings despite his recent impeachment over his affair with White House intern Monica Lewinsky.
Gore had worked closely with Clinton over the previous eight years, but the scandal led to enduring tensions between them. He minimized the President’s presence during the campaign and pronounced himself “my own man” during his acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention. Commentators would cite his distance from Clinton as a setback in a historically close race, decided by a margin of fewer than 1,000 votes in Florida.
“Instead of finding a way to embrace the accomplishments of the Clinton administration, Gore ran away from Clinton as fast as his legs could carry him,” Slate’s Jacob Weisberg wrote soon after the election.
Like Gore, Nixon could not — or would not — capitalize on the incumbent Dwight Eisenhower’s popularity. In 1960, Eisenhower was still so admired as he neared the end of his second term that Nixon’s opponent, Democrat John F. Kennedy, feared the President’s active support would prove critical. But Eisenhower and Nixon had a complicated relationship dating back to when Eisenhower ran eight years earlier. He had chosen Nixon as his running mate, but nearly dropped him because of the so-called Checkers scandal, in which Nixon was accused of misusing funds donated by political backers.
Nixon was more than 20 years younger than Eisenhower, the victorious World War II commander who often looked upon his Vice President as a junior officer, according to Nixon biographer John A. Farrell. At the end of a Summer press conference in 1960, Eisenhower was asked if he could cite Nixon’s influence on any important decision. He answered, “If you give me a week, I might think of one.” Meanwhile, Nixon was reluctant to have Eisenhower campaign, out of a desire to forge his own path, and, allegedly, out of concern for the 70-year-old President.
“Nixon very much wanted to be his own man,” says Farrell, whose prize-winning “Richard Nixon” was published in 2017. “He always said he was worried about Eisenhower’s health, but there are also anecdotes that Eisenhower was chafing at the bit. Both could be true.”
Nixon’s luck changed when he ran eight years later against Lyndon B. Johnson’s Vice President. No Vice President was more entrapped by his predecessor than Humphrey, whose candidacy was only possible because Johnson decided not to seek re-election.
Humphrey faced challenges within the party from the anti-war candidates Eugene McCarthy and Robert F. Kennedy (who was assassinated in June 1968 after winning the California Primary) and was tied to Johnson’s divisive, hawkish stance.
Humphrey privately advocated a less hardline approach to the war, but Johnson intimidated him into silence and he trailed Nixon badly in many polls. Only in the fall did Humphrey diverge and call for a bombing halt with North Vietnam. The Vice President rallied, but ended up losing the popular vote by less than a percentage point while falling short more decisively in the Electoral College.
“Johnson did catastrophic damage to Humphrey, in my opinion,” says Boston Globe columnist Michael Cohen, author of a book on the 1968 election, “American Carnage.”
How does Harris fare?
Like Johnson, President Joe Biden declared he wouldn’t seek a new term less than a year before Election Day, though he waited much longer in the cycle than Johnson did. Unlike Humphrey, Harris quickly consolidated Democratic support and accepted her party’s nomination at an uplifting convention that concluded without significant damage from protests, unlike the violence-marred 1968 event in the same city, Chicago.
In an AP-NORC survey conducted in July, after Biden dropped out of the race, about 4 in 10 Americans approved of his performance as President, roughly where his approval numbers have stood since the Summer of 2021 and comparable to those of the Republican nominee, Donald Trump. Eisenhower, Reagan and Clinton frequently held higher approval ratings than Biden, although all served in less polarized eras.
Harris wants to succeed a President who himself served as Vice President and ran for President, four years later. President Barack Obama discouraged Biden from seeking election in 2016 and waited to endorse Biden in 2020 until the crowded Democratic Primary field was clear.
“Obama became an enthusiastic backer, which helped unify the party at a time when Biden’s record on race in the 1990s, including his support for the crime bill, was fueling doubts among young progressive voters,” Biden biographer Evan Osnos says. “Obama’s endorsement of Biden was about more than his candidacy; it was about his character, and that proved to be important.”
As President, Biden has worked to include Harris on his major policy calls and conversations with foreign leaders. He’s pledged to be Harris’ top campaign volunteer and to do whatever she asks of him for her election, though aides are still determining where the still-unpopular President would best be utilized. On Labor Day, Biden and Harris will appear together in Pittsburgh for a campaign event in a key swing state, Pennsylvania.
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Republished with permission of The Associated Press.
23 comments
Yrral
August 28, 2024 at 1:10 pm
Black MAGA is sinking Trump like a stone in North Carolina,he is down by almost 10 points to Josh Stein the Attorney General of North Carolina Google Black MAGA Trump North Carolina
Phil Morton
August 28, 2024 at 1:36 pm
Al Gore won the popular vote in 2000. Just sayin’.
cassandra was right
August 28, 2024 at 3:53 pm
Al Gore won the popular vote in Florida, which means he won the US electoral vote.
Day 37
August 28, 2024 at 2:54 pm
Amazing the most unpopular Demo candidate back in 2019-2020, who then becomes a DEI pick for VP could actually become President of the USA. Talk about a turnaround. Now if we can only figure out where she stands on things. Will the real Kammy Harris please stand up?
Tom
August 28, 2024 at 3:57 pm
It’s identity politics. Nobody cares. She’s not trump so people will happily vote D all up and down the ticket until they stop dragging his sorry ass out somehow pretending he’s fit to hold office. If it were Nikki, R’s in a landslide. Such is life (as things stand today at least).
Michael K
August 28, 2024 at 7:20 pm
Vance is a DEI Affirmative Action pick because Trump thought a youngish faux hillbilly would give him rural cred. Don’t be fooled- he’s a venture capitalist beholden to the billionaires who made him. Eighteen months as a Senator is a short resume even for a Trump VP. Wonder if he’s talked to Mike Pence? Trump turns on everyone, eventually.
Ocean Joe
August 28, 2024 at 8:59 pm
She stands for an assault weapons ban. Isn’t it time you did too?
She stands for recognizing and dealing with climate change instead of ignoring it or calling it a hoax. Isn’t it time you joined the bulk of Republican voters and did too?
She supports a woman’s right to control her own body. This is a bridge too far for the evangelicals, but how about you?
She doesn’t constantly tell us how smart she is. What’s with that anyway? Overcompensation like the make-up, the lifts, the comb over from hell, the shoulder pads? He’s as fake as the wrestlers who endorsed him.
Yrral
August 29, 2024 at 10:25 am
White Fragility
rick whitaker
August 29, 2024 at 11:33 am
DAY 37 HOWLER MONKEY, based on your crazy posts, i’m wondering who would be stupid enough to hire you. your comments about the fine person kammala harris are par for you. you are about as devoid of good sense as i have seen. pitiful, dude or dudette. come on, let me hear you howl.
Michael K
August 28, 2024 at 7:08 pm
I’ve known many elected officials over the years, and some of the best suffered early electoral losses that taught them to be more humble and reflective leaders. Good leaders learn from mistakes – arrogant leaders do not.
Don’t forget that Vance – who changed his name three times – was a never Trumper. And Trump is an old, impeached felon who paid hush money to an Dukt film actress, is an insurrectionist. And despite their protests, both are fully aware and supportive of Project 2025 – there are videos to prove it.
The choice this year is clear. Decency over criminals and shape shifting opportunists.
Ocean Joe
August 28, 2024 at 8:54 pm
If Harris wins she’d be the first vp since 1836 elected.
And if Trump wins, he’d be the first convicted felon, the first twice impeached, the first to send a mob to ransack our own Capitol, and the first to take the Russian’s word over US intelligence ever elected.
Lock'emup
August 29, 2024 at 10:55 am
Trump just committed the equivalent of his infamous Times Square remark. He stood on the graves of soldiers at Arlington for a political photo op. And let’s not forget he, and his administration set the deadline to the exact date, to retreat from Afghanistan.
Day 38
August 29, 2024 at 11:46 am
He might have set the date but he didn’t plan, approve and execute that debacle. It was the Fall of Saigon part 2. An absolute embarrassment and obviously Biden didn’t want to be bothered when he received the fallen service members at Dover AFB. Looking at his watch. Another embarrassment.
rick whitaker
August 29, 2024 at 12:21 pm
PEACHY, why do you try to act like you know something? don’t you know that we got your card.
Day 38
August 29, 2024 at 12:43 pm
All’s what you have is insults. I can insult right back. Rather than counter my statement it’s just the angry, and dumb hillbilly with his personal attacks. Keep them coming. Challenge accepted.
rick whitaker
August 29, 2024 at 1:15 pm
PEACHY, you are calling me out for pointing out your lies and errors. that is not an insult, it is a fact, something you have little respect for. you stop lying and i will stop pointing the lies out. that sounds fair to me, but then i’m not a maga cultist so i can still think straight. your maga positions prevent you from seeing the light. you choose darkness, i can’t change that. you can’t counter a statement as you said , if the statement isn’t true. all you can do with an obvious lie or misconception, is point it out for what it is. you can’t be that dumb, you know i’m right. you just enjoy being a contrarian.
Day 38
August 29, 2024 at 1:21 pm
You still haven’t countered my point about the Afghanistan withdrawal. I’m not a MAGA guy by the way. You disagree with me and that’s fair. You are old and set in your ways. I get it pops.😜
rick whitaker
August 29, 2024 at 1:56 pm
PEACHY, as people that pay attention to good media know, biden’s hands were tied by the bad agreements trump made. other than that, i don’t know what your talking about. you tout almost every maga lie out there , but you say you’re not maga. explain that. i don’t just disagree with you, because that requires you to have a valid point. you rely heavy on talking points, whataboutisms, and gross misconceptions. that’s not a disagreement, it’s a fools game. i’m old, but since i’m openminded and not full of misconceptions, i can easily change my point when more info is available or with more thought. most normal people can do that, but cultist can not. you are wrong once again. i rarely ever see you saying something that is real or true. dude or dudette, watch tyt for a while. you may be a little salvageable, but i doubt it. you are quite dense.
Day 38
August 29, 2024 at 2:07 pm
Now tell me again that wacko leftist news organization you get your info from?
rick whitaker
August 29, 2024 at 11:22 pm
PEACHY, it’s called public information, it’s data driven and lacks politicizing. as i told your dumb ass before, try the TYT network. you can find it on you tube and from the TYT site. it is probably over your head. fox is more on your level.
Day 38
August 29, 2024 at 3:41 pm
Oh and please don’t call me Peachy. That’s sets off my gay dar and it takes me back to the movie Deliverance and you are one of those creeps that rolled in on Bobby.
rick whitaker
August 29, 2024 at 11:29 pm
PEACHY, what the hell are you babbling about? i don’t know who bobby is, dude or dudette. posters keep saying that you are a russian shill, but i don’t think russians are that stupid. you know who you are, but you don’t have the balls or ovaries to be honest about it. peachy mark surely isn’t your real name, is it?
Making no sense
August 29, 2024 at 5:55 pm
America is simple. Engineers and gold diggers and enterprise.
There are different ways of saying the wild wild west.
But some groups have a different method in doing so. Now you needs locks on your doors
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