Peter Schorsch
Last Call – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.
First Shot
More than nine in 10 voters have locked in on their pick for President and say there’s no way they’ll change their minds in the nine weeks leading up to Election Day, according to the latest polling from the Economist/YouGov.
The survey, conducted Sept. 1-3, found Vice President Kamala Harris hanging on to her slim lead over former President Donald Trump, 47%-45%, which falls within the poll’s 3.3% margin of error.
When asked whether they were dead set on their candidate of choice, 96% of voters who said they were backing Harris said and 95% of those backing Trump said “yes.”
The locked-in rate was consistent across most race, income and gender demos, though there appears to be some give among Xennials — 7% of 30- to 44-year-old Harris voters indicated they may flip, as did 9% of Trump supporters in that set.
Additionally, about 10% of Black Trump supporters — a small bloc, but one that’s substantially larger this year than in 2016 or 2020 — said they may waver.
YouGov also asked voters, regardless of who they’re voting for, which candidate they think will win in November. The perception that Harris is ahead carried here as well, with 38% forecasting a win for the VP compared to 33% who expect Trump to return to the White House. The remaining 29% said they weren’t sure.
Evening Reads
—”Wait — do Kamala Harris and Donald Trump actually agree on fracking?” via Umair Irfan of Vox
—”The 34 wackiest lines from Trump’s ‘interview’ with Sean Hannity” via Chris Cillizza of So What
—”Harris raised over $300 million in August, extending cash windfall” via Natasha Korecki and Carol E. Lee of NBC News
—”Former Congresswoman Liz Cheney said she will vote for Harris at Duke event” via Michael Austin, Zoe Kolenovsky and Ava Littman of The Chronicle
—”Strategic lobbying critical for Corporate Korea: Top Washington lobbyist” via Moon Joon-hyun of The Korea Herald
—”Ron DeSantis, Heritage Foundation team up to kill Florida abortion measure” via Andrew Perez of Rolling Stone
—“DeSantis administration reviewing abortion amendment petitions for ‘fraudsters’” via Justin Garcia, Lawrence Mower and Romy Ellenbogen of the Tampa Bay Times
—”Secret Florida water summit lets polluters talk to government without press or public present” via Craig Pittman of the Florida Phoenix
—”The races that will decide the fate of the Republican supermajority in Florida” via Jason Garcia of Seeking Rents
—”Associated Industries of Florida endorses three more legislative candidates from South Florida” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics
Quote of the Day
“It appears this plan’s success relied on hiding it from our citizens.”
— Florida’s Democratic congressional delegation, in a letter calling for an investigation of the since-retracted state park development plan.
Put it on the Tab
Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.
Good news for Duke Energy customers: your utility bill will get a 5%-11% haircut starting in January. If you’re looking for a way to say “thank you,” snag an Electric Lemonade for the next lineman you see.
Congratulations to the latest legislative candidates who landed endorsements from the influential business group AIF. A Taking Care of Business sounds like the ideal way to celebrate.
The Florida GOP will doubtless have wins to celebrate on Election Day, but the race for Florida’s 9th Judicial Circuit State Attorney won’t be one of them. Give RPOF Chair Evan Power a light ribbing with an ice-cold Blank Space.
Breakthrough Insights
Tune In
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers kick off the NFL season Sunday on the road against the Washington Commanders (4:25 E.T., FOX).
The Bucs won the NFC South last season and earned a playoff spot. This season, Tampa Bay added a few new faces. Still, most of the team’s offseason activity involved retaining critical players like quarterback Baker Mayfield, wide receiver Mike Evans, and linebacker Lavonte David.
The Buccaneers used a first-round draft pick on center Graham Barton and a third-round selection on wide receiver Jalen McMillan. Both were named as starters.
Mayfield played sparingly in the preseason, attempting only three passes in his only game. Kyle Trask beat out John Wolford for the backup job at quarterback.
The Buccaneers defense will face Washington’s rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels. The reigning Heisman Trophy winner from LSU completed 12 of 15 passes for 123 yards in two preseason games. Sunday will be his NFL regular season debut.
Washington added veteran running back Austin Ekeler and tight end Zach Ertz in free agency to bolster the offense. On defense, former Seattle Seahawk star linebacker Bobby Wagner signed a one-year deal as did former first-round pick Dante Fowler.
The Commanders are long shots to make the playoffs, and the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys are the odds-on favorites to win the NFC East.
The Bucs are the consensus pick to finish second in the NFC South behind the Atlanta Falcons.
___
Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.
