How hot is Billy Napier’s seat in Gainesville?

billy Napier has 52 million reasons to smile. Image via Fresh Take Florida.

After losing the season opener to Miami, the pressure has turned up on Florida head coach Billy Napier.

The Gators get an easier task on Saturday when they host Samford (7 p.m. ET, ESPN) but after that, the road gets more difficult.

Will Napier be able to turn his team around and withstand the SEC schedule?

Will Florida athletic director Scott Stricklin remain patient with his football coach?

Will we see a change before the end of the season?

Let’s take these questions one at a time, starting with the schedule.

Following the Samford game, Florida will host Texas A&M on Sept. 14. The Aggies have their own issues. After a 23-13 home loss to Notre Dame to open the season, A&M’s first-year head coach Mike Elko is still trying to turn the program around. It’s a game Florida should win, especially at home.

The following week, the Gators play their first road game of the season at Mississippi State. Only Vanderbilt was projected to finish below Mississippi State in the preseason SEC predictions. That should also be a win.

After a bye week, the Gators host UCF. The Knights were picked as a middle-of-the-pack team in the Big 12. Again, considering the game is scheduled to be played at the Swamp, Florida should win that one as well. If all goes to plan, the Gators will head to Tennessee with a 4-1 record and on a four-game winning streak.

Then it’s onto a gauntlet of six straight SEC teams who could all be favored over the Gators by the time the games kick off. First, the Gators will face Tennessee on its home turf, followed by a home game against Kentucky. After that it’s off to Jacksonville to play Georgia, followed by an away game against Texas. The Gators will then head home for games against LSU and Ole Miss before heading to Tallahassee for the season finale against Florida State.

What are the realistic expectations for Napier and the Gators? If they win the next four and then beat Kentucky and Florida State, Florida would be bowl-eligible. It won’t be an easy road and it will take some impressive performances for the Gators’ faithful to forget what happened in the opener.

But coming off back-to-back seasons that fell short of expectations, a third would certainly mean the end for Napier as head coach.

Money matters

How loyal will Stricklin remain to Napier? Part of the equation is money. According to Front Office Sports, Florida would lose $27 million if Napier were fired because the agreement called for him to make 85% of his remaining salary. Napier signed a $51.8 million deal in 2021 that lasts through 2028.

But losing six straight games dating back to last season has lost Napier any benefit of the doubt. If fans and boosters continue to call for a change, the athletic director has no choice but to listen.

Missing out on bowl games can cost teams millions and failing to produce successful seasons can cost even more in sponsorship and booster donations. With the current NIL environment, it can create a domino effect. Fewer dollars generated by collectives means less to put toward luring top prospects to a school, which makes it more difficult to compete, especially in the SEC where competition in recruiting is as tough as anywhere in the country.

Is a change coming?

This may depend on style points as much as results. If the Gators play well but lose to some of the top teams on their schedule, like Georgia, Texas or Ole Miss, it could buy Napier more time. But getting blown out in those games, especially in the highly visible matchup against Georgia, could be the last straw. SportsBetting.ag has Napier listed as the odds-on favorite to be the first college coach fired this season, at 2-3 odds.

Something has to change quickly for the Napier-era to continue in Gainesville. If it does not, Florida will be looking for its fifth head football coach since 2011.