Poll shows Donald Trump with just a 1-point lead in Florida over Kamala Harris
Donald Trump, Kamala Harris. Image via AP.

download - 2024-09-04T074840.898
The difference falls within the Independent Center survey's margin of error.

New polling finds Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump with just a 1-percentage-point lead in Florida over Democrat Kamala Harris.

The Independent Center released polling of three Southern swing states: Florida, Georgia and North Carolina. Trump’s only lead was in his home state of Florida, but in all three states the margin between the candidates is within the poll’s margin of error.

In Florida, about 48% of likely voters polled plan to support Trump, while 47% will fill in the bubble for Harris.

That’s in a head-to-head race, but Trump similarly leads when voters are given the option of an unnamed independent or third-party candidate. In that scenario, 46% would support Trump, 45% would back Harris and 4% would go with the third option.

Pollsters report a 4-percentage-point margin of error on the Florida results

Voters were also asked whether they supported their candidate more because the contest would result in an “awesome President” or a “garbage President.” Harris appeared to have more positive support, with 67% of pro-Harris respondents voting for her affirmatively and just 33% casting anti-Trump votes. Meanwhile, about 61% of Trump supporters chose the positive sentiment about the Republican, while 39% are voting defensively against Harris.

Florida voters appear split on how much they like either candidate, according to the poll. About 49% of voters have a favorable view of Trump, while 50% hold an unfavorable view, putting the Republican 1 percentage point underwater. Meanwhile, Harris saw an equal 49% of voters in the favorable and unfavorable camps.

Florida voters feel more favorable about Republicans overall. About 51% have a positive view of the Republican Party compared to 45% with a negative view. Meanwhile, the Democratic Party is slightly underwater, with 49% seeing it unfavorably and 48% holding a favorable view.

Additionally, about 43% intend to vote Republican in their local congressional races, while 41% plan to vote Democrat and 6% want to support an independent or third-party candidate.

U.S. Sen. Rick Scott holds only a slightly bigger edge in his re-election bid against Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. About 46% of voters plan to support Scott, while 44% will vote for Mucarsel-Powell, so his lead still falls in the poll’s margin of error.

But the polling also shows voters want parties working together. About 71% said they view it favorably when an elected official works across the aisle, while 15% view bipartisanship unfavorably.

About 48% of Florida voters say they would consider a viable independent or third-party candidate for President.

Jacob Ogles

Jacob Ogles has covered politics in Florida since 2000 for regional outlets including SRQ Magazine in Sarasota, The News-Press in Fort Myers and The Daily Commercial in Leesburg. His work has appeared nationally in The Advocate, Wired and other publications. Events like SRQ’s Where The Votes Are workshops made Ogles one of Southwest Florida’s most respected political analysts, and outlets like WWSB ABC 7 and WSRQ Sarasota have featured his insights. He can be reached at [email protected].


22 comments

  • "E"

    September 26, 2024 at 11:33 am

    Good Morn ‘ting Florida voters still “On The Fence” about how to cast your Sage Vote on Recreational Weed,
    Please review the artical below reprinted with permission from The Sage “E” as it also applies to how the left is tricking you into voting yes on recreational weed.
    Remember, Sage Patriot & Dook 4 Brains Leftist fans of “The Sage “E”:
    IT’S NOT NEWS UNTIL “THE SAGE “E” WEIGHS IN:
    As I’ve addressed in prior “Sage Golden Nugget Drops Of Pure “D” Wisdom, there are actually very few Harris or former Biden voters posting any comments here or in any publications. This also applies for X, FB, and IG … along with all media.
    In order to make it look like its not just a Total Trump 8UTT KICKING all media is paying workers to come on and post crazy Harris support and negative Trump hate stories.
    The same is true here all of our posters are actually and logically voting for The Sage Donald J. Trump. This is how media in The USA does it’s job.
    Thank you, Sage Patriot & Dook 4 Brains Leftist fans of “The Sage “E”,
    “The Sage “E”,

    Reply

    • Jason

      September 26, 2024 at 1:16 pm

      What in the hell was that mumbo jumbo! LOL!

      Reply

      • rick whitaker

        September 26, 2024 at 4:32 pm

        JASON, yeah earl is a nut. his real name is billy purser born in the 40’s. he changes his name regularly, thinking he’s some kind of entertainer. how sad. he’s a cos-player from the 60’s, that never matured.

        Reply

        • Jason

          September 26, 2024 at 5:15 pm

          Sounds like it rick.

          Reply

  • Jason

    September 26, 2024 at 1:15 pm

    She’s making gains in Florida! That’s a good sign!

    Reply

    • Eugenia

      September 27, 2024 at 3:49 am

      Media Lies! Trump is winning by far.

      Reply

      • Josh Green

        September 27, 2024 at 10:55 pm

        Actually he isn’t.
        And he lost in 2020 too, no matter what your cult leader wants you to believe.

        Reply

      • Trevor

        September 28, 2024 at 9:03 pm

        And Trump doesn’t?

        Reply

      • Jason

        September 29, 2024 at 10:51 am

        Trump isn’t winning by anything! LOL!

        Reply

      • Rob

        September 29, 2024 at 1:23 pm

        Please go back to sleep. The Wellbutrin is giving you vivid dreams again.

        Reply

  • KathrynA

    September 26, 2024 at 3:24 pm

    Best news on this hurricane day. Can you imagine how things could change if Harris is elected and we also get a Democratic senator. It’s such a dismal state–always browbeating and angry about things that might help the quality of life for everyone. It wasn’t this way when we moved here 37 years ago and Gov. Chiles and Gov. Bush tried to do things for the good of the people..

    Reply

    • Jason

      September 26, 2024 at 5:19 pm

      Yes Kathryn that would be nice if Kamala could get Florida. I guess people in Florida are waking up to Trump’s lies. Trump won that state is the last two elections. I also saw where all of the Teamster members in Florida were supporting Kamala! Time to turn the page.

      Reply

    • Jason

      September 26, 2024 at 6:35 pm

      Kamala is making gains in Florida. That’s a good sign. It says that people are fed with Trump’s lies!

      Reply

    • Bobblehead Kammy

      September 26, 2024 at 9:07 pm

      Just imagine for a moment if Andrew Gillum were Governor of Florida. What a sorry state of affairs we would be in. He does throw great drug parties though staffed with male hookers. Boy did we dodge a bullet there. Thank God for the Repub voters out there.

      Reply

      • Ocean Joe

        September 28, 2024 at 7:54 pm

        He would have been unable to accomplish much with a Republican legislature, but you can be sure we would have been spared all the division over schools, masks, Disney, tranny story time, a thousand pointless trips to Iowa, kidnapping migrants to Martha’s Vineyard, sending 50 cops to Texas, and the potential of turning pristine state wildlands into golf courses and pickleball courts. Florida would still be Florida, not Mississippi-lite.

        Reply

        • Ocean Joe

          September 28, 2024 at 7:55 pm

          I suspect Andrew would have used the governor’s office to denounce the nazis who showed up in Orlando, Jacksonville, and Tampa, instead of silence.

          Reply

      • Stop The DeSantards

        October 3, 2024 at 2:53 pm

        That was 6 years ago (a different century politically); plus WTF does that have to with the Harris campaign?

        Reply

  • Michael K

    September 26, 2024 at 3:50 pm

    More than 40 million Gen Z young people (19-28) are eligible to vote. Nearly 400,000 of these people were directly impacted by mass shootings at their schools, and all have had to endure active shooter drills. And, these young women have fewer rights than their mothers, thanks to Trump’s radical right-wing Supreme Court.

    Do you think they are paying attention to, or listening to, a racist, crazy, angry old man who spews lies? Half of this generation are bi-racial or people of color. Do the math. The generational tide is shifting.

    That’s partly why Republicans are making it more difficult register to vote – and to vote.

    Reply

    • Jason

      September 26, 2024 at 5:16 pm

      Exactly. The Republican Party is a shell of its former self thanks to Trump!

      Reply

      • Ocean Joe

        September 28, 2024 at 7:56 pm

        Do not underestimate a cornered rat!

        Reply

  • Jason

    September 26, 2024 at 5:32 pm

    That would be nice if she could get Florida. That was a state that Trump won twice. Hopefully Floridians are waking up to Trump’s lies.

    Reply

  • Cindy

    September 29, 2024 at 7:20 pm

    Putin and Wagner isn’t helping this fall. Either is the lizards or the gang anonymous. Gonna call.

    Pamal is a disability Case
    And everyone is a fraud

    Reply

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