Rick Scott leads Debbie Mucarsel-Powell by 2 points in latest poll

Rick Scott Debbie Mucarsel-Powell SBS AP
The Independent Center vote said the incumbent's lead will shrink if a strong third option emerges before November.

Republican U.S. Sen. Rick Scott holds a mere 2-point lead over Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in a poll by the Independent Center. That puts the incumbent’s lead within the poll’s margin of error.

The Independent Center surveyed likely voters in three Southern swing states and included Florida’s high-profile U.S. Senate contest in the mix.

It found 46% of likely voters planning to support Scott, 44% intending to vote for Mucarsel-Powell and the remainder of voters still on the fence.

That’s a bigger lead than Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump enjoys over Democratic nominee Kamala Harris in the state, according to the same poll. But Scott has a lower share of the votes than Trump. Neither Republican clears a critical 50% threshold.

The poll’s Florida results have a 4-percentage-point margin of error.

Pollsters also asked how voters would split if a strong independent or third-party candidate emerged. The scenario winnowed Scott’s lead. Without having a specific third option named, about 43% say they would vote to re-elect Scott, while 42% say they would support Mucarsel-Powell and 4% say they would vote for the third candidate. Of note, the number of undecided voters grows in this scenario from 10% to 11%.

While no minor candidate has emerged to date as a viable option, several other candidates will appear on the General Election ballot for U.S. Senate in Florida. Libertarian Feenan Bonoan will have a line, as will Ben Everidge and Tuan Nguyen, who are both running without party affiliation. Howard Knepper also qualified as a write-in candidate.

Republicans hold an edge on a generic ballot test in congressional districts as well, according to the poll. About 43% of voters statewide intend to vote Republican in their local U.S. House race, and 41% will vote Democrat, with 6% saying they will vote for an independent or third-party candidate if given the chance. Polling data broken down by congressional district was not available.

Jacob Ogles

Jacob Ogles has covered politics in Florida since 2000 for regional outlets including SRQ Magazine in Sarasota, The News-Press in Fort Myers and The Daily Commercial in Leesburg. His work has appeared nationally in The Advocate, Wired and other publications. Events like SRQ’s Where The Votes Are workshops made Ogles one of Southwest Florida’s most respected political analysts, and outlets like WWSB ABC 7 and WSRQ Sarasota have featured his insights. He can be reached at [email protected].


19 comments

  • Ocean Joe

    September 26, 2024 at 12:46 pm

    Smells like the slipperiest thing in the swamp is going to slip through again.

    Reply

  • Billy Rotberg

    September 26, 2024 at 1:04 pm

    Debbie Mucarsel-Powell Gets funded by a warlord in the Ukraine.

    Reply

    • MH/Duuuval

      September 26, 2024 at 1:59 pm

      More Tommy rot and not based on fact.

      Reply

      • Billy Rotberg

        September 26, 2024 at 4:08 pm

        “Debbie Mucarsel-Powell has taken nearly $10,000 in campaign contributions from the employees and agents
        of a Ukranian warlord who was sued – and also investigated by the FBI – for allegedly stealing hundreds of
        millions of dollars and laundering it in the United States – and billions of dollars globally – in a shell
        company, loan fraud, real estate purchasing scheme.”
        Google it.

        Reply

    • Claus

      September 28, 2024 at 2:43 pm

      One of the famous fake news from MAGA

      Reply

      • Rick and JD's Gay man sex emporium

        September 30, 2024 at 11:29 am

        Facts are not fake news, Libturd

        Reply

      • Rick and JD's Gay man sex emporium

        September 30, 2024 at 11:31 am

        Facts are not fake news.

        Reply

  • Cheesy Floridian

    September 27, 2024 at 4:18 pm

    Vote Scott out. Vote for Debbie

    Reply

    • nail

      September 28, 2024 at 9:03 am

      There was no FEMA and the MAGATs took it out of the bill, when the Dems read they saw the F MAGATs took it out of the bill on Wed..
      Scott and Gaetz knew the bill had to be signed Wed. but they both left and did not sign the billl..
      Fuc** they want all MAGATas to die..
      Dems should have never saved these MAGATA again. let them suffer in DeFascist tent camps…..I do hope trump wins because they will be living on the street .with no Social Security or Medicare…If Harris doesn’t get in their is no one to save them from MAGATards from taking everything away from these idiots…
      F** idiots!!

      Reply

      • SallyB

        September 29, 2024 at 1:58 am

        Your writing, poor sentence structure, misspelling, and grammar makes your comment here illegible and the thought you were attempting to convey, incoherent. That is why America’s Governor, Ron DeSantis, who is the most principled leader in a generation and the most effective Florida governor ever, stresses education over indoctrination. When I was in college, even the neo-Marxists knew how to write in a coherent manner.

        Reply

        • Aunt Fussbuster

          September 29, 2024 at 12:47 pm

          “Illegible” is the wrong word. Illegible refers to writing that is physically not clear — as in terrible handwriting. Incoherent is the word you could have used, although you do use it at the end of the sentence, so dropping “illegible” and tightening up the sentence would also work.
          When you want to play English teacher, your word choice needs to be perfect, not near-miss.
          That said, while I do not agree that DeSantis “stresses education over indoctrination” — quite the opposite, in my opinion — the writer, “nail,” is indeed incoherent.

          Reply

        • Cheesy Floridian

          September 29, 2024 at 1:15 pm

          America’s Governor? he is definitely not America’s governor. He is the most slimy “leader” Florida has ever seen and is sneaky and doesn’t like freedom unless you agree with him. He sucks and so do you for supporting him

          Reply

        • Rick Whitaker

          September 29, 2024 at 7:59 pm

          SALLY, no one gives a damn about what you think, church-lady.

          Reply

          • Rick and JD's Gay man sex emporium

            September 30, 2024 at 11:26 am

            You do, that’s why you replied

  • nail

    September 28, 2024 at 8:56 am

    Debbie Signed he bill so all the MAGATArds would get money from FEMA…Rick Scott would not sign it a left Wednesday a day early because he waned the MAGATs to suffer and watch their homes float down the street…
    Gaetz left will him…
    NEITHER ONES WOULD SIGN THE BILL AND THERE WAS NO FUNDS FOR FL. Bothe Sid F you MAGATs. the more abuse they give you the setter you like it. What a bunch of weak miserable schmuck…
    The Dems should NOTt have given the money to FL, Let them all Suffer from now on…The lake to be treated like animal left them live in tents…

    Reply

    • SallyB

      September 29, 2024 at 2:07 am

      If Stalin were alive, you’d make him blush with your lack of civility and your psychopathic desire for political violence. I pray your local psychiatric hospital can protect the rest of society from the likes of you or a nearby law enforcement officer can take appropriate action before you can carry out an act of political violence your deranged comments are advocating.

      Reply

      • Rick Whitaker

        September 29, 2024 at 7:57 pm

        SALLY, don’t be stupid, there is no god, so why do you pray. Foolish maga christian i presume

        Reply

      • Rick and JD's Gay man sex emporium

        September 30, 2024 at 11:27 am

        Rick was abused sexually so he’s not mentally stable.

        Reply

        • rick whitaker

          September 30, 2024 at 7:16 pm

          MAGA MARK , you believe in jesus and trump, so your talent for not knowing shit from a hole in the ground is showing. both jesus and trump belief is primarily for low information superstitious people, like you.

          Reply

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