Peter Schorsch
Coming off a 2014 election cycle that provided few bright spots for Florida Democrats, insiders are buzzing at the prospect of an open U.S. Senate seat, presuming Marco Rubio seeks the presidency, rather than re-election. Speculation over potential candidates for that seat on the Democratic side have been all over the map. U.S. Reps Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Alan Grayson, Patrick Murphy, and even barely sworn-in Gwen Graham have all been rumored as candidates.
Each have unique challenges that could inhibit nascent campaigns.
- Wasserman Schultz, once the golden child of big money Democrats has taken some blows amongst that group of insiders with Obama-world, off-the-record talkers trashing her in Politico and elsewhere. And her very public opposition to the 2014 medical marijuana initiative puts her at odds with her party’s base on an issue that may be back on the ballot in 2016.
- Grayson is, well, Grayson. His brand of fire-breathing liberalism is going to make a viable general election campaign tough, to say the least.
- Murphy, on the other hand, is widely viewed as the strongest candidate in a general election — a young, attractive, prolific fundraiser who just won re-election handily in a tough district. But Murphy’s savvy handling of his re-election came at the expense of taking some votes that were good in his district but not as good in the context of a Democratic primary.
- And Graham is still so new to Congress that, while she is clearly a rising star, it will be very difficult to make that leap without at least a full term (and a re-election campaign) under her belt.
Now chatter is centering on yet another potential candidate: Ted Deutch. Deutch may well be the dark horse on the Democratic side of the aisle. Elected in a special election to replace longtime Congressman Robert Wexler in 2010, Deutch has quietly built a strong profile for himself in Congress, in addition to a fundraising base that could make a statewide campaign viable, should he choose to give up his safe seat in the House.
Deutch, a Jewish member of Congress, sits as the top Democrat in the House on the Middle East Subcommittee and he is known as one of the strongest and most articulate pro-Israel voices. That makes Deutch a natural to dominate the voter-rich condos in South Florida in the Democratic primary. (And would seriously complicate Wasserman Schultz’s path if she were to enter the race). Deutch would similarly appeal to the Democratic voters in a primary with traditionally liberal support of campaign finance reform, reproductive rights and labor issues.
Republicans are ready and waiting to target the Democratic candidate as too liberal, but Deutch’s more temperate political approach makes him much harder for the Florida GOP to define as too left wing for Florida. Deutch has strong national security credentials that would appeal to independents in the general election.
Craig Smith, former political director of the Clinton White House and director of the Ready for Hillary Super PAC said, “Deutch would be a strong candidate in both a primary and a general. He’s hardworking, disciplined and has a great vote and money base to kick off a campaign from.”
Republican insiders, too, are watching Deutch. “He doesn’t get talked about like Wasserman Schultz or others but Deutch would certainly be a force in a primary, and a credible general election candidate, even though he is ultimately too much of a traditional tax-and-spend liberal to win the race,” longtime Republican operative Jesse Manzano-Plaza said.
The likelihood of Deutch running seems to be predicated on Rubio’s decision. His district is safe and running for statewide office is a big political risk. And he also needs to launch a campaign with a strong message saying why he wants the job.
“If Ted can effectively make the case to voters why they should give him this promotion to Senate and raise the funds to communicate that case, he would be a strong candidate for Democrats in 2016,” Smith said.
