Poll: Donald Trump holds 4-point lead in Florida, but trails significantly with independents

Former President Donald Trump still leads in the Sunshine State, where younger, White and Latino voters prefer him over Vice President Kamala Harris, according to newly released polling data.

Marist Poll surveyed 1,510 Florida adults Oct. 3-7 by phone, text and online. Of them, 1,257 say they will definitely vote in this year’s General Election. The poll had a 3.6-percentage-point margin of error.

Among likely voters, including those still undecided but leaning toward a candidate, 51% say they support Trump compared to 47% who side with Harris.

Eighty-eight percent with a preference say they strongly support their chosen candidate. Notably, Harris holds a significant lead (55%-41%) among independents. That’s a margin larger than President Joe Biden enjoyed in 2020.

As he did four years ago, Trump still carries stronger favor among White voters, but to a markedly lesser degree. In 2020, 62% of White voters supported him. Pollsters found that support now sits at 53% — still greater than Harris’ 45%.

Trump is also surging with Latino voters, of whom 58% say they’re backing him, up from 46% in 2020. Just 40% say the same for Harris.

Meanwhile, 76% of Black voters are behind the Vice President, with Trump taking the remainder. In 2020, Biden had 89% support from Black Floridians.

Trump leads among men (55%) while Harris is ahead with women (51%), a far narrower divide than the 12-point gender gap that existed between Trump and Biden in 2020.

The poll found Generation X, Millennial and Generation Z voters who say they’re certain to cast ballots by Nov. 5 are likelier to do so for Trump than his Democratic foe. Fifty-six percent of Gen X sides with Trump, compared to 52% of Millennials and Gen Z respondents.

Baby boomers (52%-48%) and members of the Silent Generation (50%-48%) are leaning more toward Harris.

“Trump leads Harris in the contest for Florida’s 30th electoral votes,” said Dr. Lee Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, “although the state is competitive.”

Most Floridians are now decided on the race. Marist found that 90% of likely voters in Florida have their minds made up. Eight percent say they have a good idea whom they’ll choose, but may change their mind, and 2% are still on the proverbial fence.

Harris backers (93%) are more likely than Trump supporters (89%) to say they won’t change their mind.

A whopping 97% of likely Florida voters say they’ll vote in the presidential race. The remainder said they’ll skip it, but vote in other races and for ballot measures.

Asked what they consider to be the biggest issue ahead of this year’s General Election, 29% say inflation, while 25% say preserving democracy is most important. Eighteen percent point to immigration as the No. 1 issue, while 13% mention abortion and 8% say health care is top-of-mind.

The war in the Middle East and crime ranked far lower at 4% and 3%, respectively.

Florida voters are split on whether having a candidate who is a strong leader or who is honest and trustworthy is most important. Half of all likely voters surveyed say one or the other was vital, while 18% say they want a candidate with whom they most agree on key issues. Another 12% most prefer a candidate who can effect change at the national level.

Trump beats Harris among respondents who most value a strong leader, someone who shares their position on the issues or can bring about change; however, Harris outperforms the ex-President among those who prefer an honest and trustworthy leader or someone who shares their values.

In terms of favorability, Trump is ahead. Forty-nine percent of adults statewide express a favorable opinion of the Republican candidate, while 47% view him unfavorably. Harris receives a 46% favorability rating compared to 50% unfavorable.

Trump’s lead in Florida is outdone in Ohio and Texas, where Marist pollsters found the Republican leading Harris by 6- and 7-point margins, respectively.