Jesse Scheckner
Former President Donald Trump still leads in the Sunshine State, where younger, White and Latino voters prefer him over Vice President Kamala Harris, according to newly released polling data.
Marist Poll surveyed 1,510 Florida adults Oct. 3-7 by phone, text and online. Of them, 1,257 say they will definitely vote in this year’s General Election. The poll had a 3.6-percentage-point margin of error.
Among likely voters, including those still undecided but leaning toward a candidate, 51% say they support Trump compared to 47% who side with Harris.
Eighty-eight percent with a preference say they strongly support their chosen candidate. Notably, Harris holds a significant lead (55%-41%) among independents. That’s a margin larger than President Joe Biden enjoyed in 2020.
As he did four years ago, Trump still carries stronger favor among White voters, but to a markedly lesser degree. In 2020, 62% of White voters supported him. Pollsters found that support now sits at 53% — still greater than Harris’ 45%.
Trump is also surging with Latino voters, of whom 58% say they’re backing him, up from 46% in 2020. Just 40% say the same for Harris.
Meanwhile, 76% of Black voters are behind the Vice President, with Trump taking the remainder. In 2020, Biden had 89% support from Black Floridians.
Trump leads among men (55%) while Harris is ahead with women (51%), a far narrower divide than the 12-point gender gap that existed between Trump and Biden in 2020.
The poll found Generation X, Millennial and Generation Z voters who say they’re certain to cast ballots by Nov. 5 are likelier to do so for Trump than his Democratic foe. Fifty-six percent of Gen X sides with Trump, compared to 52% of Millennials and Gen Z respondents.
Baby boomers (52%-48%) and members of the Silent Generation (50%-48%) are leaning more toward Harris.
“Trump leads Harris in the contest for Florida’s 30th electoral votes,” said Dr. Lee Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, “although the state is competitive.”
Most Floridians are now decided on the race. Marist found that 90% of likely voters in Florida have their minds made up. Eight percent say they have a good idea whom they’ll choose, but may change their mind, and 2% are still on the proverbial fence.
Harris backers (93%) are more likely than Trump supporters (89%) to say they won’t change their mind.
A whopping 97% of likely Florida voters say they’ll vote in the presidential race. The remainder said they’ll skip it, but vote in other races and for ballot measures.
Asked what they consider to be the biggest issue ahead of this year’s General Election, 29% say inflation, while 25% say preserving democracy is most important. Eighteen percent point to immigration as the No. 1 issue, while 13% mention abortion and 8% say health care is top-of-mind.
The war in the Middle East and crime ranked far lower at 4% and 3%, respectively.
Florida voters are split on whether having a candidate who is a strong leader or who is honest and trustworthy is most important. Half of all likely voters surveyed say one or the other was vital, while 18% say they want a candidate with whom they most agree on key issues. Another 12% most prefer a candidate who can effect change at the national level.
Trump beats Harris among respondents who most value a strong leader, someone who shares their position on the issues or can bring about change; however, Harris outperforms the ex-President among those who prefer an honest and trustworthy leader or someone who shares their values.
In terms of favorability, Trump is ahead. Forty-nine percent of adults statewide express a favorable opinion of the Republican candidate, while 47% view him unfavorably. Harris receives a 46% favorability rating compared to 50% unfavorable.
Trump’s lead in Florida is outdone in Ohio and Texas, where Marist pollsters found the Republican leading Harris by 6- and 7-point margins, respectively.
14 comments
Bobblehead Kammy
October 11, 2024 at 5:03 am
Standing by for PeterH in 3,2,1 claimin he is an independent. Hilarious 🤣
The Cat In The MAGA Hat
October 12, 2024 at 6:52 am
You get wet Trump slimy dreams today
60 minutes is fake
October 11, 2024 at 6:20 am
Will Florida Politics have any articles or comment about the 60 minutes edit of the Kammy word salad?
PeterH
October 11, 2024 at 7:38 am
Join disaffected Republicans and Independent voters like myself at the Lincoln Project! Independent voters decide elections in the USA. We make up America’s SECOND PARTY OF CHOICE after Democrats. Republicans rank in third place. Independent voters will not be voting for a chronic liar, twice impeached, convicted felon whose presidency sets a horrible role model for America’s youth.
Republicans are America’s worst enemy!
Vote all Republicans out of office.
60 minutes is fake
October 11, 2024 at 9:46 am
So says the phony independent. Just like fake 60 minutes.
Ines
October 13, 2024 at 11:07 am
👍
Phil Morton
October 11, 2024 at 8:46 am
Democrats and NPAs are making up 63% of voter turnout so far. Looks good for Harris but a long way to go.
Michael K
October 11, 2024 at 10:12 am
Trump is terrified of fact-checkers for good reason, and especially afraid of debating Harris. He’s a coward (like most bullies) and has always been adverse to the truth. Astonishingly, a good chunk of the MAGA party believes that the government can control the weather and that immigrants are eating pets. That’s how far the party has fallen into the dark abyss. The world is indeed laughing at Trump and his vision of American carnage.
This election presents a clear choice, and reasonable people — Republicans, Independents, NPAs, and Democrats – all have good reason to support Vice President Harris and her focus on strengthening the middle class: Decency over chaos, competency and fidelity to the Constitution and the rule of law, over fealty to a lying old narcissist who treats governance like a third-rate TV game show. It’s straightforward.
60 minutes is fake
October 11, 2024 at 10:42 am
Trump is not afraid of debating Kammy. It’s a stacked deck though and he knows it. Just look at how the moderators handled the Trump and Kammy debate. They fact checked him five times and nothing for Kammy. Then look at how CBS conducted the VP debate. Brennan fact check Vance and that was a violation of the ROE and he called her out. Now Kammy definitely beat Trump on that debate. It makes one wonder though if she and her team were tipped off on the questions that were going to be asked because every interview she has done since then has been word salad from Kammy. She simply can’t think on her feet. Now we have the 60 minutes editing job that is yet further proof that the fake media is in the tank for Kammy. I’ll bet that the Dana Bash sit down with Kammy and No Balz was heavily edited as well.
Ines
October 13, 2024 at 11:11 am
You are brain dead.
QUEMALA created inflation , illegal invasion and 2 wars.
Denying reality will lead you to hell
Michael K
October 11, 2024 at 12:19 pm
Here’s the thing about fat-checkers: Don’t lie and you don’t have to be afraid of the truth!
Michael K
October 11, 2024 at 5:22 pm
Fact-checkers. But still: don’t lie if you don’t want to be fact-checked. Simple.
And BTW: Trump even refused to debate on Fox “news.” He’s a coward.
Ines
October 13, 2024 at 11:18 am
Fact checkers did not exist until the truth started to come out.
If you have a working brain, you will notice the fact checkers twisting the truth to come up with their bias lies.
Trump has been right on EVERYTHING from the Russian hoax and on but you live in an upside down world. Where killing a baby is procreation, censoring of speech and media bias is democracy .
Vote Trump to save our Trpublic from the insane, corrupt and criminal democrats
Christopher Rider Davis
October 16, 2024 at 11:16 am
Fact checking has existed since the early 1900’s. Please stop pushing the maga lies. It’s getting old and only works on the weak minded.
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