A.G. Gancarski
Presidential candidate and short-term McDonald’s fry cook Donald Trump has supersized his lead in polling against Kamala Harris.
And “blurters” are partly why, claims the pollster.
According to a survey of 977 likely voters conducted by the University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL) from Oct. 7 through Oct. 18, the Republican Presidential nominee has one of his biggest leads in any Sunshine State survey, with only a New York Times poll from earlier this month exceeding it.
Trump has 53% support, 10 points ahead of Harris in a statistical rebuke to Democrats who insist that Florida is in play in the presidential race.
And one unconventionally articulate group is driving margin.
“Prior research tells us that the folks who blurt out their candidate vote choice and then hang up are very likely to vote, and most of those ‘blurters’ are Trump supporters. This might help explain why his lead widened to 10 points, up from 7 in our last poll back in July,” says poll director Michael Binder.
In this survey, Trump is stronger with registered Democrats than Harris is with Republicans, a phenomenon that bolsters the former President over the current Veep, along with a GOP active registered voter edge of more than 1.1 million votes.
Trump has 94% of Republicans on lock, +88 over Harris. Meanwhile, Trump takes 8% of Democrats, with Harris only +80 in her own party.
The lopsided top line lends itself to other statistical anomalies in the GOP candidate’s favor.
Trump is up with women, 49% to 48%. He’s up double-digits with Hispanics, 55% to 41%. He leads in all age groups. He’s +24 with people who didn’t vote in 2020.
His canny positioning on Florida’s abortion amendment has also paid off, as he’s rhetorically triangulated, opposing the push for untrammeled abortion rights while criticizing the ban on the procedure after six weeks of pregnancy. He takes 29% of pro-choice voters, just 37 points behind Harris.
Meanwhile, she’s -80 with pro-lifers, eking out just 8% with that conservative cohort.
3 comments
My Take
October 21, 2024 at 5:19 am
I’ll bet he’s well ahead with droolers too.
Bobble head Kammy
October 21, 2024 at 5:26 am
Red Storm Rising. Please wash away Debbie Wasserman-Schultz.
Ron Ogden
October 21, 2024 at 5:26 am
As the top of the ticket goes, the bottom of the ticket goes. One is forced to wonder if the Florida Democratic Party survives past November.
If you D’s wonder why this disaster is being visited upon you, the answer is simple: as always has been the case, you are enthralled with your own picture, as reflected in the mirror of Manhattan and Washington and Hollywood. Florida needs a strong Democratic Party–without it our two-party system fails. But to be a strong party you have to get rid of this over-intellectualized, confrontational, holier-than-thou, super-technocrat, progressive-ist attitude and get down to talking about real people and real issues. You have to moderate your policies and calm your rhetoric. If you do that, the results will not be immediate, but the Republican Party eventually will come back to center, too, and together we can help solve the really frightening problems that loom for our state and nation.