GOP registration edge, Latino supporters drive Rick Scott narrow lead in re-election bid

Florida’s junior Senator may want to thank the Republican Party for robust registration gains since his last campaign.

According to new polling from the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL), Rick Scott is on track to eke out a narrow victory over Democratic challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, and it may come down to there simply being more Republicans than Democrats voting.

Scott is up 49% to 46%, a margin that is exactly half his six-point average lead, per Real Clear Politics. That spread is due to the GOP registration advantage reflected in the survey.

Among the 400 Republicans polled, Scott leads 86% to 8%, with 1% picking someone else and 4% undecided.

While Scott is +78 with his party, Mucarsel-Powell is doing better with Democrats: +81.

The problem for the former one-term member of Congress, though, is there aren’t enough of them.

While she has 90% support in her party, with Scott garnering 9% and 1% on the fence, only 368 Dems were surveyed, reflecting a GOP active registered voter edge of more than 1.1 million votes.

Independents are with the insurgents, 51% to 40%, 7% not knowing who they support, and 1% opting for someone else.

One potential positive for the incumbent in the data is that those agnostic voters are likelier to go with Scott by a 37% to 25% margin, perhaps reflecting the gap in low-information voters’ awareness of the two candidates.

Another positive for Scott, and the potential difference maker in this data set, is his ability to stave off his Ecuadorian-American challenger’s support with Latinos.

Scott, who has trumpeted coalitions of members of various Hispanic immigrant communities this cycle, is up 58% to 37% with them, which is marginally better than the 56% support he has among white voters.