A.G. Gancarski
Florida’s junior Senator may want to thank the Republican Party for robust registration gains since his last campaign.
According to new polling from the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL), Rick Scott is on track to eke out a narrow victory over Democratic challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, and it may come down to there simply being more Republicans than Democrats voting.
Scott is up 49% to 46%, a margin that is exactly half his six-point average lead, per Real Clear Politics. That spread is due to the GOP registration advantage reflected in the survey.
Among the 400 Republicans polled, Scott leads 86% to 8%, with 1% picking someone else and 4% undecided.
While Scott is +78 with his party, Mucarsel-Powell is doing better with Democrats: +81.
The problem for the former one-term member of Congress, though, is there aren’t enough of them.
While she has 90% support in her party, with Scott garnering 9% and 1% on the fence, only 368 Dems were surveyed, reflecting a GOP active registered voter edge of more than 1.1 million votes.
Independents are with the insurgents, 51% to 40%, 7% not knowing who they support, and 1% opting for someone else.
One potential positive for the incumbent in the data is that those agnostic voters are likelier to go with Scott by a 37% to 25% margin, perhaps reflecting the gap in low-information voters’ awareness of the two candidates.
Another positive for Scott, and the potential difference maker in this data set, is his ability to stave off his Ecuadorian-American challenger’s support with Latinos.
Scott, who has trumpeted coalitions of members of various Hispanic immigrant communities this cycle, is up 58% to 37% with them, which is marginally better than the 56% support he has among white voters.
13 comments
Bobble head Kammy
October 21, 2024 at 5:35 am
Debbie was never a serious challenger to Rick Scott. Like him or hate him, the two term Florida Governor and now US Senator would be difficult to defeat. Murcasel-Powell is a two year congressman from Dade County that was ousted by her Latino constituents. If she couldn’t win there she cerystood no chance of winning statewide. Like I have been saying all along, bye bye Debbie. MH knew she was gonna lose too.
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Ocean Joe
October 21, 2024 at 1:09 pm
Still waiting for you to say something nice about Ricky. Or anybody else, for that matter.
MHDuuuval
October 21, 2024 at 1:51 pm
Please, citizen, don’t ask Peachy to do the impossible.
Demetries Grimes, CDR USN Ret
October 21, 2024 at 6:03 am
The reason there are fewer Democratic voters in Florida is that many Floridians, particularly those from Hispanic communities that fled authoritarian leftist regimes, reject the policies of the Democratic Party. These voters see the Democratic platform as embracing positions that threaten their values, including what they view as hostility toward Constitutional rights, open border policies, the decriminalization of violent crime, higher taxes, increased regulation, the erosion of U.S. energy independence, and lower standards and reduced choices in education. DMP’s positions on these issues, along with her embrace of the Democratic Party that promotes them, will only harm Floridians and fellow Americans.
MHDuuuval
October 21, 2024 at 9:34 am
Mr. Grimes: In short, you prefer an autocratic, right-wing nanny state such as that in Florida today.
In the specific case of Rick Scott: He is isolated from real life by his ill-gotten wealth and adolescent trauma from being temporarily impoverished and living in public housing.
Scott has been outspoken in his attacks on Social Security and Medicare and, while Governor, he refused to support the expansion of Medicaid. He was the first chief executive in Florida to censor language relating to the environment.
The attack on the civil liberties and civll rights has accelerated under MAGA governance . Are you prepared for a partisan litmus test for government service, including the military?
It’s ironic that someone claiming to be a retired military officer would be opposed to the government assisting those in need when his entire work life was spent in a socialistic, hierarchical environment.
Ocean Joe
October 21, 2024 at 5:42 pm
CDR Grimes, first of all, thank you for running for congress.
Second, if these voters believe as you say, they have been misled, no doubt rightwing Spanish radio has been largely responsible, just as Fox works hard to push its agenda to rightwing voters.
Your allegation of “decriminalization of violent crime” is a good example of that. You know better than that, dont you?
Flashers
October 21, 2024 at 8:34 am
Why do voters want to reelect a multi millionaire that stole from the government, votes against his constituents and really doesn’t give a damn about them. Come on people.. do ur research. Scott is a con artist like the rest of MAGA. He will deport you in a flash
MHDuuuval
October 21, 2024 at 10:29 am
Men are men, women are women, and unborn babies are babies. We believe in science: Men and women are biologically different, “male and female He created them.”
— from Scott’s 12-Point Plan to Rescue America
I believe in science, too, but who is this “He” that Trick Scott refers to?
ScienceBLVR
October 21, 2024 at 12:57 pm
$&!t Scott Science Believer? I think not!
The science of making money defrauding the Federal Government and using the proceeds to buy elections, …maybe.
Ocean Joe
October 21, 2024 at 1:05 pm
To paraphrase Ronald Reagan: A rising tide lifts all boats and floods a lot of homes.
The problem with Republican/Maga views on shrinking government is that when so many Floridians are hurting, many financially devastated, the party of the wealthy is silent. Rick Scott runs around but delivers very little. Protect the insurance companies while they low ball consumers. This is what you voted for, so enjoy!
Ocean Joe
October 21, 2024 at 1:07 pm
And continue the fraud that climate change and the stronger storms it brings is all a hoax. Let your grandchildren deal with it because dealing with it now gets in the way of hoarding wealth and cheap gasoline.
MHDuuuval
October 21, 2024 at 1:30 pm
The party of the wealthy is quick to try to impose “austerity” on the voters who pay taxes, but do not give large campaign constitutions.
This is how they are approaching Social Security and Medicare — not head on, but back stabbing.
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