UNF poll shows Florida abortion rights initiative right on the line of passage

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A new poll shows support for Amendment 4 is at 60%, just enough to pass in the Nov. 5 election.

“Since campaigning has picked up against the amendment, support for abortion protection has dropped from 69% of likely voters back in July,” University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab’s (PORL) faculty director and political science professor Michael Binder said in a prepared statement.

“Now, just barely reaching the 60% it needs to pass, it looks like the fate of abortion in Florida will come down to turnout on Election Day.”

About 32% are against it while 8% of voters are still undecided about Amendment 4, according to the survey taken Oct. 7-18.

The margin of sampling error is +/- 3.49 percentage points for the poll that asked 977 likely Florida voters several questions, including their presidential preferences.

The new Amendment 4 poll sets the stage for what will be a tight election. It’s already been a fierce fight with multiple lawsuits, as state leaders openly campaign against the ballot initiative.

About 5% of Democrats are undecided, as are 10% of Republicans and 7% of independents, the poll found.

About 84% of Democrats, 38% of Republicans and 66% of Independents say they support Amendment 4, the poll found. 

The poll dove deeper into the abortion issue and asked how people felt about the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision, which ruled that the U.S. Constitution does not protect the right to an abortion and ended the landmark Roe v. Wade case.

The poll found 46% disagree with Dobbs “either strongly or somewhat,” while 42% say they agree with the decision. Another 11% are unsure of their stance and 2% refused to answer the question, according to the poll.

The UNF PORL survey also asked about people’s personal beliefs on abortion.

About 56% describe themselves as pro-choice, while 34% say they are pro-life, 7% say they fall somewhere in the middle and 2% unsure or declining to answer.

“It’s interesting that a majority of independents and over a third of Republicans identify as pro choice,” Binder added. “Even more, 24% of people who said they are pro-life also said they would vote ‘yes,’ on Amendment 4. Now, some might say that’s just confusion about the ballot summary language, but we see the same thing among pro-lifers when 29% said they disagree with the Dobbs decision.”

Florida currently has a six-week abortion ban for most pregnancies. Amendment 4 seeks to enshrine additional abortion rights protections in the state constitution, likely undoing that ban.