Associated Press
With former President Donald Trump’s encouragement, Republicans are voting early again, flocking to the polls for in-person voting ahead of Election Day and helping break records for ballots cast before November in key states like Georgia and North Carolina.
The GOP hopes this will fix a mechanical problem that some in the party blame for costing it the 2020 presidential and key 2022 elections. Campaigns usually want their voters to cast ballots ahead of Election Day so they can focus their resources on getting more marginal supporters to the polls at the last minute.
Republicans excelled at that before Trump turned against mail voting in 2020, spinning wild conspiracies about the centuries-old process and convincing his supporters to wait until Election Day to cast their ballots. But the party is again pushing its voters to cast their ballots early, and the former President is largely encouraging the change.
“I am telling everyone to vote early,” Trump said on a radio show last week hosted by conservative Dan Bongino, who has widely spread false information about early voting and the 2020 election.
Republicans seem to be responding. In North Carolina, where in 2022 Democrats had an edge of more than 30 percentage points of the vote at this point in 2022, they are only ahead by 1 percentage point this year. In Nevada, where Democrats for decades relied on a robust early vote to counter the GOP on Election Day, about 1,000 more Republicans have actually cast early ballots this year than Democrats.
It’s unclear what this means for the election, however. The early vote data only reveals whether voters are registered with a party, not who they are voting for. The early electorate can change from day to day as more and more people vote early. And what seem like demographic trends in early vote can suddenly disappear once Election Day votes are factored in.
It is still very early in the voting process — the last of the seven swing states, Wisconsin, kicked off its early voting Tuesday morning. Parties can run up leads in the early vote and then see them vanish on Election Day because all their supporters have already cast ballots and the other side has not.
“The Democrats are still, as far as I can tell, banking more early votes. It’s just less of a disadvantage for Republicans,” said Michael McDonald, a political scientist at the University of Florida who carefully tracks the early vote. But, McDonald cautioned, “we don’t know if this is a shifting of furniture yet or an added strength for Republicans.”
One thing is clear — the return to bipartisan early voting has helped bust records. North Carolina and Georgia both reported record turnout on the first day of in-person early voting, and it’s spilled over into states that aren’t competitive at the presidential level, like South Carolina, which reported its own record when it opened early voting Monday.
Republicans seem to still have an aversion to mail balloting. They’ve improved their share of the mail vote in several states but still lag behind Democrats, particularly in Pennsylvania, where there is no in-person early option and Republicans have sent in more than 300,000 fewer mail ballots than Democrats. But the GOP is making up ground by voting early in-person in most competitive states.
Still, years of sowing conspiracies about early and mail voting have taken a toll on the conservative electorate. At Elon Musk’s first solo event in support of Trump last week, he encouraged the crowd to vote early, an entreaty that some in the audience responded to by shouting back, “Why?”
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Republished with permission of The Associated Press.
19 comments
Jason
October 22, 2024 at 3:22 pm
Strictness is not a good policy.
It’s like excessive criticism abuse
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October 23, 2024 at 2:56 am
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Billy Rotberg
October 22, 2024 at 4:01 pm
It’s looking like a red senate in 2024.
Bobblehead Kammy
October 22, 2024 at 4:45 pm
Well if Kammy wins that will offset her and her liberal agenda. A taste of what Pelosi did to Trump. Karma Demos?
Two Birds With One Stone
October 22, 2024 at 5:29 pm
Tropical Storm Patty will seal Republican fate,this is why Republicans should vote on election day instead of early voting, Democrats you get two votes,one for Florida and Colorado,who wins the national votes get Colorado Electors Google Colorado National Popular Vote Electors
Billy Rotberg
October 22, 2024 at 8:07 pm
So you are drooling over a hurricane that will hurt both democrats and Republicans alike. Wow! You people really are desperate and petty. I just hope everyone is OK. But YOU PEOPLE see it as a political benefit. That affirms why I’ll never vote blue even if you pointed a gun at me. Thanks for the confirmation!
Ocean Joe
October 23, 2024 at 12:08 pm
“You people,” always a classic conversation starter especially when you’re going to demean an entire ethnic, religious, social group. Of course nobody wants a hurricane, though I’d like a government that recognizes the impact of climate change. Kamala does, Trump doesnt, Ricky and Ron know better but the votes are more important. You keep voting red, and take the back roads so you can avoid the highways and bridges repaired by the Infrastructure Act Biden passed but Trump couldnt.
A Day without Climate denier
October 24, 2024 at 1:17 am
It will impact just before the polls close as a Cat 5 in Tallahassee,it manifest destiny,why Democrats in Tallahassee vote early and often Google Florida Hurricane November Forecast
A Day without MAGA
October 22, 2024 at 5:32 pm
You have already admitted Trump defeat
Billy Rotberg
October 22, 2024 at 8:10 pm
You have already explained why democrats are the party of petty nillistic fear mongering bs. Further explanations will only help independents make their decisions to never vote for you cultists.
Billy Rotberg
October 22, 2024 at 8:14 pm
Good. Harris circus clowns seek political gains off of Hurricanes and coffin surfing on the corpses of dead school children murdered by one of their registered voters they armed.
A Day without MAGA
October 23, 2024 at 11:26 pm
Hurricane Patty is based on the laws of probability,she will impact Florida about the election day, people have a choice to evacuate or vote,I cannot wish of thing ,that are predetermined by nature,why Democrats show not hesitate to vote
A Day without Republican
October 24, 2024 at 1:21 am
Democrats to steer Hurricane To Florida on Election Day in Republican areas,why Democrats should vote early,while Republican vote in the storm or evacuate
A Day without Insane MAGA
October 22, 2024 at 5:30 pm
Why Republicans are insane in the membrane Google Guiliani Judgement Day
FLPatriot
October 23, 2024 at 9:46 am
Means nothing though. I know of several women who say out loud they are voting Trump because of their husbands but actually voted Harris. They are registered Republicans. I am sure there are registered Dems that do the same but I doubt there are many.
Ocean Joe
October 23, 2024 at 12:12 pm
Dont get upset. Trump will win Florida…it’s Florida! Even the poor folks stripping soggy drywall out of their dream homes having been denied coverage will take time out to vote Republican. They’ll complain if FEMA is short on funds, but then go vote for the congressmen and senator who always vote to cut the funding.
A Day without MAGA
October 23, 2024 at 1:56 pm
Hurricane Cat 5 Patty is headed to Florida on election 100 percent guaranteed
A Day without MAGA
October 23, 2024 at 1:55 pm
Harris win the Caribbean island vote,she win the Asian vote,she win the Puerto Rican vote and Black vote and the majority of minority vote
A Day without MAGA
October 23, 2024 at 11:17 pm
It a Cat 5 on election day,the model have been confirmed 10 days out ,it will have winds of 130 miles an when it impacts Tallahassee, before the election results roll end