A.G. Gancarski
A Republican from Fernandina Beach may win a second term in Congress, but not without a fight.
That’s the takeaway from new polling of Florida’s 4th Congressional District from the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL).
The survey, which was conducted Oct. 18 and 19, finds U.S. Rep. Aaron Bean leading LaShonda “LJ” Holloway, 51% to 44%, among 337 likely voters
“Bean won by a whopping 21 points in the 2022 midterm election, the first election in the newly re-drawn CD4 after Florida’s hotly contested redistricting,” said PORL faculty director and professor of political science Dr. Michael Binder. “Turnout among Democrats in 2022 was atrocious, at less than 50% statewide.”
But that was then and this is now.
“This time around, not only is it a presidential election, but there’s actually a competitive senate race to drive up Democratic turnout. It’s still looking like another Bean victory in CD4, but maybe not by as wide a margin as we saw two years ago,” Binder added.
Bean takes 88% of Republicans, while Holloway takes 84% of Democrats. She’s also up 37% to 35% with independents.
Gender and ethnic gaps are in play as well.
Bean is +22 with male voters, and +44 with White voters. Holloway is +5 with female voters, meanwhile.
The incumbent has almost no measurable support among Black voters, with just 1% compared to 80% for his Democratic challenger.
The district appears poised to vote Republican above Bean on the ticket as well.
Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris by roughly 10 points inside CD 4, Binder notes, and Rick Scott has nearly the same lead over Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.
Bean carried a healthy war chest into October, with more than $875,000 in his campaign account, per records with the Federal Election Commission. To put that in perspective, Holloway had just under $30,000 at the same time.
12 comments
Phil Morton
October 24, 2024 at 7:16 am
L.J. in a squeaker. We’re all tired of Aaron Bean.
MH/Duuuval
October 24, 2024 at 9:00 am
Going to be difficult to beat Bean in a district gerrymandered just for him by Dee.
This gerrymandered district has been challenged in court, but Dee has been successful in slowing the process to the point that it may not be until 2026 that the question is resolved. If ever.
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Harold Finch
October 24, 2024 at 2:40 pm
Why?
the Truth
October 24, 2024 at 9:58 am
Aaron Bean is a very good Representative,,, Isn’t Hollaway a Trans???
MH/Duuuval
October 25, 2024 at 10:50 am
Aaron Bean is a decent soul, or was when he was local. But since going state/national, he sold his soul to depraved MAGAs.
Time will tell if he can outrun dealing with the Devil.
It's Complicated
October 24, 2024 at 4:39 pm
It is not a competitive seat. FL-4 is a “Solid Republican” GOP +6 performance seat, which Bean won by 22% in 2022. No “competitive Senate race” will correct that demographic and performance margin. After the final campaign spending blitz takes place, Bean wins by at least 12%.
the Truth
October 24, 2024 at 6:45 pm
is Lashonda a tranny????
Kruz
October 25, 2024 at 7:58 am
Is your mammy a trans? She is not, and has a health story of survival that should be celebrated not degraded, but if she was she would still have more balls than you.
Jason
October 25, 2024 at 10:23 am
Tired of we a loyal to human mutilatet we pay them thousands of American dollars to work and become a majority to let them all in
MH/Duuuval
October 25, 2024 at 10:47 am
These foreign bots need to brush up on their language skills — never mind their bizarre politics.
Jason
October 25, 2024 at 7:44 pm
It getting to be burn white rights migrate to the north because it bad in the south. Redlining and high crimes. Tired of kkl all the time.