Donald Trump ahead with independents as election nears

Trump arnold palmer
A national survey makes the case.

A new survey from Emerson College says the national presidential race couldn’t be closer, with Donald Trump and Kamala Harris tied at 49% each.

While the national popular vote means little given the Electoral College ultimately decides the winner on a state-by-state basis, the survey shows a divided electorate, but with a slight advantage to the GOP candidate when it comes to unaligned voters.

“In this poll, independents report breaking for Trump 49% to 46% — a reversal from 2020, where they reported voting for Biden by about ten points,” remarks polling director Spencer Kimball.

A gender gap looms large also.

“Male voters are breaking for Trump by 13 points, 55% to 42%, a larger margin than in 2020, while women break for Harris by ten points, 54% to 44%, underperforming Joe Biden’s support in 2020,” Kimball added.

Only 5% of voters have not made up their mind, while 7% did in just the last week; in contrast, 62% knew who they were voting for before September ended.

Voters are almost evenly split when it comes to who they think will win the race. 50% say Trump, 49% say Harris.

A.G. Gancarski

A.G. Gancarski has been the Northeast Florida correspondent for Florida Politics since 2014. He writes for the New York Post and National Review also, with previous work in the American Conservative and Washington Times and a 15+ year run as a columnist in Folio Weekly. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter: @AGGancarski


24 comments

  • A day without Libturds

    October 26, 2024 at 3:09 pm

    Still too early but it looks like the libturds are going to lose the senate so even if their word salad prostitute candidate squeaks by, she will be useless. No supreme court picks, just years of sky screamer excuse pushing. Happy Halloween libturd scum!

    Reply

    • Frankie M.

      October 26, 2024 at 3:12 pm

      Better word salad than poop salad aka diarrhea of the mouth.

      Reply

      • A day without Libturds

        October 26, 2024 at 3:43 pm

        All of your blue cultist leaders have diarrhea of the mouth. That’s why you love them so much.

        Reply

      • Jimbeau

        October 27, 2024 at 2:12 am

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        Reply

    • The Cat In The MAGA Hat

      October 26, 2024 at 3:38 pm

      You thing still in your mama

      Reply

      • A day without Libturds

        October 26, 2024 at 3:49 pm

        No need to own the libs. They make themselves look stupid every day.

        Reply

        • MH/Duuuval

          October 27, 2024 at 12:44 pm

          NOVI, Mich. — Republican nominee Donald Trump criticized expanded voting options at a rally here marking the start of early voting for all counties in this critical battleground state. (Oct. 26, 2024)

          What’s Trump gonna do — line up the millions of naughty MAGAs who voted before Election Day and discipline them?

          Reply

  • Frankie M.

    October 26, 2024 at 3:11 pm

    Stupid is as stupid votes.

    Reply

  • ScienceBLVR

    October 26, 2024 at 3:29 pm

    Who cares what the polls say? One wonders where all these pollsters go once the party is over. Personally, have ignored at least 10 calls on the land line this week..yeah yeah, I like the option of a non-cell, but that’s the number “Pollsters” would call. Deleted every one giving no response. Always a bit skeptical of the description of the poll sample. Again, it matters not what whoever these people are who respond to poll calls or what they self report on voting preferences..
    What matters, is we vote for Kamala
    Y una mujer los guiará

    Reply

    • A day without Libturds

      October 26, 2024 at 3:52 pm

      Not happening. I took 2 polls. Lied and said I’d vote for hobama. Gonna be fun watching you cultists cry for another 4 years.

      Reply

  • A Cat in A MAGA got Arrested

    October 26, 2024 at 3:59 pm

    Google Trump Exterrestial Life

    Reply

  • I Am Speaking

    October 26, 2024 at 4:35 pm

    Now where did all those people go that said Kammy was gonna win the independents? PeterH? MH? Just to name a couple.

    Reply

    • MH/Duuuval

      October 27, 2024 at 10:30 am

      Always premature.

      Reply

  • Michael K

    October 26, 2024 at 4:45 pm

    Somebody should warn Trump:

    Elon Musk, enemy of ‘open borders,’ launched his career working here in the US illegally.

    Read it in todays WaPo.

    Reply

    • I Am Speaking.

      October 26, 2024 at 5:17 pm

      Getting desperate now. An immigrant that has brought manufacturing and good paying jobs to this country. I think many people like Elon.

      Reply

  • MH/Duuuval

    October 26, 2024 at 4:53 pm

    Don’t you just love the nitwits that assume polls and their own predilections give them a corner on predicting the winner of a political contest?

    Cries last, cries worst.

    Reply

    • I Am Speaking.

      October 26, 2024 at 5:18 pm

      Ha! Ha! Funny how the narrative changes.

      Reply

    • A day without Libturds

      October 26, 2024 at 10:25 pm

      You cry like a female dog. All day. Libturds are snowflakes.

      Reply

  • I Am Speaking.

    October 26, 2024 at 5:33 pm

    She was voted the most liberal US Senator when she was there. People might not be ready for a radical liberal, sex changes and all.

    Reply

    • MH/Duuuval

      October 27, 2024 at 10:31 am

      Obviously you don’t follow Senate Democrats that closely.

      Reply

  • Michael K

    October 26, 2024 at 7:04 pm

    I would love to know how someone rationalizes voting for a man who thinks this nation is a garbage can.

    Reply

    • A day without Libturds

      October 26, 2024 at 10:24 pm

      Your candidate is literally a c*m dumpster. So are you.

      Reply

      • MH/Duuuval

        October 27, 2024 at 10:32 am

        Another classy MAGA comment.

        Reply

  • MarvinM

    October 27, 2024 at 11:30 am

    It’s one poll, and they only sampled 282 independents, so applying the percentages, that means 8 more people in the sample indicated Trump over Harris. A full 14 independent people either declined to answer or were voting for someone else. Trying to apply this to the race at large would have to be done with a hefty margin of error. Reality could easily be the exact opposite – Harris 49%, Trump 46% among independents – or even more favorable to Harris – 51% H, 47% T perhaps.

    Reply

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