Sunburn — The morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics — 10.29.24

Good Tuesday morning.

With just one week until the election, we want to know where you’ll be partying on Election Night. We’re bringing back our lighthearted, fun roundup of Election Night parties for statewide, legislative and local races (and ballot initiatives).

The list is meant to inform supporters of how their candidates and supporting campaigns will watch results roll in on Election Night. The list does not have to be an invitation for individuals to attend if the information is private. So please feel free to provide as much or as little information about events as is appropriate. We want to ensure no one is left out.

If you know of any Election Night watch parties, send the deets to [email protected] or [email protected].

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According to new polling from St. Pete Polls, nearly half of Floridians who planned to vote in this election have already done so.

The survey found Kamala Harris with a slim lead among early voters, 49.2%-48.0%, but those yet to vote tilt toward Donald Trump by double digits, 53%-40%. If that’s how it shakes out, Trump would carry the state by nearly six percentage points, 50.3%-44.6%.

It seems unlikely Harris is leading a week out from the election since Republicans are running up the score in early in-person voting while nearly matching Democrats in mail ballots. As of Monday afternoon, the tally stood at 2.07 million GOP voters to 1.57 million Democratic ones.

Florida’s race for the U.S. Senate is much closer, with incumbent Republican Rick Scott leading Democratic former U.S. Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell 48.8%-45.6%. Again, the Democrat leads among the early birds, with those in the late rush flocking toward the GOP by more than 10 percentage points.

St. Pete Polls also found the abortion-rights amendment falling short of the 60% threshold required to pass. Amendment 4 fared best among early voters but still didn’t hit the mark. It falls from 57.5% support among that cohort to just 50.7% among the remainder.

The St. Pete Polls survey was conducted Oct. 25-27. It has a sample size of 1,227 likely General Election voters, and the margin of error is +/- 2.8%.

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With the General Election a week away, proponents of a recreational pot amendment hope to clear the air of misinformation

Smart & Safe Florida’s latest ad, “Tallahassee Politicians,” directly confronts claims made in ads criticizing the ballot measure.

“Tallahassee politicians are lying about Amendment 3 and spending $50 million of your tax dollars to fool you,” a narrator states. “The truth? Amendment 3 will legalize safe, regulated marijuana for adults to use in the privacy of their own homes and stop needless arrests by decriminalizing personal amounts of marijuana while generating billions for our schools and police.”

The ad directly references images from a Vote No on 3 campaign, specifically “Not Even One,” which implies that the passage of Amendment 3 would prohibit homegrown marijuana.

The proposed constitutional amendment doesn’t touch on the regulation of who or how marijuana can be grown if the measure is passed. Florida law created around medical marijuana prohibits homegrown marijuana, but that was based on regulations conceived by the Florida Legislature.

“It is disappointing that some politicians are deliberately misleading Floridians about Amendment 3,” said Morgan Hill, spokesperson for Smart & Safe Florida, “but even more so that they are using taxpayer money meant for opioid recovery and other public services to do it.”

That refers to a controversial expenditure of state money on public service announcements specifically attacking Amendment 3, a publicly funded operation that includes 13,000 TV ads and 5,000 radio ads, as well as streaming, digital and billboard promotion.

State purchase orders suggest those ads are partially funded from $18 million set aside from the Opioid Settlement Trust Fund for a drug prevention media campaign.

To watch the ad, please click the image below:

 

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Law and lobbying firm Becker is elevating a suite of attorneys to leadership roles across several practices as part of an expansion.

Among the highlights is Omar Franco, who was appointed vice-Chair of the firm’s Government Law and Lobbying Practice. He will work alongside Chair Bernie Friedman. Franco previously served as Chair of Becker’s Federal Lobbying Practice.

“We are excited about these leadership changes, which reflect both our past successes and our commitment to the future,” said Becker CEO and Managing Shareholder Gary Rosen.

“Each of these individuals has demonstrated the leadership, expertise, and dedication that are core to our firm’s values. Their contributions will help drive our continued growth and ensure we remain well-positioned to meet the evolving needs of our clients.”

Founded in Ft. Lauderdale, Becker celebrated its 50th anniversary last year. Over the decades, the firm has grown to include 11 offices across the state, with additional locations in New York, New Jersey and D.C.

— SITUATIONAL AWARENESS —

—@MarcACaputo: The Puerto Rico trash island joke, according to our 4 campaign sources, was ad-libbed. Two of them said the other line, comparing open borders and Latino unprotected sex, was also ad-libbed (the other 2 sources didn’t know)

—@Jolevick: yesterday I knocked on a door, a woman answered. She indicated by silently nodding + mouthing that yes, she would be voting for Kamala — while tilting her head to indicate she did not want to be heard by a man in the other room (who was loudly talking). This shit is very real.

Tweet, tweet:

—@MurphyMike: Quick personal announcement: I’m delighted to be joining Brian Williams for his live Election Night Special on Amazon Prime Video! This AP story explains all! My pal James Carville and I will be holding down the Old Pro War-Horse Desk! 🙂

Tweet, tweet:

—@AODespair: Just read the insights of Jeff Bezos in his opinion piece in The Post. I wasn’t going to join 200,000 others and cancel my subscription because doing so won’t hurt Bezos — he paid more for his yachts than his newspaper — and, yes, the Post newsroom where good people and some friends still labor continues providing meaningful journalism. But, my god, this man’s insipid defense of his own transparent cowardice is provoking. I canceled. I wasn’t going to do it. I probably shouldn’t, and certainly, if this techno-brat oligarch ever releases his grip on what needs to be an independent newsroom and editorial board, indifferent to the financial positions of its publisher, then I’ll return. But this kind of abuse of a public trust by a publisher is unacceptable.

—@SteveSchale: I don’t agree with Marco (Rubio) on a lot (and I’m proud to be the one guy who beat him in 06), but I appreciate his leadership against Big Clock Switch as it’s time to make daylight saving time permanent

— DAYS UNTIL —

Florida TaxWatch’s 45th Annual Meeting – 1; 2024 Presidential Election – 7; second half of Yellowstone season five premieres – 8; USF stadium groundbreaking — 10; Taylor Sheridan’s ‘Landman’ premieres – 17; ‘Dune: Prophecy’ premieres on HBO — 19; News Service of Florida’s Above & Beyond Awards, honoring women in government and public service — 21; Legislature’s 2025 Organizational Session – 23; Las Vegas Grand Prix – 23; ‘Wicked’ premieres — 24; ‘Moana 2’ premieres – 29; ‘Chef’s Table’ returns to Netflix — 29; 2024 Florida Chamber Annual Insurance Summit begins – 35; Florida Chamber 2024 Florida Transportation, Growth & Infrastructure Solution Summit — 35; MLS Cup 2024 – 39; Army-Navy game — 46; ‘Mufasa: The Lion King’ premieres – 52; College Football Playoff begins – 54; ‘Squid Game’ season two premieres – 58; Fiesta, Peach, Rose & Sugar Bowls – 645; Orange Bowl – 72; ‘Severance’ season two debuts – 87; Super Bowl LIX — 103; ‘Captain America: Brave New World’ premieres – 115; the 2025 Oscars – 124; Florida’s 2025 Legislative Session begins – 126; Tampa Bay Rays season opener — 149; 2025 Session ends – 185; ‘Thunderbolts’ premieres – 185; Epic Universe grand opening — 205; ‘Karate Kid: Legends’ premieres — 213; ‘Fantastic Four – First Steps’ premieres – 269; ‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’ premieres – 416; ‘Avengers 5’ premieres – 553; Untitled ‘Star Wars’ movie premieres – 570; FIFA World Cup 26™ final – 591; FIFA World Cup 26™ final match – 629; ‘The Batman 2’ premieres – 708; Another untitled ‘Star Wars’ movie premieres – 781; ‘Avengers: Secret Wars’ premieres – 921; 2028 Los Angeles Olympics Opening Ceremony — 1,354; ‘Avatar 4’ premieres – 1,880; ‘Avatar 5’ premieres – 2,601.

— TOP STORY —

“‘Racist’ Donald Trump rally rhetoric slammed by Florida’s Puerto Rican community” via Steven Lemongello and Natalia Jaramillo of the Orlando Sentinel — The comments by a comedian who spoke before Trump were denounced by residents who called them an unfair slap against the island. Some of Puerto Rico’s biggest pop stars responded with public support for Trump’s opponent, Vice President Harris.

Republicans in Florida have made major gains among the state’s Hispanic voters in the past decade, gaining notable strength in Osceola County, home to one of the region’s largest Puerto Rican communities, but now some wonder if Trump’s Sunday night rally will be a game-changer in next week’s election.

“I don’t know if you guys know this, but there’s literally a floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean right now. I think it’s called Puerto Rico,” said Tony Hinchcliffe, a standup comic who spoke before Trump at the Madison Square Garden event touted as a closing statement in his campaign.

“It’s just more of this racism, more of attacking minorities,” said U.S. Rep. Darren Soto, the first person of Puerto Rican descent from Florida to serve in Congress. “Those are classic fascist tactics.”

“It really was a lack of respect for all Puerto Ricans and for our island that has done so much for the United States,” said Olga Cariño, owner of Cariño’s Cafe in Kissimmee.

According to U.S. Census estimates, Florida has the largest Puerto Rican population in the country, with nearly 1.2 million.

“We are a big part of the Latino vote, and there are many Puerto Ricans who live here in the states,” Cariño said.

— 2024 — PRESIDENTIAL —

Happening today — Team Harris-Walz and Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried will host a Noles for Harris Block Party for young voters, students, and grassroots activists to mobilize behind Harris and Tim Walz’s New Way Forward: Noon, Florida State University. RSVP here.

“Trump team fears damage from racist rally remarks” via Maggie Haberman, Jonathan Swan and Michael Gold of The New York Times — The backlash among Puerto Rican celebrities and performers was instantaneous across social media, prompting the Trump campaign to issue a rare defensive statement distancing themselves from offensive comments. In a tight race, any constituency could be decisive and the sizable Puerto Rican community in the battleground state of Pennsylvania was on the minds of Trump allies. Danielle Alvarez, a senior adviser to the Trump campaign, said the Puerto Rico joke “does not reflect the views of President Trump or the campaign.” The Trump ethos has generally been never to apologize, never admit error and try to ignore controversy. Alvarez’s statement was a rare break from that tradition, reflecting a new concern that Trump risks reminding undecided voters of the dark tenor of his political movement in the closing stage of the 2024 race. The pushback also came from officials in Florida, where Trump’s campaign is based and where some of his advisers have spent their careers.

“Trump rally comedian workshopped racist Puerto Rico line at NYC comedy club the night before” via Nicole Acevedo and Ignacio Torres of NBC News — The comedian who let loose a series of racist jokes, some about Puerto Rico, at Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally Sunday night workshopped the material the night before at a local comedy club. Hinchcliffe called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage” to warm up the New York City crowd — drawing immediate criticism from across the political spectrum and derailing what was supposed to be a night highlighting Trump in the final stretch of the campaign. It was not the first time Hinchcliffe had used the Puerto Rico line — he practiced it at The Stand comedy club in New York City, where he made a surprise appearance Saturday night.

“Kamala Harris cuts ad featuring MSG Trump rally Puerto Rico ‘garbage’ joke” via Rafael Bernal of The Hill — Harris’ campaign wasted no time making hay of the backlash against a crude comedy set at Trump’s Madison Square Garden (MSG) rally Sunday. The Harris campaign on Monday cut and released an ad tying Hinchcliffe’s set, where he compared Puerto Rico to a seafaring garbage patch, to Trump’s treatment of the island. The ad replays images of hurricane devastation in Puerto Rico set to Hinchcliffe’s punchline — “a floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean, I think it’s called Puerto Rico” — cutting to a black screen and Trump’s unorthodox pronunciation of “Puerto Rico” at a 2017 Hispanic Heritage Month event.

To watch the ad, please click the image below:

 

“JD Vance says ‘we have to stop getting so offended’ when asked about racist jokes at Trump rally” via Alec Hernández and Dareh Gregorian of NBC News — Sen. Vance said that while he hadn’t heard the racist jokes made by a comedian at his running mate’s New York City rally the previous night, he thinks Americans need to “stop getting so offended.” “I’m just — I’m so over it,” Vance said after an NBC News reporter asked about the inflammatory remarks about Latinos and others by Hinchcliffe, the first speaker at Trump’s rally at Madison Square Garden on Sunday. “I’ve heard about the joke, I haven’t actually seen the joke that you mentioned, but I think that it’s telling that Kamala Harris’ closing message is essentially that all of Donald Trump’s voters are Nazis, and you should get really pissed off about a comedian telling a joke,” Vance said.

“Americans in Puerto Rico can’t vote for U.S. President. Their anger at Trump is shaping the race” via Dánica Coto of The Associated Press — A comic calling Puerto Rico garbage before a packed Trump rally in New York was the latest humiliation for an island territory that has long suffered from mistreatment, residents said Monday in expressions of fury that could affect the Presidential Election. Puerto Ricans cannot vote in General Elections despite being U.S. citizens, but they can exert a powerful influence with relatives on the mainland. Phones across the island of 3.2 million people were ringing minutes after the speaker derided the U.S. territory Sunday night and they still buzzed Monday. Harris is competing with Trump to win over Puerto Rican communities in Pennsylvania and other swing states. Shortly after, Hinchcliffe said, “I don’t know if you guys know this, but there’s literally a floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean right now. I think it’s called Puerto Rico,” Puerto Rican reggaeton superstar Bad Bunny announced he was backing Harris.

“Republicans ask U.S. Supreme Court to block counting of some provisional ballots in Pennsylvania” via The Associated Press — Republicans on Monday asked the U.S. Supreme Court for an emergency order in Pennsylvania that could result in thousands of votes not being counted in this year’s election in the battleground state. Just over a week before the election, the court is being asked to step into a dispute over provisional ballots cast by Pennsylvania voters whose mail ballots are rejected for not following technical procedures in state law. The state’s high court ruled 4-3 that elections officials must count provisional ballots cast by voters whose mail-in ballots were voided because they arrived without mandatory secrecy envelopes. The election fight arrived at the Supreme Court the same day Virginia sought the justices’ intervention in a dispute over purging voter registrations. Four years ago, the high court weighed in on pandemic-inspired changes in voting rules in several states, including Pennsylvania.

“Most voters don’t think Trump will concede if he loses the 2024 Election” via Jennifer Agiesta and Ariel Edwards-Levy of CNN — Most voters think Trump will not concede if he loses the 2024 Presidential Election, with a sizable minority of his backers saying losing candidates have no obligation to do so. And should legal challenges related to the election find their way to the Supreme Court, most voters have little or no confidence in the high court to make the right decisions. Overall, 30% of registered voters think Trump will accept the election results and concede if he loses, while 73% say that Harris would accept an election loss. Most registered voters (54%) believe that Harris would concede if she lost and that Trump would not, while 18% say that both candidates would do so, 15% that neither of them would and only 11% that Harris would not concede but Trump would.

“Over 200,000 subscribers flee ‘Washington Post’ after Bezos blocks Harris endorsement” via David Folkenflik of NPR — The Washington Post has been rocked by a tidal wave of cancellations from digital subscribers and a series of resignations from columnists as the paper grapples with the fallout of owner Bezos’ decision to block an endorsement of Harris for President. More than 200,000 people had canceled their digital subscriptions by midday Monday. Not all cancellations take effect immediately. Still, the figure represents about 8% of the paper’s paid circulation of 2.5 million subscribers, including print. The number of cancellations continued to grow Monday afternoon.

— 2024 — FLORIDA —

“‘We have eight days to protect reproductive freedom,’ Mucarsel-Powell tells voters” via Jackie Llanos of Florida Phoenix — Mucarsel-Powell, the Democratic candidate running against Republican U.S. Sen. Scott, said Monday that Floridians confused about the abortion-rights amendment should talk to their doctors about it. During a Monday news conference in Tallahassee, the former South Florida Congresswoman also said that she’s not paying attention to polls that place Amendment 4 either below or just at the 60% approval rate it needs to pass. The amendment would undo existing state law banning most abortions after six weeks of gestation. “Here’s what I would suggest because I worked with doctors. I know where the majority of doctors are on this issue, and it’s to protect the woman’s right and freedom to be able to make her own choice because they know it’s an issue of health care and it’s central to the well-being of a woman,” Mucarsel-Powell said.

“Mucarsel-Powell closes with flurry of TV ads attacking Rick Scott” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics — The last week of the campaign brings no less than four new television ads for a Democratic candidate looking to end the 14-year political career of U.S. Sen. Scott. Former U.S. Rep. Mucarsel-Powell is rolling out three English-language spots, one in Spanish, attacking the Senator on various issues. “Thief” makes the case that the incumbent Republican is less than honest in pursuing what the challenger calls his “toxic agenda.”

To watch “Thief,” please click the image below:

 

Happening today — Florida Democratic Party Chair Fried will host a virtual news conference, joined by U.S. Rep. Darren Soto, U.S. Senate candidate Mucarsel-Powell, state Sen. Shevrin Jones, state Rep. Marie Woodson, and Orange County Democratic Party Chair and DNC member Samuel Santiago Vilchez: 9 a.m., RSVP here for the Zoom link.

Happening today: Sen. Scott will hold a “get out the vote” rally with volunteers and supporters in Ormond Beach at 10 a.m.; address will be provided upon RSVP to [email protected].

— 2024 — MORE FLORIDA —

“Ron DeSantis expects majority to support abortion rights and recreational pot, but predicts amendments won’t pass” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics — “Even though I think we’ll keep them under 60, you know, both of them are likely to get in excess of 50% of the vote, and so we’re going against the headwinds here,” DeSantis said on the Shannon Joy Show. The 60% threshold is meaningful. In 2006, 58% of people voted to ratify a rule requiring 60% support for proposed constitutional amendments. Subsequent pushes regarding the supermajority requirement haven’t gotten traction up until now. Still, the high-dollar and high-profile challenges to the Republican power structure suggest the issue might be ripe for reconsideration in 2025. Whether one or both of the amendments does better than Trump or Scott on the ballot remains to be seen, but DeSantis has strenuously messaged against the amendments.

“How would Amendment 3 be implemented if passed? It may depend on who your sheriff is, former officer says” via Scott Johnson of News4Jax — With Election Day just around the corner, some questions remain regarding Amendment 3, especially how and when it would be implemented if it were to pass. Amendment 3 would legalize recreational marijuana for adults 21 years of age and older. It needs 60% approval to pass. While the initiative will be voted on in November, the law would not take effect for six months — in May 2025 — if passed. News4Jax spoke with multiple voters who said they were either unaware of the gap in time before the amendment would take effect or thought marijuana users would just start using anyway. “Yes, I think they would. They’re already doing it,” said voter Brenda Hines. Others were unaware of the six-month window before it’s legal.

Happening today — Sens. Jones, Joe Gruters and Trulieve CEO Kim Rivers will host a series of events at Trulieve stores around the state supporting Amendment 3: 10 a.m. ET, Trulieve Orlando Semoran Dispensary, 6655 S. Semoran Blvd., Orlando; 12:30 p.m. ET, Jacksonville Arrowhead Dispensary, 10339 San Jose Blvd., Jacksonville; 2:15 p.m. CT, Trulieve Panama City Dispensary, 1020 East 23rd St., Panama City; and 4:45 p.m. CT, Trulieve Pensacola Dispensary 9 Mile, 1901 East 9 Mile Road, Pensacola. RSVP to [email protected].

“A group of GOP women say they support Florida’s abortion amendment” via Cathy Carter of WUSF — In a gated community in Lakewood Ranch, a few dozen people mingle in a large living room, sipping wine and noshing on shrimp cocktail when one of their hosts, Carol Whitmore, a former Republican Manatee County Commissioner and one of the founders of Conservative Women for Freedom, invites them to take a seat. “Hey everybody, can you hear me? We’re going to start. Come on in; we’re going to have a chat.” This mixer is to encourage guests to speak openly about why they support Amendment 4, which would undo Florida’s six-week abortion ban. “We may not agree with the Democratic platform, but we do agree on this issue,” Whitmore told the group. The women and a couple of men listen as Dr. Marion Pandiscio, an obstetrician, talks about ectopic pregnancies and other pregnancy complications that cause harm.

— 2024 — DOWN-BALLOT 1 —

“Randy Fine and Vance Ahrens vie for SD 19 seat” via Eric Rogers of Florida Today — The race for Senate District 19 pits one of the Republican architects of Florida’s rollback of transgender protections against a Democratic political newcomer running to become the state’s first openly transgender Senator. Republican Rep. Fine faces Democrat Vance Ahrens in the upcoming General Election to represent the district, which covers most of Central and South Brevard from Port St. John and Cape Canaveral to Micco. The seat is currently held by Sen. Debbie Mayfield, who could not seek re-election due to term limits. Fine, a controversial, conservative firebrand who has represented Brevard County in the House since 2016, has been at the front of Florida’s recent push to restrict the accessibility of gender-affirming care.

— 2024 — DOWN-BALLOT 2 —

“Ballots have been destroyed in two states. How to track your Florida ballot” via Cheryl McCloud of USA Today Network — Twenty ballots were destroyed after a fire inside a mailbox Thursday, Oct. 24, in Phoenix, Arizona. At least two ballot boxes were set on fire Monday, Oct. 28, in the Portland, Oregon, area. The Florida Division of Elections have received more than 2 million ballots, with 1.4 million yet to arrive, as of Monday morning. The deadline to request a ballot in Florida if you wanted to vote by mail was Oct. 24. If you miss the deadline and you’re an active voter, you can either vote early or vote on Election Day, Nov. 5.

“‘It’s definitely scary’: State attorney says voter intimidation is a top priority” via Kayla McDermott of WPTV — Early voting began this week; officials want everyone at the polls to remain safe. That is why Palm Beach County State Attorney Dave Aronberg said he is prioritizing voter intimidation. He said this election cycle has been filled with some of the “worst political rhetoric” he has ever seen. In the parking lot of the Acreage Branch Library, a voting site in Palm Beach County, WPTV crews were rolling as a man yelled horrible insults at a woman there to support a candidate. The man yelled threats and four antisemitic slurs at Lilly Loudon.

— STATEWIDE —

“A new storm may be brewing in the Caribbean. What to know.” via Matthew Cappucci of The Washington Post — Hurricane season is almost over — the Atlantic season technically ends on Nov. 30 — but we’re not at the finish line yet. While November historically accounts for just 6% of average Atlantic hurricane activity, a new storm might be brewing. The National Hurricane Center forecasts 40% odds that a named storm will form in the western Caribbean within the next week. The next storm name on the list is “Patty.” Still, it’s unclear whether anything will form, and it’s too early to speculate on potential strength, timing or impacts. But if it does form, it could be a threat to land.

“Cost of back-to-back hurricanes now exceeds $4B in Florida” via Drew Dixon of Florida Politics — The OIR website that tracks Catastrophic Claims Data and Reporting shows the mounting estimated cost of the back-to-back storms that slammed the state within two weeks of each other has now climbed to $4.285 billion combined. OIR uses the Insurance Regulation Filing System to compile estimates and dollar costs for lost property and other factors. As of Oct. 25, 247,432 total insurance claims were filed in Florida for damage caused by Milton, which initially slammed the state on the west coast on Oct. 9 and exited the peninsula into the Atlantic Ocean on Oct. 10. Those claims add up to an estimated total insurance loss in Florida of $2.848 billion thus far. There have been 198,338 residential property claims so far in the state for Milton, amounting to $2.37 billion in damage. Another 8,569 commercial property damage claims have been filed in the state, which accounts for $229.17 million in damage from Milton.

“Seminole Tribe settles legal challenges to online sports gambling exclusivity in Florida” via Garret Phillips of WFLA — The Seminole Tribe of Florida and a group of businesses that operate racetracks and poker rooms have settled a yearslong legal dispute over whether the Seminole Tribe should have exclusive rights to online sports betting in Florida, the tribe announced Monday. The Seminole Tribe, along with West Flagler Associates and the Bonita-Fort Myers Corp., have entered into a comprehensive agreement where the companies have agreed to end litigation against the tribe’s gaming operations and instead will begin a new partnership to offer Jai Alai waging on the tribe’s Hard Rock Bet app. “Rather than engaging in years of additional litigation, this agreement will allow the parties to work together to promote Jai Alai, which has played an important role in Florida’s gaming landscape for nearly 100 years,” Seminole Gaming CEO Jim Allen said in a statement.

— D.C. MATTERS —

“Extremists inspired by conspiracy theories pose major threat to 2024 Elections, U.S. intelligence warns” via Brandy Zadrozny of NBC News — U.S. intelligence agencies have identified domestic extremists with grievances rooted in election-related conspiracy theories, including beliefs in widespread voter fraud and animosity toward perceived political opponents, as the most likely threat of violence in the coming election. In a Joint Intelligence Bulletin that was not distributed publicly but was reviewed by NBC News, agents from the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security warn state and local law enforcement agencies that domestic violent extremists seeking to terrorize and disrupt the vote are a threat to the election and throughout Inauguration Day. The report identified the potential targets as candidates, elected officials, election workers, media members, and judges involved in election cases. The possible threats include physical attacks and violence at polling places, ballot drop boxes, voter registration locations, and rallies and campaign events.

— LOCAL: S. FL —

Happening today — Former State Senator and candidate for Miami-Dade County Clerk of Courts and Comptroller Annette Taddeo will join South Dade community leaders, including Mayor Otis Wallace, Rep. Kevin Chambliss, Pastor Anthony Reed, Reverend Dr. Alphonso Jackson, Reverend Dr. Remiel Lockwood, Florida City Vice Mayor Sharon Butler, Florida City Commissioners Walter Thompson, James Gold, and Eugene Berry to rally the community during early voting: 4 p.m., Florida City Youth Activity Center, 650 NW 5th Ave., Florida City. RSVP to Claire VanSusteren at (352) 281-9056.

“‘We are making history.’ Republicans surge ahead in Miami-Dade early voting” via Douglas Hanks and Max Greenwood of the Miami Herald — Surging early voting by Republicans in Miami-Dade has Democrats hoping to play catch up before the final votes are counted in a county that has voted blue in every Presidential Election since the 1990s. Republicans have a six-point edge over Democrats in the nearly 500,000 ballots cast in person and by the mail through Monday afternoon. That puts Republican candidates in a much more encouraging battlefield than this time four years ago, when Democrats were ahead by 12 points in the number of ballots cast, according to a Miami Herald tally from 2020. There are still eight days to go in the election, so early figures offer only a snapshot of the partisan ingredients of Miami-Dade’s 2024 voting and nothing about how people have voted. But two years after DeSantis stunned local Democrats by winning Miami-Dade by 11 percentage points, Republicans see their current ballot lead as a sign that a red wave is coming.

“Candidate for Miami-Dade elections chief caught on video yelling at, touching U.S. Senate candidate” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics — Many would agree that in a time of shaky faith in America’s election integrity, it is vital for election officials to be as outwardly apolitical as possible. Miami Republican state Rep. Alina Garcia, the GOP nominee for Miami-Dade Supervisor of Elections (SOE), evidently disagrees. She was captured on camera joining a group confronting Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Mucarsel-Powell with chants of “socialista” (socialist). At one point, she puts her hand on Mucarsel-Powell’s shoulder, prompting a nearby officer to tell her, “No touching.” According to Garcia, the confrontation was manufactured and the video was misleading. She told Florida Politics the encounter, which occurred Sunday at a rally she and other Republican candidates were holding at an early voting site, happened after Mucarsel-Powell and other Democrats showed up to disrupt it. Hialeah Rep. Alex Rizo, Chair of the Miami-Dade GOP, concurred with Garcia and blamed Mucarsel-Powell for “a dangerous and disgraceful display of political thuggery.”

To watch the video, please click the image below:

“Fort Lauderdale Mayor draws three challengers in fierce battle for seat” via Susannah Bryan of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel — A crowded race for Mayor of Fort Lauderdale has pitted three political rivals against Dean Trantalis, the man who has been doing the job since 2018. The election comes at a critical time for Fort Lauderdale, a growing coastal city facing various challenges, including sea-level rise, damaging floods from record rainstorms, and a homeless crackdown mandated by the state. Trantalis, a real estate lawyer, says residents should vote for him in the Nov. 5 election because he is the most qualified person to guide the city through the next four years. His three opponents disagree.

— LOCAL: C. FL —

“Kissimmee top cop resigns after State Attorney questions her truthfulness in use-of-force probe” via Cristóbal Reyes of the Orlando Sentinel — Kissimmee Police Chief Betty Holland resigned from her post, days after a letter from the Orange-Osceola State Attorney’s Office named her among 11 members of her Department whose credibility is being questioned following the indictment of a police officer for unlawfully beating a man during an arrest. Maj. Robert Anzueto of the Orange County Sheriff’s Office was appointed Interim Police Chief beginning Wednesday and is expected to helm the Sheriff’s Office investigation into the officers named by the State Attorney’s Office. The letter, dated Oct. 21 and first reported by WFTV, said prosecutors found “systemic issues” within KPD during its investigation of Officer Andrew Baseggio.

“Did DeSantis get it right? Orange-Osceola State Attorney candidates make final Election Day pitches” via Cristóbal Reyes of the Orlando Sentinel — For the past year, suspended Orange-Osceola State Attorney Monique Worrell has battled to get her job back after her removal by DeSantis — accused of failing to “faithfully” and more aggressively prosecute crime. The Democrat’s suspension — after what DeSantis and allies said was a pattern of being “soft on crime” and public spats with law enforcement leaders in Orange and Osceola counties — led to the appointment of Andrew Bain, a former Orange County judge. Worrell has defended her time as State Attorney, asserting — to news outlets and in public debates — that she was following the law while tackling violent crime and offering alternatives to prosecution for certain first-time offenders. Meanwhile, Bain has boasted of turning the office around.

“Osceola Republicans slam change in sign policy with early voting already underway” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics — Osceola County has ordered candidates to take down political signs planted outside early voting precincts. Supervisor of Elections Mary Jane Arrington said she had nothing to do with that order. Still, local Republicans say nobody had trouble until anti-Arrington signs started popping up by the road. The Republican Party of Osceola County plans to hold a news conference at its Kissimmee headquarters, slamming the decision as election interference. The party said it received a notification on Friday, days after early voting had already started, that signs located outside polling locations — even ones planted beyond the 150-foot zone where campaigning is restricted by law — would be removed and destroyed. “This desperate attempt by the Democrat-run Osceola County government to silence our political speech at the last-minute amounts to nothing more than ELECTION INTERFERENCE,” reads a statement from Osceola Republican Chair Mark Cross.

— LOCAL: TB —

“After hurricanes wrecked businesses, workers are desperate for jobs” via Shauna Muckle and Lauren Peace of the Tampa Bay Times — At 69, Joseph Romano imagined retirement, golf, watching over kids’ Little League games. But his wife, Patricia, got sick in 2022, and the couple drained decades of savings on medical bills. Romano worked as a cashier at Shorty’s Breakfast and Gourmet Deli, a convenience store and restaurant on Clearwater’s Sand Key. The $14 he earned an hour, plus Social Security payments, left just enough for a dinner out now and again. Then, this September, Hurricane Helene swamped Shorty’s in floodwaters. The storm, followed by Hurricane Milton, gutted the water and electrical systems — and Romano’s main source of income. He never got a call from the owner telling him he was out of a job, but pictures of the wreckage said enough. By mid-October, Romano was at CareerSource Hillsborough Pinellas, bowed over a keyboard, applying for unemployment.

“Treasure Island’s Mayor resigns after home ‘damaged beyond repair’ during Hurricanes Helene, Milton” via Fox 13 — The City of Treasure Island’s Mayor is resigning after his home was “damaged beyond repair” during Hurricanes Helene and Milton. On Monday, Mayor Tyler Payne announced on social media that it was the best decision for him and his family. “The last three and a half years have been the greatest honor of my life representing the residents of Treasure Island,” said Payne. “While it pains my heart to make this decision in the midst of our recovery from Hurricanes Helene and Milton, this is the best decision for me and my family.” He also said in the post that Treasure Island residents need a Mayor who can dedicate a significant amount of time to leading the community as it recovers from both recent hurricanes.

“Another lawsuit filed against St. Pete nonprofit owner accused of taking $100M” via Christina Georgacopoulos of the Tampa Bay Business Journal — Leo Joseph Govoni, the embattled financier who is accused of embezzling $100 million from a St. Petersburg nonprofit he managed, is facing more legal challenges from entities he apparently owes money to. A commercial equipment financing company is demanding the surrender of machinery purchased with a $490,000 loan it made to Seaboard Manufacturing LLC, one of the more than 40 business entities Govoni has registered over the last two decades. Seaboard Manufacturing received the loan in May 2022 and owes approximately $311,000 in outstanding principal and interest payments. Govoni defaulted on the loan on March 17, 2024, a few weeks after revelations that he had siphoned $100 million from the nonprofit, the Center For Special Needs Trust Administration.

— LOCAL: N. FL —

“Republicans see big win coming in early voting turnout in Jacksonville area” via David Bauerlein of The Florida Times-Union — Turnout for early voting has been painted red by Republicans so far in all five counties in the Jacksonville metropolitan area, with them holding the lead even in Duval County, where Democrats usually have been more active before Election Day. Republicans are up by about three percentage points over Democrats in Duval County when votes cast at early voting sites are combined with ballots returned by mail. The spread is even bigger in the outlying counties where Republican turnout is ahead by 34 points in St. Johns County, 42 points in Clay County, 45 points in Nassau County, and 62 points in Baker County, according to results posted Monday morning.

“Ahead of Nov. 4 decision, Duval School Board has hearings Tuesday on 2025 school closings” via Steve Patterson of The Florida Times-Union — Duval County’s School Board has scheduled hearings today on plans to shutter six elementary schools at the end of this school year. The closing decisions, expected to be finalized Nov. 4, will begin a yearslong consolidation process intended to cut costs for school operations without cutting classroom spending, mainly by using economies of scale. Increased enrollment in charter and private schools has put financial pressure on administrators managing traditional public schools, whose budgeting has also been complicated by a shortage of conventional school space in some fast-developing parts of Jacksonville. While school district figures say Annie R. Morgan in West Jacksonville and Don Brewer in Arlington have both been operating at 42% of capacity, Bernier told the Board this month that Baldwin Middle-High School on the far Westside has a student body at 141% of its capacity.

“Why did Tallahassee Police sweep a potential DUI under the rug for a top Leon County Democrat?” via Brian Burgess of The Capitolist — On the evening of Feb. 8, 2022, Tallahassee police officers responded to a call at a Circle K gas station, where they found Ryan Ray, an aide to City Commissioner Jeremy Matlow, passed out in the driver’s seat of a car. Body camera footage from the incident, which captures Ray struggling to respond coherently to police, raises significant questions about the decision-making process that followed before letting Ray go scott-free. The video shows one officer already on the scene, positioned behind Ray’s car, close enough to read both the license plate and a bumper sticker displaying support for Commissioner Matlow. It is not clear from the footage whether the first police officer ran Ray’s plates before the recording started, but given that’s often a standard practice of law enforcement, it’s possible that Ray’s identity was known to them before the second officer arrived and took charge of the situation.

To watch video of the incident, please click the image below:

 

“Escambia school’s one-half cent sales tax up for renewal on Nov. 5 ballot” via Mary Lett of the Pensacola News Journal — Escambia County voters will once again have the option of renewing a one-half cent sales tax to benefit Escambia County schools. First passed in 1997, the one-half cent sales tax is on the Nov. 5 ballot. If passed, the 10-year referendum will take effect Jan. 1, 2028. The current referendum – passed in 2014 – expires on Dec. 31, 2027. The one-half cent sales tax pays for the construction of new schools and renovations and additions to existing schools. Funds can also be used for land acquisition/improvements, upgrading and equipping schools with technology. “There are no other funds to do what we do without the one-half cent sales tax,” said Keith Wasdin, director of facilities planning for Escambia County Public Schools, noting the sales tax is earmarked for student-used facilities. “It is not used for any ancillary facilities.”

— LOCAL: SW FL —

“Political newcomers Tal Siddique, Diana Shoemaker compete for Manatee County Commission District 3” via Ryan Ballogg of the Bradenton Herald — Two political newcomers will face off for the District 3 seat on the Manatee County Commission in the Nov. 5 General Election. Republican candidate Siddique and Democratic candidate Shoemaker seek to represent Anna Maria Island, part of Longboat Key, part of Bradenton and the areas of Cortez, Palma Sola, Rubonia and Terra Ceia. Siddique, 30, defeated Republican challenger April Culbreath in the August Primary. Siddique says he would focus on infrastructure improvements, economic growth, reducing property taxes, improving water quality, and putting residents before special interests. Shoemaker, 66, says she would focus on infrastructure improvements, affordable housing, protecting wetlands and the environment, government transparency, and listening to residents over special interests.

—“More than 100,000 Manatee County voters have cast ballots in the General Election” via Jesse Mendoza of the Sarasota Herald-Tribune

“Tax referendum means millions for Sarasota County Schools. Here’s how it works” via Heather Bushman of the Sarasota Herald-Tribune — A ballot measure in this year’s General Election could secure critical funding for Sarasota County Schools. The county’s long-standing millage referendum, which generates funding for the School District through a surtax, is up for renewal in the Nov. 5 General Election. If the ballot item passes, it would renew the surtax from 2026-2030 and generate an estimated $114 million in revenue for the School District each year it’s in effect. An identical referendum is up also for renewal in Manatee County, though an approval would renew its tax from 2025-2029. The millage tax equals $1 for every $1,000 assessed on a property, meaning the School District would net $300 from a property with an assessed value of $300,000.

—“40% turnout on Day Seven of early voting in Sarasota County” via Allyson Henning of WFLA

— TOP OPINION —

“Trump’s dominating the news again. Maybe that’s good news for Harris.” via Nate Silver of the Silver Bulletin — Press coverage of the rally was harsh. The New York Times gave its liberal critics the sort of headline they’ve been pining for — “A Closing Carnival of Grievances, Misogyny and Racism.” Even Reuters, typically known for its reserved, neutral headlines, went with “Trump headlines Madison Square Garden rally after vulgar, racist remarks from allies.” Hinchcliffe called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage,” a remark that even the Trump campaign and Florida Sen. Scott quickly distanced themselves from. Rudy Giuliani said Harris was “on the side of the terrorists” in the Middle East. Another speaker called Harris “the devil.”

Do swing voters care about NYT headlines? Absolutely not, which is why it’s strange that the Times’s critics are so obsessed with them. But there’s some initial evidence that the rally is drawing broader attention: today and yesterday are the top days of Google search traffic for Trump since the second assassination attempt against him in September.

But the MSG rally does show some signs of going viral. Google searches for Hinchliffe have — presumably temporarily — surpassed those for Taylor Swift.

As I wrote about last week, Harris is more popular than Trump. Still, he has had trouble driving a substantive message — partly because she’s running away from her unpopular positions in 2019 and her unpopular boss, President Joe Biden. So, a final week that’s all about Trump — and shows off some of the most unappealing elements of his campaign — could throw Harris a lifeline.

— OPINIONS —

“There’s one main culprit if Trump wins” via Bret Stephens of The New York Times — Should Harris lose the Presidential Election next month, those will be among the more convenient excuses Democrats will offer for falling short in a race against a staggeringly flawed, widely detested opponent. But it lets off the hook the main culprit: how leading liberal voices in government, academia and media practice politics today. Consider its main components. The politics of condescension, typified by Obama’s suggestion this month that Black men might be reluctant to vote for Harris because they “just aren’t feeling the idea of having a woman as President.” Perhaps those men are responding to something more mundane: Median weekly wages for full-time Black workers rose steeply during Trump’s presidency and essentially stagnated under Biden, according to data from the St. Louis Fed. Why reach for the insulting explanation when a rational one will do? The politics of name-calling, which happens every time Trump’s voters are told they are racists, misogynists, weird, phobic, low-information or, most recently, supporters of a fascist — and, by implication, fascists themselves. The politics of gaslighting, exemplified by all the MSNBC talking heads who repeatedly vouched for Biden’s mental acuity when, as Rep. Dean Phillips has acknowledged, the President’s decline has been obvious for years.

“Four lessons from nine years of being ‘Never Trump’” via David French of The New York Times — Here are four things I wish my 2024 self could travel back and say to 2015 me, a much more naive writer for National Review. Community is more powerful than ideology. The story we told ourselves behind closed doors was the story we told in public — the Republican Party was a party of ideas and those ideas defined the party. Right until they didn’t. Trump has changed the equation entirely. We don’t know our true values until they’re tested. I’m haunted by something a liberal friend told me when we were reminiscing about the Clinton years before the Trump era. “I’m not proud of some of our defenses of Clinton,” he said, “But I wonder if Republicans would behave any differently if the cost of holding to their values was losing a President.” Hatred is the prime motivating force in our politics. If you made me write a one-sentence explanation for why the Republican community abandoned its ideology, much less why it abandoned its morality and began to support Trump, I’d say, “It’s negative partisanship.” Finally, trust is tribal.

“In Florida, ‘The Purge’ means something different from in horror movies” via Pat Beall for the Orlando Sentinel — It can be hard to vote. Long lines play havoc with work schedules. Kids have to be picked up from school. You might need a ride. But before you call it off as too much hassle or convince yourself that your one vote doesn’t matter, it’s worth revisiting who is out there trying to keep you from casting that vote. There are the usual suspects. The Governor and his anti-Amendment 4, fib-ridden lackeys come to mind. Voter suppression can also fly under the radar, though, like the Lake Worth man who gathered up the names of a few dozen Palm Beach County voters, arguing they were fraudulent.

“Empower young voters through civic engagement” via Glen Gilzean of the Orlando Sentinel — There’s an old saying: “Government goes to those who show up.” But in today’s rapidly changing world, how do we ensure that the next generation not only shows up but understands the importance of their role in proactively shaping our republic? As Orange County Supervisor of Elections, I’ve overseen five elections in the past six and half months. With my next election on Nov. 5, I’m looking forward to engaging our community once again. We need a pipeline into the next generation of election workers. We must prioritize pre-registering high school students to vote, ensuring they are ready to cast their ballot as soon as they turn 18. By prioritizing registration, we’re engaging them in the process early and ensuring that when their time comes, they’re equipped to make informed decisions at the ballot box.

“Edward Longe: Florida at the digital crossroads — tech challenges await newly elected lawmakers in 2025” via Florida Politics — As Florida continues to position itself as a hub for technological advancement and innovation, the decisions made in legislative offices, committee rooms, and voting chambers will likely have far-reaching implications for the state’s future, affecting everything from job creation and economic growth to education and quality of life for Floridians. Arguably, the most prominent issue legislators will face in 2025 is Artificial Intelligence (AI), specifically, how AI technology should be regulated as it becomes more widely used and touches every aspect of daily life. Owing to misguided concerns that AI is displacing workers or discriminating against marginalized communities, there are calls to implement stringent reporting and transparency regulations on AI, similar to those recently passed in Colorado and vetoed in California. Such a move could have significant consequences for Florida’s reputation as a state that embraces innovation and entrepreneurship and its standing as a bastion of limited government.

— INSTAGRAM OF THE DAY —

— ALOE —

“Jon Stewart extends ‘Daily Show’ run through 2025” via Rick Porter of The Hollywood Reporter — Stewart isn’t quite ready to let go of his weekly Daily Show gig. Comedy Central announced Monday that Stewart has signed an extension that will keep him as a once-a-week host and full-time executive producer of The Daily Show through December 2025. The news comes just over nine months after Stewart made a deal to return to the show he hosted from 1998-2015. That initial deal had Stewart hosting the show once a week (usually Monday nights) through the Presidential Election. With Election Day looming (and Stewart set to host a live, hourlong special on Nov. 5), the extension will keep Stewart on The Daily Show through the first year of the next President’s term.

“‘Moana 2’ debuts first 30 minutes as sequel’s team promises ‘epic scale’” via Ryan Gajewski of The Hollywood Reporter — The team behind Moana 2 is ready to welcome viewers back into the powerful world of the title characters and her fellow islanders. During a press event at Walt Disney Animation Studios in Burbank, California, the filmmakers debuted the first 30 minutes from the sequel to the 2016 animated feature. After screening the footage, co-directors David Derrick Jr., Jason Hand and Dana Ledoux Miller and co-writer Jared Bush — who is Disney Animation’s new chief creative officer — took the stage to tease the new adventures for Moana that take place three years after the first movie.

“Like a magnet, 65th Fort Lauderdale International Boat Show is poised to jolt local economy, lift seller spirits” via David Lyons of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel — Amid wars overseas, inflation and lofty energy prices, the land of bountiful marine industry opportunity is in America, and at this moment in late October, the focal point is the Fort Lauderdale International Boat Show. For the 65th year, the world’s largest annual in-water boat show kicks off at noon Wednesday with another strong roster of vessels of all sizes for the rich and not-so-rich: An estimated 100,000-plus visitors are expected to traverse seven venues at the show to view more than 1,300 vessels and maybe talk some business with more than 1,000 exhibitors.

— HAPPY BIRTHDAY —

Best wishes to state Rep. Melony Bell and former state Rep. George Moraitis, Kristen Bridges of GrayRobinson, Rivers Buford III, Anthony Pardal, and Caroline Rowland.

___

Sunburn is authored and assembled by Peter Schorsch, Phil Ammann, Daniel Dean, Ryan Nicol, Jacob Ogles, and Drew Wilson.