A.G. Gancarski
Florida’s Senate race will be decided by just a few percentage points overall, and independents are breaking for the challenger, but will apparently be overwhelmed in the end by a GOP turnout advantage.
That’s the big takeaway from a Florida Atlantic University poll of 897 likely voters, conducted between Oct. 19 through Oct. 27, which shows Republican Rick Scott headed for a second term against Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.
Scott is at 50%, with his challenger 4 points back, despite Mucarsel-Powell’s 55% to 37% lead with independents surveyed.
The problem for those looking to flip Scott’s Senate seat boils down to his durability with Republicans and GOP domination in recent years in terms of party registration. And that trend reflects in the sample.
Just 162 independents and 317 Democrats were polled, as compared to the 418 Republicans surveyed.
Mucarsel-Powell, an Ecuadorian American who served one term in the House, can’t get much stronger with Democrats.
Inside her own party, she leads Scott 95% to 1%.
But she’s inspiring little crossover vote. Scott leads 92% to 5% with Republican voters.
In terms of voter performance, Mucarsel-Powell is far ahead with mail voters, 66% to 32%. But Scott leads with those who show up rather than trust the Postal Service. He’s up 54% to 41% with early in-person voters.
And on Election Day, he likely will stretch his lead, taking 66% to his challenger’s 32%.
More than 5 million Floridians have voted, and more than 45% are Republicans.
As of the close of business Monday, of the 2,925,439 people who voted early in person, 1,523,153 are Republicans, with 790,744 Democrats, 65,678 people registered with other parties, and 545,864 no-party voters having shown up to make their preferences known. And of the 2,216,476 mail ballots cast, Democrats number 935,189 of the total absentee ballots, with Republicans responsible for 795,495 of their own. Another 45,638 third-party members and 440,154 no-party voters have also voted by mail.
The gender gap also plays in Scott’s favor in this race. The Democrat leads 50% to 45% with women, but the Naples Republican is up 54% to 42% with men.
Meanwhile, Scott is a slight favorite with voters of all ages. He’s up 47% to 46% with those under 50 years old. Among those 50 and older, the Senator leads 52% to 46%.
Mucarsel-Powell leads with Black voters (84% to 10%) and with Hispanics (51% to 45%).
Scott has White voters on lock. The Senator is up 52% to 45% with those who have been to college, and 62% to 35% with those who have not.
22 comments
Let Me Be Clear
October 29, 2024 at 3:25 pm
Gancarski, Nikki Fried is not going out with you and neither is Mucarsel-Powell. Stop trying so hard.
A day without Libturds
October 29, 2024 at 3:35 pm
She only dates Ukrainian warlords
White Spiteful Devil Trump
October 29, 2024 at 3:57 pm
You are ignorant,their are no Ukraine warlords,only oligarchs
A day without Libturds
October 29, 2024 at 4:11 pm
Her campaign donors are public record, stupid lying libturd freak. Have someone show you how to use Google.
MH/Duuuval
October 29, 2024 at 5:20 pm
The records show that the gentleman in question is a Jewish citizen of Israel who is one of the richest men in Ukraine before he had to leave post haste. In short, the profile of many men lined up to assist DJT.
The Maidan uprising resulted in a victory for democrats and those oligarchs who supported the losers had to leave. Get it?
A day without Libturds
October 29, 2024 at 3:27 pm
Ding bat Debbie is done. She and her husband get paid by warlords in the Ukraine. Then there’s stolen valor weirdo waltz, also goes by tampon Tim. Both he and Swalwell are chinese puppets. Democrats are the real threat.
A day without Douchetards
October 29, 2024 at 3:32 pm
F*ck you Billy B*tthole, just another of your avatars.
A day without Libturds
October 29, 2024 at 3:39 pm
What are you babbling about now Libturd? Pull the dik out of your mouth.
A Day without libturds
November 7, 2024 at 8:25 pm
The majority told you to eat shit. Enjoy your new dinner. Turd eater
White Spiteful Devil Trump
October 29, 2024 at 3:59 pm
You deserve the government that Trump gave you and the hell that go along with from your White Spiteful Devil Trump
A day without Libturds
October 29, 2024 at 4:13 pm
Cheap gas, less expensive groceries, more affordable housing, a secure border. Yeah that’s what you libturds call hell. You deserve the opposite.
A day without Libturds
October 29, 2024 at 4:14 pm
Yes. Cheap gas, affordable housing and groceries. A secure border too. Sounds like heaven.
MH/Duuuval
October 30, 2024 at 2:51 pm
What the hay — let’s put the lead back into gasoline and improve mileage.
A Day without libturds
November 7, 2024 at 8:24 pm
Put the cock back in your mouth
A Day without libturds
November 7, 2024 at 8:23 pm
You deserve a shit sandwich
White Spiteful Devil Trump
October 29, 2024 at 4:00 pm
You mouth has been used as tampons,on many occasions
A day without Libturds
October 29, 2024 at 4:09 pm
You should abort yourself
PeterH
October 29, 2024 at 3:38 pm
You’ll know more on election night! Neither the Republican Party voters nor the Democratic Party voters make the decision of who sits in the Oval Office……educated moderate independent voters make that decision.
Let Me Be Clear
October 29, 2024 at 3:40 pm
Are you still calling yourself an independent? LMFAO
A day without Libturds
October 29, 2024 at 4:15 pm
He goes by many names.
MH/Duuuval
October 29, 2024 at 6:51 pm
There are numerous independent voters in Florida — it’s almost as if there were three parties. Independents could determine the winners in Florida.
MH/Duuuval
October 30, 2024 at 9:32 am
Theere is also the slim possibility that MAGA women will vote with their gender and not with Goober.
Comments are closed.