Staff Reports
Last Call – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.
First Shot
More than 5 million Floridians have voted, and the Republican advantage is growing.
The Florida Division of Elections reports that county election supervisors received about 2.22 million mail ballots and 2.93 million early votes as of Tuesday.
Republicans have been winning the turnout battle from the start and continue piling on. The latest data shows 1.5 million GOP voters have cast a ballot in person — more than half the total early in-person vote — and 795,000 have voted by mail.
At 935,000, Democrats still lead in mail ballots, though they remain woefully behind in early in-person voting. Their current in-person tally is 791,000, or about half what Republicans have managed.
Overall, 2.32 million Republicans have voted, representing 45% of the turnout thus far. Democratic turnout is 1.73 million, or about 34% of the total ballots cast. Third — and no-party voters account for the remainder.
The Division of Elections reports another 1.3 million voters have been sent mail-in ballots but have not yet returned them.
In the last presidential election, 4.86 million Floridians voted by mail, and 4.33 million voted early in person for a combined tally of 9.19 million. The split between the major parties was 39%-38%, an advantage for Democrats. Donald Trump went on to win the state by 3.3%
Evening Reads
—”Kamala Harris’ closing message might be a mistake” via Eric Levitz of Vox
—”Inside Donald Trump’s Truth Social conspiracy theory machine” via Neil Bedi, Lazaro Gamio, Ishaan Jhaveri, Devon Lum, Haley Willis and Karen Yourish of The New York Times
—”These Pennsylvania election officials are pro-Trump conspiracists” via Justin Glawe of Rolling Stone
—”How the Trump campaign’s gamble on a provocative comic backfired” via Natalie Andrews and Vivian Salama of The Wall Street Journal
—”Where’s Ivanka?” via Jesse McKinley of The New York Times
—”Trump’s dominating the news again. Maybe that’s good news for Harris.” via Nate Silver of the Silver Bulletin
—”How not to freak out about the election” via Chris Cillizza of So What
—“How to prevent the worst from happening” via Peter Wehner of The Atlantic
—”2024 has fewer polls, but they are higher quality” via Mary Radcliffe, Cooper Burton, and Amina Brown of FiveThirtyEight
—“How education and religion have redrawn America’s political map” via Shadi Hamid of The Washington Post
Quote of the Day
“While this case isn’t over, this second ruling is once again a critical victory for every Floridian who believes in democracy and the sanctity of the First Amendment.”
— Yes on 4 Campaign Director Lauren Brenzel, on the ruling barring the state from threatening TV stations that play pro-abortion rights political ads.
Put it on the Tab
Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.
A favorable court ruling and another poll showing the abortion rights amendment falling short earns the Yes on 4 team a Block and Fall.
It’s close, but if new polling is accurate, recreational pot backers will celebrate with a P.A.S.S. next week.
Following a Summer of upbeat news, October’s Hurricane strikes sowed doubt among Florida consumers. Our prescription: When in Doubt, Mix it Out.
Breakthrough Insights
Tune In
Dodgers on doorstep of championship
The Los Angeles Dodgers can clinch a World Series title tonight with a win over the New York Yankees (8:08 p.m. ET, FOX).
Los Angeles took the series’ first three games, including a dramatic Game 1 win on World Series history’s first walk-off grand slam. Freddie Freeman provided the heroics in the 10th inning. Then, in Game 2, Freeman homered again in a 4-2 Dodgers victory.
In yesterday’s Game 3 at Yankee Stadium, Freeman homered for the third straight game in the series, leading LA to another 4-2 victory.
The Dodgers are hopeful that star Shohei Ohtani will continue to play without additional issues after partially dislocating his shoulder in Game 2. Ohtani played in Game 3, going hitless in three at-bats and scoring a run.
With a win in the Bronx, the Dodgers can earn their eighth World Series title and first since 2020.
No team in World Series history has returned from three games to none down to win the series. It has happened only once in postseason history. The 2004 Boston Red Sox overcame a 3-0 deficit to beat the New York Yankees in the American League Championship Series. In 2020, the Houston Astros came back from 3-0 down to force a game seven but lost to the Tampa Bay Rays.
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Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.
